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The Caucasus Geometry
I don’t like to speculate on political matters. Especially when it comes to the Caucasus. But now you can do nothing but speculate on the Georgia-Abkhazia conflict. There are no clear-cut solutions, and the situation seems to be in a deadlock. Nonetheless, even this deadlocked situation has a chance to get rectified, and resolution can be found. To believe in it, you shouldn’t fear to use your imagination and take a look into the future.
I opine that Abkhazia will never return to Georgia. Nor will it become Russia’s part or get absolute independence. What’s its fate then? There has been no answer to this question so far. Within the triangle Tbilisi-Moscow-Sukhumi at least. But the answer can be found after this geometrical figure is transformed into a square, which may happen if the “damned West” – the USA or Europe – will become the fourth side of the settlement.
I’d rather omit a number of details – the unmanned flying jets shot down, or Russia’s railroad construction troops deployed in Abkhazia. Let’s get to the core of the problem.
Europe and the United States (perhaps enchanted by Kosovo) seem eager to speak with Abkhazians as a legitimate and independent party in the conflict. It has been pointed to Georgia that there is a way out of the deadlock. But to achieve it, all the parties will have to abandon some of their stereotypes. Their main stereotypes, I’d say (I’m just dreaming now, you know).
So, Georgia will have to give up its Abkhazia ambition, and Abkhazia – its claim to be endowed with official independence. In exchange Georgia will have less problems getting admission to NATO, and perhaps, getting the Gal region as well. Abkhazia can receive a status that will secure a de-facto independent existing (evasive wording, isn’t it?). And the European Union can be a guarantor in this case. And you can never tell whether Abkhazians will want to have Russia’s passports with the double eagle rather than the seemingly unpretentious but in fact more alluring European documents.
This scenario bodes ill for Russia. First, another international conflict will turn out to be settled without it. Second, Moscow will lose an instrument of exerting pressure on Georgia. Finally, Moscow can lose some of its economic preferences in Abkhazia, and some of us may lose – the sanatoriums and Black Sea beaches.
Obviously, this changes can take place, but in the long run. For all that, you mustn’t neglect this possibility. Why should then Vladimir Putin have spoken so favorably of Mikhail Saakashvili’s new proposals? This sort of reaction can mean that Moscow is really afraid of the Caucasus square to appear, which will be less beneficial for it than the present no-love triangle. More to the point, it has nothing to do with the idea of “Georgia’s NATO membership in exchange for Abkhazia.”
As things stand now, the Kremlin has to dream. But regarding the Georgia-Abkhazia conflict, you must have the stomach for it.
Alexey Malashenko, Moscow Center Carnegie Expert
All the Article in Russian as of June 02, 2008
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