Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) and his Uzbek counterpart Islam Karimov (left) during the meeting in Kremlin.
Photo: Dmitry Azarov
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A Visit of Self-Protection
// Islam Karimov pleads Russia’s patronage
Russian President Vladimir Putin meets his Uzbek counterpart Islam Karimov in Sochi. A year after Andijan massacre, Karimov finds serious reasons to be afraid for his regime’s stability, feeling more and more pressure from the West. Russia’s relations with the West have also cooled down recently, which was reflected in Putin’s address to the Federal Assembly. In this situation Russia is ready to help its eclipsing ally retain power. Yet, Moscow demands considerable economic and geopolitical concessions from Tashkent in exchange for security assurances.
Friend at the Gate
Islam Karimov stored up a lot of new points to discuss with Putin since their last meeting in January 2006. According to Kommersant’s information, Karimov became particularly insistent on meeting with Putin right after Kyrgyzstan's President Kurmanbek Bakiyev visited Moscow last month. Apparently, Kremlin’s super-warm reception of Kyrgyz leader made Karimov uneasy. Islam Karimov never was friends with his revolutionary neighbor, and have completely fallen out with him after Bishkek refused Tashkent’s demand to give out refugees from Andijan, and, on the contrary, helped transfer them to the West. Obviously, successful talks between Putin and Bakiyev (they have agreed on expanding Russia’s military presence in Kyrgyzstan) have seriously alarmed Islam Karimov. In fact, Karimov’s circle of political contacts narrowed after Andijan massacre, and Russia is practically the only country where Karimov, a persona non grata in the West, is still welcomed.
Uzbek president is also alarmed at the U.S. and the EU’s increasing pressure on Tashkent. Senator John McCane, the Republican candidate for the upcoming presidential election in the U.S., has recently announced that a special bill for sanctions against Uzbekistan is drafted. Senator McCane proposes to ban Uzbek leaders from entry to the U.S., to arrest their bank accounts abroad, and to halt weapon export to Uzbekistan. “Karimov’s government became even more draconian in a year that passed since Andijan massacre. Tortures have become a common practice with Uzbek security officials,” said Senator McCane to justify the sanctions.
Such stand of the West right before the G8 summit in St. Petersburg doesn’t look very promising to Tashkent. The U.S. may quite possibly ask summit host Russia to include the Uzbekistan issue into the forum’s agenda. If G8 members pass a special document on Uzbekistan, it will strongly weaken Islam Karimov’s regime. In this situation, Russia’s protection is the only hope for Tashkent. According to Kommersant’s information, this is precisely what Karimov will be pressing for during his meeting with Putin.
Weak position of Uzbek president plays into Kremlin’s hands. Russia intends to gain economic benefits through the intricate situation of its Central Asian ally. High-ranking Russian officials and top managers of state monopolies have lately become regular visitors to Tashkent. Gazprom chairman of the board Alexey Miller met with Karimov early in 2006. After that, Federation Council speaker Sergey Mironov visited Tashkent. The talks mostly concerned admitting Russian companies to developing largest natural gas fields in Uzbekistan (Urga, Kuanysh, and Akchalakskie group), and uranium and gold mines. First Deputy Prime Minister of Russia Dmitry Medvedev visited Karimov last week. It is likely that his aim was to settle down Russia-Uzbekistan energy agreements so that presidents Putin and Karimov may sign them during their meeting today.
A Turning Shot
The Putin-Karimov meeting takes place close to the anniversary of Andijan uprising repression on May 13, 2005. In a year since Andijan massacre, Uzbek authorities have completely cleaned out political and information discrepancies, and erased the remnants of the opposition.
This process went through several stages. First, Uzbek authorities tried to smother up the “Andijan case” as soon as possiple. Investigation and trials of “uprising instigators” were carried out in an exceptionally short time. During the trials the suspects pleaded guilty, one after another, to the charges of participating in Akramia extremist movement, of intending to found an Islamic caliphate in Fergan valley, and of scheming the uprising, being financed by the U.S. More than 160 people were imprisoned before 2006.
