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Bribing Eurasia
// Russia is ready to pay half a billion dollars for leadership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization
Anniversary of the SCO
The fifth anniversary summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization opens today in Shanghai. Russia, China and the Central Asian nations are supposed show there that their anti-NATO establishment in eastern Eurasia is making headway. For that purpose, the member states will probably allow themselves some anti-American pronouncements and make a decision to fight their virtual opposition on the Internet. In addition, Kommersant has learned, Russia may announce its intention to allot half a billion dollars for the development of the organization in order to increase its standing in the organization and challenge China for its leadership.
Security uber Alles
Its members prepared thoroughly for this anniversary of the organization. For almost a year, SCO members have been working to turn the organization into an Anti-NATO, a military-political bloc in the eastern part of Eurasia. Although the leaders of the member states usually brush aside comparisons with NATO, the fact speak for themselves. And that position is expected to be made official at the current summit. The SCO should now acquire a secretary general (in place of the executive secretary). The Kazakh representative will replace Chinese executive secretary Zhang Deguang in that new capacity. Then there will be a concluding declaration. Last year's summit declaration, demanding the removal of American military bases from Central Asia, was a sensation. Remembering the splash they made, the leaders will obviously try to repeat the performance this year.
Shanghai began its preparations for the holiday last month. The police were placed on high alert. In the last few days, the Kommersant correspondent was stopped on the street several times and taken to the nearest police station to establish her identity. It looks as though the Chinese police, who usually avoid foreigners, are taking a lesson from their Russian colleagues.
The Shanghai mayor's office, besides tightening security, has been busy sprucing the city up. All major streets and squares have been adorned with bright SCO emblems. At the confluence of the Huangpu River and Suzhou Creek, in the very center of the city, a new dock was quickly built for the VIP guests to board riverboats from. The Shanghai Grand Theater and the Museum of Science and Technology have been cleaned off again so that President of the People's Republic of China Hu Jintao can take his guests there.
Finally, new flowerbeds have been installed in front of the International Congress Center, where the summit is to be held. Yesterday, the day before the summit opened, a huge crowd of young people was herded into the center. The boys and girls, adorned with red ribbons, formed column and shouted several slogans about loyalty to the “Shanghai spirit” and then dispersed.
The first guests began arriving at Shanghai's Pudong Airport on the evening of June 13. Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbaev was the first. He was followed by the leaders of two observer states, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf and Mongolian President Nambaryn Enkhbayer. Yesterday, Tajik President Emomali Rakhmonov, Uzbek President Islam Karimov and Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiev arrived, as well as summit “guest” Afghan President Hamid Karzai. Last to arrive were Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Each president was met at the airport by Chinese leaders, who were accompanied by little girls carrying big bouquets.
The only country represented by someone other than its head of state was India, which also has observer status in the organization. Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas Murli Deora represented that country. This glaring breach of protocol is probably due to India's displeasure with Chinese politics. Warm relations between Beijing and Islamabad are developing against a background of strained relations with Delhi. The Indian government may intend to show that its interest in relations with the SCO states is mainly based on energy and not military and political cooperation.
It is worth noting that Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko did not come to the summit. Minsk is eager to join the SCO as soon as possible. The Kremlin is skeptical of it prospects. The final decision on Belarus was made last week. At a meeting with Altai Territory Governor Alexander Karlin, Lukashenko stated that he would make no concessions to Moscow. He rejected the possibility of the country being absorbed by Russia. “We don't need that. Belarus is a beautiful and independent country,” he said of it. He also rejected the idea of selling Beltransgaz on Russian terms. After that, there was no hope of Belarus getting into the SCO. Kommersant has obtained information that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told Belarusian Foreign Minister Sergey Martynov that the country could not join the SCO because Kazakhstan was against enlarging the organization.
Fighting a Virtual Enemy
Ideologically, the summit is expected to be marked by a growing level of anti-Americanism. Karimov set the tone immediately after landing. “Events in recent years have exposed the face of the genuine and spurious friends of the region's countries,” the Uzbek leader hinted. Then, so that no doubts could remain in journalists' minds, he added, “We are united in decisive resistance to attempts from outside to tie out countries to Western standards of paths to democratization and social development.”
Obviously, most of the statements issuing from the summit will be in a similar vein. The key intention of the anniversary summit is to confirm the organization's status as the basic and exclusive regional organization that will take responsibility for events in that region. Summit participants will probably take advantage of Karzai's presence to criticize the actions of the Western coalition in Afghanistan.
Both Russia and China are trying to block the growth of American influence in Central Asia. The Russian and Chinese leaders will most likely pursue that goal separately with the leaders of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, who they suspect of trying to win on both sides. According to information obtained by Kommersant, a clause is planned in the summit declaration prohibiting member states from participating in any other regional organizations, also as a way of stopping the spread of American influence.
Another important topic at the summit will be aid to Central Asian regimes to strengthen their power. The SCO has long had a policing function and plans for joint measures in reaction to threats to security in the region are expected to be completed by the end of the year. In addition, agreements on organizational procedures, joint antiterrorist actions in SCO member states and cooperation to secure the member states' borders against individuals involved in terrorist, separatist or extremist organizations will also be signed.
A Kommersant source said that one more element in the fight against the opposition in Central Asia may be presented at the summit. The participants are to sign a “Statement on International Information Security.” That document will introduce the idea of “security in the informational sphere,” by which is meant the establishment of government control at national and international level over electronic media and the Internet. The document will be based on China's “positive” experience imposing control over Internet resources and providers and will suggest a system of measures to apply Chinese methods to other SCO countries. Obviously, it does not envisage totally subordinating providers to the state in the Chinese manner, but the document will mention the need to fight the use of the Internet for criminal or terrorist purposes. That means that the “Statement” could be a huge blow to the opposition in Central Asian countries. In Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, opposition mostly exists online. Most of the opponents of those regimes live in exile and maintain ties with their fellow countrymen through the Internet. A significant number of the websites of opposition organizations and independent Internet publications operate out of Russia. “Imposing order” on the Internet in that region will drive dissent even further underground.
Unlimited Generosity
Another sensation at the summit may be Putin's speech. A Kommersant source said that Moscow has prepared an argument for its taking the leadership of the organization. The Kremlin has been offended by assessments of the organization as exclusively pro-Chinese and of Russia's role as the junior partner in it. Therefore, a new plan has been hatched to increase Russia's role in the region. It is noteworthy that Russia's effort will copies a Chinese move. Not long ago, Beijing announced that it was allotting $920 million to build up the SCO. Moscow reacted to the grant with envy, thinking that, even before it pays out a single dollar, it will be able to claim special geopolitical donor's privileges. So Russia decided to follow China's example.
Putin is expected to announce $500 million in financing for the Central Asian countries. That money may go to the poorest of the region's countries, and Uzbekistan is seen as the first aid recipient. Officially the money will be called credits, but no one will be required to pay Russia back – the debts will be cancelled.
According to information obtained by Kommersant, the Russian Finance Ministry was opposed to Russia's Shanghai gesture, considering the country's ambitions too expensive. That is why it remained uncertain until the last minute whether the Russian leader would name a specific sum or speak abstractly.
Alexander Gabuev, Shanghai; Mikhail Zygar
All the Article in Russian as of June 15, 2006
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