| Other Photos |
 |
|
 |
Price of the Question
The Iranian situation is bad in any way. Theory: the Americans start the third round and attack Iran. They also have not a quiet Iraq and unclouded Afghanistan. Iran will find a way to attack back. Sure we can doubt how well grounded the threats from Teheran are, but the threats of Saddam were not groundless. Teheran has the means to resist. It’s an oil region and once they stop oil supply the market will collapse. The price of war and peace in this region is always on the international level- literary and figuratively.
Another option is that Americans just go away from the region. The way they went away from Vietnam. And we will have an increased influence of Iran because the Americans showed what was what in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Theoretically, the Iranian campaign was to be in the American strategists’ pack with the Afghanistan and Iraq. But was it like that? I have the feeling that the Americans are not sure what they want. More likely that they don’t want another military campaign right now because they have a lot to do in Iraq. On the other hand, they were not to stop Iran spreading its influence and make Iran refuse the military programs. Now they play on the diplomatic level. Europe plays this game too. Ultimatum to Iran with regards to quitting of the military programs, and sanctions against Teheran in case they refuse can become the point of contact. But I am not sure that the European countries and also Russia will be ready to observe the sanctions. Because everyone is playing their own game. And it seems like Russia will carry on playing its game until it is time to take a position. So, if Iran wins, the profits are the same if it’s America that wins. It’s early to make a decision.
So, Russia and Europe behave just like they did at the time of the first America’s threats to Iraq. Temporizing-neutrally. And they again don’t know if Americans will invite them to the pull. But Americans, unlike the previous time, hadn’t made the decision, because none of the decisions is good.
The world still cannot choose from a bang on the head [tough option a la Bush] and the threatening stick in a hand [a softer European option]. I doubt that the leading countries can enter engagement on the second option, let alone the first one. So, Teheran has chosen the right moment to show its power and remind of its means for resistance and the price of the question.
Natalya Gevorkyan
All the Article in Russian as of Feb. 08, 2005
|
|
|