Having done away with the “instigators”, the authorities got down to human rights defenders. The first to go to jail were those defenders whose point of view on Andijan’s events did not coincide with the official one. The second to jail were foreign NGOs—Uzbekistan has almost rid itself of these. The authorities also made a go at mass media. Uzbek Ministry of Foreign Affairs deprived journalists of Svoboda radio station of accreditation, while British news service BBC closed its Tashkent headquarters saying that BBC journalists suffer persecution. Independent Uzbek journalists were less fortunate than their foreign colleagues. Two months ago, famous Tashkent human rights activist and journalist Mutabar Tadjibaeva was sentenced to 8 years in prison.
Tashkent’s relations with the West have chilled down after Andijan events. The U.S. and the EU, who considered Uzbekistan a most important partner for anti-terror campaign in Afghanistan before May 13, 2005, demanded a transparent investigation of the tragedy with the help of international experts. Karimov chased American troops out of Karshi-Khanabad air-base in reply. Americans left, but the pressure on Karimov has been increasing since then.
The EU put an embargo on selling weapons to Uzbekistan and banned Uzbek leaders from entry to EU countries in October 2005. Brussels justified sanctions by “indiscriminate use of force” to suppress Andijan uprising, and by hindering independent investigation. Late in 2005, US Congress submitted a draft resolution demanding George Bush to “use the voice of the U.S.” to make the UN Security Council pass the case of Islam Karimov, “guilty of massacre in Andijan on May 13, 2005,” to the International Criminal Court. US Department of State suspended financial aid to Tashkent (nearly $21 million per year).
British Prime Minister Tony Blair suddenly remembered Islam Karimov this week. In his speech to the House of Commons, Blair reminded its members of the limitations already imposed on Uzbekistan by the EU. He also said that “Great Britain considers the possibility of tightening sanctions against Uzbekistan and promotes through the EU the adoption of corresponding UN resolution.” In future, the pressure on Tashkent will increase—concidering there is Uzbek presidential election scheduled for January 2007.
Geopolitical U-turn
Before Andijan events, Karimov tried to use contradictions inside the China-West-Russia triangle to his advantage. As a member state of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), along with Russia and China, Uzbekistan did everything to be a loyal partner of the West. It opened NATO military bases on its territory, and was a member of anti-Russia GUUAM. After Andijan events, the triangle lost one of its sides. But, in return, Moscow and Beijing became especially interested in Uzbekistan. First of all, Russia and China aim to take control over Uzbek energy resources. Apparently, it is Moscow, and not Beijing, who won the race, since Karimov meets with Putin in Sochi, but not with Hu Jin Tao.
Russia and Uzbekistan have become much closer during the last year. Russia gave unprecedented security assurances to Karimov, and this marked the beginning of big Moscow-Tashkent friendship. Karimov signed 2 most important documents in March. The first one concerns joining Eurasian Economic Community, and the second is the Treaty of Alliance between Uzbekistan and Russia. The latter presupposes that Russia will interfere in any crisis in Uzbekistan threatening Karimov’s regime.
Now Moscow has only to involve Karimov into one more pro-Russia organization— Collective Security Treaty Organization (ODKB). ODKB Secretary General Nikolay Bordyuzha have recently said in Minsk that ODKB is ready to cooperate with Uzbekistan: “If we move on to a higher level due to the steps already taken, then Tashkent can count on joining the ODKB.” According to Kommersant’s information, Karimov will confirm his intention to cooperate with ODKB during his talk with Putin, and will ask for military technical assistance in return. He probably will get it. Uzbekistan is strategically important to Moscow due to several reasons. Control over that country may increase Russia’s influence in neighboring Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. This, in its turn, will reinforce Russia’s position in the SCO. Having made up its own team of Tashkent, Bishkek, and Dushanbe, Moscow will be more on a par with strong Beijing.
Vladimir Solovyev
All the Article in Russian as of May 12, 2006
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