Ilham Aliev kisses the Azerbaijani flag during an inauguration ceremony at the Respublika Palace in Baku, Azerbaijan, Friday, Oct. 31, 2003.
Photo: AP
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Ilham's Kingdom
Parliamentary elections in Azerbaijan took place at the end of last week. It seemed to many that they would inevitably end with an Orange Revolution. However, at the very last moment the acting president Ilham Aliyev managed to intercept the initiative.
Several weeks before the parliamentary elections Azerbaijan lived in the anticipation of the revolution. Everybody– both the opposition and the country's leadership - spoke about that. “Today's (October 23 – Vlast) unauthorized rally of the opposition that the police will surely disperse is one of the last rehearsals of the attempt to stage a coup on the night of November 6. This is the revolution that our opposition calls Orange for smooth perception,” – said the representative of the Presidential Administration Fuad Akhundov.
The leader of the Azadlyg (Freedom) opposition bloc Ali Kerimli has called upon the members of the government to side with the opposition before it is too late. “If other members of the government do not want to share the fate of Farhad Aliyev, Ali Insanov, Akif Muradverdiyev (former Vice Premier, former Health Minister and former chief of presidential affairs - Vlast) and others, let them resign. Had those ministers who are now in prison turned in their resignation in due time, had they sided with the opposition they could be defended and could be presented to the international community as political prisoners. However, they have not done that and have turned into common criminals who are accused of corruption. The present officials should realize the following truth – there exist no guarantees that they will avoid jail. And while it is not too late let them resign and support the democratic forces,” – Mr. Kerimli was trying to convince the officials.
Officials siding with the opposition – this has always been the main symptom of the beginning of Color Revolutions. However, most likely this will not happen in Azerbaijan – the acting president of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev has managed to intercept the initiative.
Ilham Aliyev became Azerbaijan's president in October 2003 – two months before his father Heydar Aliyev died. Operation Successor was prepared by Aliyev Senior and – even to a greater extent – by his circle. The ruling elite was sure that if it brought to power the weak and easily manipulated son of the president it would manage to retain its influence and privileges. Once elected the president, Aliyev Junior was to guarantee to his father's circle that all the power and financial flows in the country would remain in their hands.
During his first year in the office of the president Ilham Aliyev completely depended upon the old ruling elite. All the important minister portfolios remained in the hands of the people who had come to power back in the times of Heydar Aliyev. There was only one Ilham's man who had been introduced into the cabinet of ministers – the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Elmar Mamedyanov. Such balance of forces made independent decisions on the part of the young president impossible.
The change of the leadership of the National Security Ministry (NSM) became Ilham Aliyev's first success on the way to independence. In September 2004, instead of the Old Guards' representative Namik Abbasov it was Eldar Mahmudov that came to head the NSM. Eldar Mahmudov was loyal to the young Aliyev. The latter now had his power body.
The NSM successfully coped with the first assignment of the president. In March 2005, the NSM launched the investigation of the “werewolves in shoulder straps” case. Several staff of the Interior Ministry (lieutenant-colonel of the Central Administrative Board of Criminal Investigations Department Haji Mamedov, the Criminal Investigations Department head Zakir Nasibov and others) were accused of abuse of power, corruption and assassinations. It was obvious that the exposed staff of the law-enforcement bodies had acted with the consent of the Minister of Interior, Ramil Usubov. The latter is one of the most influential players in the Azerbaijani politics. This was why the case of “werewolves in shoulder straps” was perceived as an attack against the Old Guards on the part of the young president. However, Ilham Aliyev did not pluck up the courage to carry through. He said that despite everything he trusted Ramil Usubov.
Nevertheless “the old crowd” became convinced that the young president intended to squeeze them away from the sinecure and take the power into his own hands. They started looking for a replacement for him. Many in Baku say that the former speaker of the parliament, Rasul Guliyev, seemed to be the most suitable candidature. Just like others from “the old crowd” he originally worked together with Heydar Aliyev. When in 1993 Aliyev Senior came to power, Rasul Guliyev headed the parliament. However, in 1996 he quarreled with the president, took an opposition stand and moved to the USA where he got the political refugee status. In exile Rasul Guliyev headed the Azerbaijan Democratic Party. Nevertheless the man was quite predictable and quite familiar for “the old crowd”.
Shortly before the elections many members of the Cabinet ceased concealing their sympathies towards the opposition. The Economic Development Minister, Farhad Aliyev, started showing in public wearing an orange tie. There were rumors that once Rasul Guliyev returned home some ministers might openly side with him.
