A Welcome Guest
// The price of the question
It would be easy to accuse Russia of cynicism: Venezuela’s money is not enough for it, it’ll take Colombia’s as well, and let them fight. Then there’ll be demand for ammunition. Not only that, it’ll show the Americans something for poking their noses in its backyard (Ukraine, Georgia). Alas, that may be how it really is, but there are other possibilities.
Supplying weapons to two opposing sides is a delicate business but not necessarily destructive. There are many cases known when the great powers (all major arms exporters) used it to restrain hot heads. Obvious examples are the massive cooperation between the United States and Egypt after Camp David, or the USSR’s aid to both North and South Yemen in the 1980s. Supplying arms is more than just commerce. It is a means of leverage over the buyer. More importantly, it is the purchase of insurance against the neighbors: you have something to attack us with, and we have something to defend ourselves with. The American tactic just mentioned made a large Arab-Israeli war impossible, and Soviet cooperation with the North and South in Yemen at least indirectly (and with a delay) laid the way to a peaceful united country.
Let’s not forget that cooperation with Colombia has other promising aspects: oil and railroads. If Russia adds practical links to a moderate pro-American regime to its dubious cooperation with Venezuela, it can help settle some of the tension between the two countries, and Russia’s authority will grow significantly in Latin America.
One more thing has to be said about that topic. There is a lot less leftism in the “left wave” sweeping Latin America than Gennady Zyuganov and his fellow travelers think. They are less afraid of leftism in South American since the fall of the Soviet Union, and its adherents are no longer seen as agents of Moscow. And the temptation to hide behind Uncle Sam is less now too. Of course, Latin American leaders will not hesitate to “play the Russian card” in the redefinition of their relations with the U.S. – let the State Department get a little nervous. Of course, Russia has a new opportunity to poke the U.S. in its soft underbelly and get the best of Washington in its backyard. But that will not be. The days of Che Guevara are over. And the days of the Stroessners, Batistas and Pinochets. Chavez is the exception that proves the rule. The end of the bipolar faceoff opened Latin America to the possibility of political reform without revolution or donning the toga of the fighter against imperialismo norteamericano or comunismo sovietico. It has been replaced by the diplomat’s suit and native costumes (which are also acceptable in international diplomatic etiquette). Instead of war, there is trade and movement between the great powers.
One of those men in suits has come to Moscow. He is a journalist, a fighter against the drug barons, a professor at Harvard and the vice president of Colombia. If he has anything to talk about with Russia, it will not only be good for Latin America, it will be good for Russia as well.
Boris Makarenko, first deputy general director, the Center for Political Technology
All the Article in Russian as of June 04, 2008
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