Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Kislyak (left) and U.S. Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns suggest different paths to a settlement of the Iranian nuclear problem.
Photo: AP
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America Makes Its Pitch to Russia
// Iran's fate under negotiation in Moscow
High officials of the United States, Russia, China, Great Britain, France and Germany began negotiations on the Iranian atomic problem yesterday in Moscow. Those negotiations will be continued in negotiations today in meetings on preparations for the G8 summit in St. Petersburg. With the decisive session of the UN Security Council taking place April 28, the positions of the world powers are diametrically opposed. The U.S. is calling for decisive action, while Russia and China oppose sanctions. Moscow's continuing unwillingness to support Washington in its most important foreign policy issue threatens seriously to complicate Russian-American relations and lead to unpleasant surprises for Moscow at the G8 summit.
Just Say No to Pistachios and Carpets!
The American delegation is being led by Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Nicholas Burns, the third-ranked official in the State Department. They arrived in a militant mood. Official State Department spokesman Sean McCormack announced before the delegation left that Burns would discuss the need for significant action against Iran, which is to be considered by the UN Security Council on April 28, when the report by International Atomic Energy Agency head Mohamed ElBaradei presents his report on Iran's fulfillment of the agency's demands. There is no possibility of that report being reassuring to the world community. Last week, ElBaradei made a last-ditch effort during a visit to that country to convince Iranian authorities to stop their work on enriching uranium and reach an agreement with the world community. Iran rejected even the possibility of compromising.
McCormack stated that, during Burns' visit to Moscow, the application of article 7 of the UN Charter (the use of force approved by the Security Council), freezing Iranian assets and limiting the travel of Iranian officials and other measures would be discussed. He also said that those or other measures could be taken against Iran by the United States or European Union independently of the UN Security, although he admitted that, having broken off relations with Iran long ago, the U.S. has few means of punishing Iran by itself. All that remains for Washington to do is prohibit the import into the U.S. of a few traditional Iranian goods, such as pistachios and carpets, which were allowed for import under the administration of Bill Clinton. No sanctions are being considered in Washington against the Iranian oil and natural gas sector, according to official report, because such sanctions would predominantly affect the Iranian people. Analysts note that such a step would further destabilize the oil market, where prices are at a record high already.
Since the U.S. is unable to take any significant measures against Tehran on its own, it is forced to come to an agreement on joint action with other world powers. Burns' mission in Moscow is especially important in that light. This is one of the last chances, if not the very last, for the permanent members of the UN Security Council to reach a consensus on a key international issue that cannot be put off. McCormack hinted that negotiations would be difficult in Moscow. Diplomats and analysts do not expect any results from them on the first day.
Moscow Says Nyet
Statements made by top Russian diplomats before the negotiations in Moscow are to a great extent responsible for expectations of tough going. The Russians implied that Burns' mission in Moscow was practically impossible. “Russia is against the use of international sanctions to solve the Iranian nuclear problem,” official Russian Foreign Ministry representative Mikhail Kamynin stated yesterday. “We are convinced that neither sanctions nor force will lead to a solution to the problem.” Russian diplomats stated their position more fleetingly a day earlier, saying that Russia supported a diplomatic solution to the problem, without specifying whether, after weighing the pros and cons, it would support any sanctions against Iran when the question became unavoidable. Now the tone has become sharper and Russia has said, perhaps stating its position so decisively for the first time, that no measures against Iran by the UN Security Council will even be considered. That is what chief Russian negotiator Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Kislyak has to impress on Burns. The Chinese are also against sanctions. They will be represented by Deputy Foreign Minister Cui Tiankai.
What is the goal of Russian diplomacy in returning to the inflexibility of the times of Andrey Gromyko, who was known in the West as Mr. Nyet? Judging by statements by Russian Permanent Representative at the UN Andrey Denisov on Monday, Russia is still counting on Iran to renew its moratorium on uranium enrichment at the last minute. “Iranians have had a reputation as tough negotiators for many centuries. It is a tradition and, I hope, that we will succeed in reaching a positive final result. We want to remain optimists,” he said at his final press conference in New York before leaving for Moscow to become a deputy foreign minister. “We are counting on Iran to arm itself with a more constructive approach to the dialog with the Security Council and the IAEA,” Denisov said, calling on all parties to “wait until April 28.”
Observers say that Russia's rejection of the idea of sanctions will not facilitate “a more constructive approach” by Iran to the problem. Seeing the division and vacillation among the permanent members of the Security Council, Tehran can conclude that there will be no real punishment for it and take advantage of the situation. Statements from Iran on the eve of the negotiations had a harsh tone. “The opposite result will come from political pressure on the Islamic Republic,” official representative of the Iranian Foreign Ministry Hamid Reza Asefi warned Moscow negotiators yesterday. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said yesterday that Iran will “cut off the hand of any aggressor.” In general, Iran is making it clear that it does not fear sanctions, not even the military operations envisaged in article 7 of the UN Charter. It is hard to see any basis for Russian optimism in the militant rhetoric of the Iranians.
Iran and the G8
Observers also say that Moscow's unyielding position on Iran may have a negative effect on Russian-American relations and throw a pall over the festive atmosphere that the upcoming G8 summit in St. Petersburg is supposed to have for Moscow. Although U.S. President George W. Bush has not gone s far as to admit publicly the error of his Russia policy, Kommersant has obtained information that that policy is undergoing a certain correction. A Kommersant source in Washington said that U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has already instructed subordinates Daniel Fried and Nicholas Burns to develop a tougher position in relation to Moscow. Previously, Rice had preferred to react as mildly as possible to Russian actions, to the amazement of many in Washington.
Kommersant's source suggested that one of the reasons for her behavior was the hope that Moscow's negotiations with Tehran would lead to some results, which did not happen. Moreover, Washington assumed that Moscow would agree to the use of sanctions after the failure of its talks with Tehran. Washington may still trade with Russia on the upcoming G8 summit, however. It is symbolic that yesterday's discussion of Iran will transform into a discussion of preparations for the G8 summit today. And the U.S. is being represented at the talks by Burns, who has been instructed to amend U.S. policy toward Russia. Among the questions to be discussed today are Iran, Iraq, democratic freedoms and nonproliferation, as well as preparations for the meeting in St. Petersburg.
Washington is making it ever more unambiguously clear that the summit's success may depend on Russia's further position on Iran. Moscow is concerned that the summit go without hitch and that they talk about energy security at it, and not about other things. Washington is making it clear that Moscow can avoid questions about democracy, freedom of speech and other subjects it finds unpleasant only by giving up its support of the Iranian regime.
Sergey Strokan; Dmitry Sidorov, Washington
All the Article in Russian as of Apr. 19, 2006
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