To his team-mates' surprise the president of Azerbaijan was taking no measures despite the fact that the parliamentary elections were approaching. After the spring-summer arrests of the Interior Ministry staff Ilham Aliyev did not touch any representatives of the former political elite. However, the lull was deceptive.
On October 10, Rasul Guliyev announced that he intended to return home on October 17. Several hours later the head of the Interior Ministry, Ramil Usubov, said that on his arrival in Baku the ex-speaker would be arrested. Parallel to that in Moscow they detained the director of the international center of the Moscow State University's legal department, Tamerlan Gasanov. According to the materials of the Azerbaijani Office of Public Prosecutor, the Interior Ministry Department of Moscow's Central District charged Mr.Gasanov with embezzlement and misappropriation of state means. However, in the course of interrogations the investigators were more interested not in Mr.Gasanov per se but in Rasul Guliyev's connection with the case of the embezzlement of means from Azerbaijan's budget. “The Azerbaijani authorities are trying to keep our leader out of the country, which is why they intimidate him in every possible way. Unfortunately the Russian authorities act together with Aliyev. The arrest of the absolutely innocent Tamerlan Gasanov in Moscow is a signal to Rasul Guliyev that he should not return,” – said first deputy head of the Democratic Party Sardar Jalalogly.
Nevertheless on October 17, Rasul Guliyev flew from London to Baku. Azerbaijan was thoroughly preparing for the meeting of the opposition leader. Hundreds of his advocates arrived in the airport named after Heydar Aliyev to meet Mr.Guliyev. They were to prevent the arrest of their leader. However, the plane landed in Simferopol where the opposition leader found out that on suspicion of preparing a coup former Minister of Finance Fikret Yusifov had been detained the day before. In the course of the interrogation Yusifov admitted that there were several other members of the government involved in the plot.
After that the NSM and the Prosecutor's Office launched a total offensive against the members of the government who were not loyal to Ilham Aliyev and belonged to the old political elite. On October 19, the staff of the NSM arrested the Economic Development Minister - one of the most influential oligarchs of the country, Farhad Aliyev. For a long time he had been considered the treasurer of the ruling elite. On the same day his brother Rafik Aliyev was arrested as well. He headed the largest in the South Caucasus Azpetrol private oil company. On October 20, another political heavy-weight – Ali Insanov – was dismissed from the office of Health Minister. Then the Minister of Labor and Social Protection, Ali Nagiyev, the Minister of Education, Misir Mardanov, and the chief of presidential affairs, Akif Muradverdiyev, were dismissed. Soon after their dismissal Akif Muradverdiyev and Ali Insanov were arrested. Searches were held in their houses and offices. They were charged with a conspiracy with the purpose of staging a state coup and with financing the opposition.
Those decisive actions helped president Aliyev to attain several goals at once. Firstly, the resignation and the subsequent arrest of the ministers increased the popularity of Aliyev Junior. The thing was that those politicians had the reputation of the chief corrupt officials of Azerbaijan. There were rumors that for quite a while Ilham Aliyev had tried to get rid of their influence and the relations between them were quite tense. The latest actions of the young president have proved that he is a quite strong politician and is capable of opposing the officials who are not popular with the people but are quite mighty.
Secondly, Ilham Aliyev has managed to renovate the ruling Eni Azerbaijan party that consists mainly of the Old Guards. Last week the pro-presidential mass media reported that Ali Insanov and Misir Mardanov had been banished from Eni Azerbaijan with shame. And many other officials who had fallen into disgrace had resigned from the ruling party of Azerbaijan on their own accord. Most likely pretty soon their places will be taken by the people of young Aliyev.
Thirdly, Aliyev Junior has managed to disrupt the trust towards the opposition by proving the connection between one of its leaders, Rasul Guliyev, and the ministers who had been caught stealing. The joint statement of the Interior Ministry and the NSM gives a detailed report on who of the arrested ministers, when and how much had allocated for the financing of the illegal seizure of power with Rasul Guliyev's participation. Now even if Mr.Guliyev decides to return to Azerbaijan and is not arrested, it is unlikely that he will get a significant support of the voters.
Having taken measures against those who had brought him to power, quite providently Ilham Aliyev enlisted support from outside. On the eve of the arrests, the president of Azerbaijan received a letter from George Bush who declared his support of Aliyev. After that Aliyev held a meeting with Deputy Secretary of State of the USA Daniel Freed.
Already after the arrests of the ministers the Secretary General of the Council of Europe, Terry Davis, called the “personnel reshuffling in the Azerbaijani government a normal and democratic move”.
