The meeting between Russian President Dmitry Medvedev (L) and Abkhazia breakaway republic leader Sergey Bagapsh (R) proves that Moscow has taken Georgia's initiatives seriously.
Photo: ITAR-TASS
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Benefit from a Deadlock
// Moscow considers Georgia’s offer to divide Abkhazia into spheres of influence
Kommersant found out that Tbilisi offered Moscow a cluster of measures to settle the Georgia-Abkhazia conflict, which virtually suggests carving Abkhazia into zones of influence – a large Russian area and a smaller Georgian one – with Georgia formally establishing its sovereignty in the entire republic. Abkhaz leader Sergey Bagapsh, who immediately arrived in Moscow, was told about this plan during his talks in the Kremlin and the White House. The long-lasting discussions with Russia’s top politicians show that Moscow has taken the Georgian plan seriously.
Divide and rule
Officials with the Georgian government and the Russian Foreign Ministry told Kommersant about Georgia’s proposals in detail. Monday Tbilisi’s new ideas were presented in Moscow during negotiations between Georgian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigol Vashadze and his Russian counterpart Grigory Karassin, who is in charge of the relations with the CIS countries. The plan suggests carving Abkhazia into Russian and Georgian spheres of influence.
Now the de-facto border between Abkhazia and Georgia is the Inguri river, safeguarded by Russian peace-keepers. The plan of Tbilisi envisages mass repatriation of Georgian refugees to the Gal and Ochamchira districts, which lie to the north of the frontier river, and replacement of the Russian peace-keepers in this region with a mixed contingent consisting of Georgian and Abkhaz police officers.
The line of demarcation is due to be drawn along the Kodori river, which is situated to the north of the Inguri. The zone to the north of the Kodori will be under control of the Abkhaz authorities – Tbilisi won’t insist on retrieving refugees to this region because Sukhumi minds it. Besides, Georgia may consent to the presence of Russian troops in this region.
According to the information of Kommersant, during the talks in the Russian Foreign Office Grigol Vashadze emphasized that Tbilisi is ready to put up with the fact that Russian businessmen buy up assets in Abkhazia. At the same time Tbilisi asks Moscow to at least formally cancel the orders about establishing special relations between the Russian Federation and Abkhazia, which were issued by Vladimir Putin on April 15. In practice all the measures stipulated in these orders can be easily realized.
The political part of the plan suggests a legal securing Abkhazia’s status of a broad autonomy as part of united Georgia. In reality status quo will be maintained in the area to the north of the Kodori.
So, all the parties will reach their goals saving face. Georgian president Mikhail Saakashvili will be able to declare that Abkhazia returned to the country’s bosom. The Abkhazian party will secure a virtual independence from Tbilisi, losing control of an insignificant part of its territory. To Moscow, Georgia’s abandoning its NATO aspirations and a possibility to freely do business in Abkhazia will be the major achievement.
A high-ranking official with the Georgian government told Kommersant that the proposals handed over by Grigol Vashadze should not be regarded as a detailed and concrete plan. It’s merely an outline and Georgia’s manifestation that it can go to great lengths for the sake of a formal restoration of its territorial integrity. According to the information of Kommersant, it was the idea Mikhail Saakashvili tried to bring home during his talks with the President of Russia Dmitry Medvedev on June 6 at the informal CIS summit in St.-Petersburg. Georgia reputed the Russian President’s reaction positive, and was quick to hand over quite a wide range of offers and a list of possible concessions via Grigol Vashadze.
Grigol Vashadze was deliberately appointed the emissary. This diplomat is in charge of the Russian department in the MFA of Georgia. More to the point, he enjoys personal confidence of Mikhail Saakashvili. He accompanied President Saakashvili during his talks with Dmitry Medvedev behind closed doors in St.-Petersburg regardless of the fact that his chief – Eka Tkeshelashvili – was in the Georgian delegation as well.
In essence the current initiative of the Georgian government is a development of the peaceful conflict settlement plan, which Abkhazia’s President Sergey Bagapsh and Georgia’s Ambassador to the United Nations Irakli Alasania discussed in Sukhumi in May.
That plan suggested concluding a treaty prohibiting to use force in the zone of the conflict in exchange for Tbilisi’s consent to withdraw its military from the Upper Kodori and Sukhumi’s guarantees not to create obstacles to Georgian refugees returning to the Gal and Ochamchira districts. Dmitry Medvedev was to become the guarantor of this agreement. Moscow was skeptical about the plan, which was discussed in the presence of the USA and the EU representatives. Though the Kremlin didn’t turn it down immediately. It seems that Grigol Vashadze was to dispel Moscow’s doubts and demonstrate the prospects to the Russian government.
The art of conviction
Moscow appears to have taken the new Georgian initiatives seriously. On Wednesday Abkhaz President Sergey Bagapsh arrived in Moscow, where he met with Grigory Karassin. Chief of the Abkhaz MFA Sergey Shamba, who took part in those negotiations, told Kommersant that Mr Karassin informed the guests from Abkhazia about the new initiatives that Grigol Vashadze had brought to Moscow.
Yesterday Sergey Bagapsh was received by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in the Kremlin. Their meeting, which was held ahead of Mr Medvedev’s leaving for the Russia-EU summit in Khanty-Mansiysk, hadn’t been announced. On its completion, the Kremlin press-service issued a brief press-release reading that the presidents discussed “matters regarding settling the Georgia-Abkhaz conflict.” After received in the Kremlin, Mr Bagapsh went to the White House, where a session of the State Border Commission under the chairmanship of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin had just finished. However, yesterday, in his talk with Kommersant, the Premier’s press-secretary Dmitry Peskov denied it that Vladimir Putin met with the Abkhaz leader.
The negotiations in the Kremlin and the White House featured the new initiatives of Tbilisi. So far, the Abkhaz party is dissatisfied with them. “These are no new offers, they are old,” Sergey Shamba told Kommersant, “We have articulated out position: We won’t agree to the status of autonomy within Georgia.”
By the way, Tbilisi hasn’t been delighted at the meeting of Dmitry Medvedev and Sergey Bagapsh, who was even called “the President of Abkhazia” by the Kremlin press-service. A high-ranking official with the Georgian government told Kommersant that Tbilisi accepted the meeting with “irritation that could hardly be held back.” “For all that, we expect that this meeting was organized in the framework of the negotiating process and is linked with the attempt to resolve the dispute,” the official said. The reaction of the Georgian MFA has been harsh. However, the majority of Georgia’s influential politicians showed much interest in the meeting. For instance, Georgian Reintegration Minister Timur Yakobashvili stated, “If Dmitry Medvedev wants to better grasp the situation ahead of the Russia-EU summit, Tbilisi hails a meeting of like that.”
The Georgian government seems to realize that discussing the peaceful conflict resolution plan is not that easy. It means the process of the conflict settlement, which has been stalled for years, has been advanced.
Alexander Gabuev
All the Article in Russian as of June 27, 2008
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