Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) meets his Ukrainian counterpart, Victor Yushchenko (left). The meeting took place in the Kremlin, January 24, 2005.
Photo: Dmitry Azarov
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Axis of Evil Shaping Against Moscow
Rose-orange Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova are establishing an anti-Russian tie-up to force Moscow from Caucasus and Pridnestrovie, analysts say quoted by the RBC news agency.
Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili arrived in Moldova last night. In Kishinev, Saakashvili held talks with Moldova’s President Vladimir Voronin. The parties canvassed establishing cooperation under the GUUAM bloc, which unites Georgia, Ukraine, Moldova, Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan (membership of the last two countries is formal), to oppose “Russia’s imperialism” in the region. Only three parties appear aggressively involved in consultations. The day before yesterday, Voronin went to Kiev to negotiate with Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko. By mere chance, the visit of Moldova’s leader coincided with the tour of the new Georgian PM Zurab Nogaideli. Top officials have never bothered to conceal the target of GUUAM revival. The main highlights are forcing Russia from the Caucasus and Pridnestrovie; establishment of transport corridors, going the round of Russia. Therefore, the parties actually endeavor to create a sanitary corridor to isolate Russia from Europe and Transcaucasia. In view of the traditionally weak foreign policy of Russia, Moscow is unable to rebuff, analysts told RBC. The only way out is stop dancing to someone else’s pipe and apply “nonstandard methods.”
It was exactly creation of a trilateral anti-Russian union (Georgia-Moldova-Ukraine) based on GUUAM bloc that was in the limelight of Kishinev negotiations. Before the Georgia-Moldova’s summit, that matter had been thoroughly discussed in Kiev, in the course of the meeting between Yushchenko and Voronin.
“GUUAM block had been created long ago and shaped by 1999, but it was idle de-factor. Now, after a series of ‘color’ revolutions the hopes have sprung for its revival,” said Sergey Borovikov, expert at St. Petersburg Constructing Future analytical group.
“GUUAM reanimation is underway. A triple axis that yet comprises Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova is being created. The aim of this union is to force Russia from Caucasus and the southeastern Europe. Armenia and Pridnestrovie have turned out completely isolated from the RF. Ukraine and Moldova enforced severe economic blockage of Tiraspol, having cut the developed industry of Pridnestrovie of the market outlet,” said Alexander Skakov, expert at the Russian Strategic Research Institute. In Tbilisi and Kishinev, they are looking to the West for help. A few days ago, Salome Zurabishvili called on the United States and the EU to render real support to the republic, when it is striving to get rid of the rudimental influence of Russian military bases and to oppose Moscow’s encouragement of two separatists’ republics.
Meanwhile, the battle might turn out not so losing for Russia. “The key thing is not to repeat mistakes made in Ukraine and Abkhazia, i.e. not to get involved in the ‘color’ revolutions,” Borovikov said. Russia must deliver unusual response. For instance, it may denounce Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact and offer the neighbors to revise borders, in a move to trigger concerns in Lithuania, Poland, Ukraine and Moldova. Or Russian military bases could be assigned to the Emergency Ministry, which may be fighting “disastrous humanitarian situation” and terrorism in Georgia and Pridnestrovie, Borovikov offered. Such point of view is shared by Alexander Sobyanin, head of the strategic planning service at the Association of Frontier Cooperation. “Russia is weak. We must act in full conformity with the Western rhetoric, but under our own, not other’s rules,” Sobyanin specified.
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