It is obvious that the young president of Azerbaijan enjoys complete support on the part of Russia. The head of the Russian presidential directorate for foreign policy, Sergey Prikhodko, has told Vlast: “Traditionally we support the acting authorities on the CIS territories and are not involved in subversive activities. Ilham Aliyev, the president of the friendly Azerbaijan, is our partner. His father and he have done much for the development of the Russian-Azerbaijani cooperation. They contributed to the solution of the dead-end situation in our relations in the first years after the disintegration of the USSR. We are satisfied with the volumes of the trade cooperation. We highly value the fact that Azerbaijan is one of the few CIS countries where the number of Russian schools is not merely holding stable but is actually increasing. Besides, the president of the RF Vladimir Putin and Ilham Aliyev share similar opinion on the majority of international issues. For example, thanks to joint effort we managed to settle the Caspian issue that was very important for us. Ilham Aliyev's policy is clear and predictable.”
Ilham Aliyev's latest actions have drastically changed the balance of forces in Azerbaijan. The Orange Revolution that seemed almost inevitable looks less and less realistic. The renewed party of the president stands a good change of success in the parliamentary elections. This means that soon Ilham Aliyev's young pro-Western team-mates will replace the old ministers of his father at the sinecure.
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How the Power in Azerbaijan Changed
It was the former first secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Azerbaijan (CPA), Ayaz Mutalibov, that was elected the president in the first general elections after Azerbaijan proclaimed its independence. The elections took place on September 8, 1991. There was only one candidate in the ballots. The second candidate – the leader of the Social Democratic Party Zardusht Ali-zade – refused to participate in the elections a week before that. 85,5% of the electors participated in the voting. Of them 98,5% gave their votes for Mr. Mutalibov. Among those who boycotted the elections were the citizens of the Nakhichevan autonomous republic headed by Heydar Aliyev. On March 6, 1992, on the requirement of the opposition Ayaz Mutalibov resigned. The reason for the resignation was the seizure of the Azerbaijani city of Khojaly in Nagorny Karabakh by the Armenian self-defense forces on February 25-26, 1992. Three hundred to one thousand civilians died as a result of the incident.
In the new presidential elections on June 7, 1992 it was the leader of the People's Front of Azerbaijan, Abulfaz Elchibey, that won. The voter turnout was 76%; 59,4% of them voted for him. The candidate from the Union of Democratic Intelligentsia, Nizami Suleimanov, collected 27,5% of votes. On June 4, 1993, colonel Suret Huseynov led a rebellion against the head of the republic in the Ganja city. The negotiations - with the speaker of the parliament, Heydar Aliyev, as the mediator - brought about no results and on the night of June 17 Abulfaz Elchibey fled from Baku to Nakhichevan. On June 25, 1993, the National Assembly of Azerbaijan voted for the transfer of the presidential authorities to Heydar Aliyev who had headed the Azerbaijani Soviet Socialist Republic from 1969 to 1982 as the first secretary of the CPA's Central Committee. On June 30, Heydar Aliyev nominated Suret Huseynov for the office of the prime minister and the parliament approved of his candidature on the same day. On August 28, 1993, Abulfaz Elchibey received a 97,5% vote of no confidence in a popular referendum (with a 92% turnout).
On October 3, 1993, Heydar Aliyev was elected the president. 97% of the republican population participated in the elections, of them 98% voted for Mr. Aliyev. Apart from him there were Zakir Tagiev (the leader of the Gummet party) and Kerrar Abilov (the head of the United Azerbaijan Party) contending for the highest office.
On October 11, 1998, Heydar Aliyev was elected for the second term. He was supported by 76,1% of the voters. The leader of the Azerbaijan National Independence Party, Etibar Mamedov, who got the second place collected 11,6% of votes. Seventy five percent of those who have the right to vote participated in the elections.
On October 15, 2003, Heydar Aliyev's son – the prime minister of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev – was elected the new president of the republic. He received 76,9% of the votes (71,2% turnout). His rival, the leader of the Musavat party Isa Gambar collected 14% of votes. Shortly before the elections the leader of the Milli Vahdat (National Unity) party Yunus Oguz, the candidate from the Alliance in the Name of Azerbaijan Abutalyb Samedov and Heydar Aliyev himself withdrew their candidatures from the list of nominees. On December 12, 2003, Aliev Senior died at a clinic in Cleveland (USA).
Nargiz Asadova
All the Article in Russian as of Oct. 31, 2005
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