Andrey Klepach, head of the macroeconomics department of the Russian Economic Development Ministry
Photo: Ilya Pitalev
| Other Photos |
 |
|
 |
Economic Stagnation Is Now Official
Deputy Economics Minister Andrey Klepach presented a new version of the macroeconomic forecast for 2008-2011 yesterday. It is the basis for the three-year budget. The ministry has increased the forecast growth of inflation, oil prices and the GDP and acknowledged stagnation in construction and an end to the rapid industrial growth in Russia. The numbers in the forecast have been heavily revised, especially predicted oil prices, since the last version, which was presented in May.
The average price for a barrel of Urals oil for 2008 is now forecast at $122 per barrel (up from $92 in May), for 2009 $95 ($78), in 2010 $90 and in 2011 $88. Klepach, unlike most analysts, suggests that the price of oil may remain high even as the world economy slows down.
The Economics Ministry also forecasts lower oil production and export, in spite of Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin’s assurances that oil production will start to grow again before the end of the year. Higher oil prices, in turn, will raise the GDP. Its growth rate has been increased in 2008 from 7.6 percent to 7.8 percent, in 2009 from 6.6 percent to 6.7 percent and in 2010 from 6.5 percent to 6.6 percent, as industrial growth and investment decline.
Forecast investment in basic capital has been cut from 17.8 percent in 2008 to 16.5 percent and from 15 percent to 14.5 percent in 2009. Forecast state investment is cut from 2.3 percent of the GDP in 2008 to 1.6 percent, from 2.9 percent to 2.1 percent in 2009 and from 3.2 percent to 2.4 percent in 2010. The Economics Ministry advocates increased state investment.
The Economics Ministry has increased it forecast of direct foreign investment, however. That figure has been increased from $56 billion to $59 billion in 2009, and from $60 billion to $64 billion in 2010.
www.kommersant.com
All the Article in Russian as of July 29, 2008
|
|
|
