Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad is showing both the West and Russia where he thinks they should go
Photo: AP
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Iran Holds Out Its Hand to Moscow
// Teheran blackmails Moscow and shoots down its foreign policy initiative
Diplomacy
Last Saturday, President of Iran Mahmud Ahmadinejad announced that Teheran would never refute its right to develop the peaceful atom, and threatened to withdraw from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. The next day, Western media carried a report about a plan developed by the Pentagon for a military strike against nuclear facilities in Iran. Russia is preparing for decisive negotiations with the Iranian government, hinting to the West that its special relationship with the Islamic Republic is reason for hope a peaceful solution to the crisis. In the meantime, Teheran has been able to manipulate and blackmail Moscow, threatening to break off all economic and political ties with Russia.
“We Will Fight, We Will Die!”
On Saturday, Iran celebrated the 27th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution. Demonstrations were held throughout the country with the familiar chants of “Down with the U.S.A.” and “Down with Israel.” Iran's right to independent research of the peaceful atomic was added to the rhetorical stock this time. The biggest demonstration was in Teheran, where it was led personally by President Ahmadinejad, who was a revolutionary 27 years ago. Tens of thousands of people gathered in the morning near Independence Square. Young men dressed in white, symbolizing their readiness to die for their homeland, stood out in the crowd. Schoolchildren ran around them wearing T-shirts with “Peaceful atomic energy is our right” written on them. State television called the demonstrations “the atomic referendum,” at which the country's people showed their approval of the authorities' policy.
“The nuclear policy of the Islamic Republic has an exclusively peaceful character. We have worked until now within the framework of IAEA rules and the obligations we have taken on in the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty,” Ahmadinejad told thousands of supporters. “But if anyone wants to deprive us of our legal rights to the peaceful atom, he should be ready for the Iranian people to reconsider its policy.” “We will fight, we will die,” the crowd chanted in response. Experts suggest that Ahmadinejad did not have war in mind when he spoke. Instead, they say, Iran may quit the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and International Atomic Energy Agency as a protest against Western pressure.
Last weekend, IAEA inspectors, at Iran's insistence, disassembled most of its video cameras and removed its seals from most Iranian nuclear facilities. At the same time, Iran has yet to reject a Russian proposal to set up a joint enterprise to enrich uranium on Russian Territory. On February 16, an Iranian delegation arrives in Moscow to discuss the details of that proposal. The United States and European Union stated long ago that they like the proposal, which would allow the world community to prevent Iran from making nuclear weapons, but the Islamic Republic would receive fuel for its generators.
Moscow is hoping to reap some benefits and, in the case of successful negotiations with Teheran, show its diplomatic uniqueness, including the ability to hold a dialog with distasteful regimes. Putin's invitation of leaders of the Palestinian extremist group Hamas to Moscow is the latest example of the Kremlin's idee fixe to make a place for itself as top negotiator with such internationally disfavored regimes as Iran, North Korea and Syria. So far, that practice has brought it nothing good.
Teheran Plays Moscow
The Kremlin's chances for successfully realizing its far-reaching plans this time are extremely small, since all initiative lies in Iranian hands. From the very beginning of the crisis, Teheran has ostentatiously ignored Russia's advice to show restraint and not provoke the world community into harsh measures. This was especially obvious after Moscow's idea of forming a joint enterprise to enrich uranium for Iranian atomic facilities. Teheran stalled for several months, pretending that there never had been such a proposal and it had never received any documents from Moscow on the matter. But the leaders of the Islamic Republic received all the necessary documents for the enterprise long ago.
Nothing changed after Teheran acknowledged the existence of Moscow's plan and its readiness to discuss it. Iran confirmed Russian plan, but with a huge number of conditions, most of which reduce the idea behind it to nothing.
In particular, Iran is insisting that the joint enterprise operate only for two years. And Iranian specialists should have constant and unimpeded access to all technical processes of uranium enrichment at the joint enterprise. At the same time, the ban on research in that field is to be lifted at Iranian nuclear facilities. In addition, Moscow should convince the EU to renew negotiations with Iran so that, after two years of working with the joint enterprise in Russia, it can begin enriching uranium on an industrial scale on its own territory. The West will clearly never agree to those conditions, and so the question of sanctions against Iran will come up again eventually any way.
Teheran is counting on Russia resorting to the use of its veto in the UN Security Council when it votes on imposing sanctions. Teheran is threatening Moscow with sure punishment otherwise. According to information obtained by Kommersant from various sources, including high placed officials of the Islamic Republic, it has repeatedly been made clear to the Kremlin that, if it should go over to the Western side in the dialog over the Iranian atom, it can forget about any further political or economic cooperation with Teheran. In monetary terms, that would be a loss of billions of dollars for Moscow.
As far as political cooperation Teheran is threatening to withhold goes, however, Iran is in fact working against Moscow already. Even as the Kremlin soothes itself with the hope of convincing Hamas of compromising with Israel and the West, Teheran has been urging its leaders to stand firm and is even ready to pay them to do so. Hamas leader Khaled Mashal was in Teheran in late January. The Iranians promised him to take care of the group ad allocate it $1 billion – in exchange for maintaining its anti-Israel and anti-Western stance, of course.
The results of the negotiations with the Iranians were quickly seen. Yesterday, official Hamas representative Abu Zukhri warned Russian authorities against trying to alter the group's “general line” in talks in Moscow. “Russia will listen to Hamas, and Hamas will listen to Moscow,” he said.
Conversation Over
At the same time, the U.S. administration seems to have decided everything for itself. Washington has been working for tougher world policies toward Iran for years. This year has begun very successfully for the White House. At the end of January, the Americans were able to convince all the permanent members of the UN Security Council, including Russia and China, that the time has come to give the Iranian issue to the Security Council. In spite of the stipulation of Moscow and Beijing that discussion of practical measures be put off until March, the process is going in the direction Washington wants.
Yesterday, reports appeared in several media that the U.S. is preparing for a military operation against Iran. The British Sunday Telegraph quotes a Pentagon source as saying that the plans are quite practical. That newspaper says that the American military is not considering a ground force invasion of the Islamic Republic, but a missile attack on nuclear and military facilities in Iran. B-52 bombers, capable of carrying up to 20 tons of bombs, would likely be used in the operation. He operation would depend on pinpoint weaponry, especially highly powerful bombs to destroy underground bunkers, since most Iranian nuclear objects are concealed deep inside cliffsides. The U.S. Marines will provide support to the Air Force. In particular, according to the Sunday Telegraph, American Trident submarines are changing the nuclear warheads on their ballistic missiles to conventional ones. U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld is overseeing the operation personally.
Alexander Reutov
All the Article in Russian as of Feb. 13, 2006
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