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In Tbilisi, they think that Russia had better not try Georgia's dwindling patience.
Photo: Dmitry Saltykovsky
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May 30, 2008
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Presidents Meet over Peacekeepers
Moscow and Tbilisi have agreed to hold the first bilateral meeting of Presidents Dmitry Medvedev and Mikheil Saakashvili. The talks will take place during the June CIS summit in St. Petersburg and the Georgian side will try to convince the new Russian leader to move away from the political course chosen by his predecessor in regard to unrecognized republics. If that is unsuccessful, a source in the Georgian Foreign Ministry told Kommersant, Georgia will use its last argument and demand the withdrawal of the peacekeepers from Abkhazia.
The Georgian president’s staff confirmed for Kommersant that the last preparations have been made for the meeting between Mikheil Saakashvili and Dmitry Medvedev. “The will meet face to face on June 6 during the CIS summit in St. Petersburg. The main topic of conversation between the two presidents will be the situation in Abkhazia,” a high-placed member of the presidential administration said. He added that deputy secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation for CIS conflict zones Yury Zubakov had visited the Georgian capital on a special mission. Zubakov had meetings at the Georgian Foreign Ministry and yesterday met the head of state.

They are saying seriously in Tbilisi that the upcoming meeting of the presidents is almost the last chance to defuse the tension in relations between the two countries. In a recent interview with Kommersant, the Georgian president stated openly that “everything has to begin with a blank slate with Medvedev.” Kommersant sources in the Georgian Foreign Ministry suggest that the talks will be momentous only if Medvedev changes the policy of political, military and economic support for the unrecognized republics on the territory of Georgia set by his predecessor Vladimir Putin in his April instruction. “Any meeting has expectations attached to it, but I don’t think Medvedev is ready to take the decisive step,” commented Konstantin Gabashvili, chairman of the Georgian parliament’s foreign affairs committee. “Putin left him a difficult inheritance in the form of the Abkhazian problem, but it will at least be seen in St. Petersburg whether Medvedev is ready to undertake something.”

At the same time, they think in Moscow that Georgia should show good will and finally sign an agreement with Abkhazia on the non-application of force and guarantees of safety. At the Russian Foreign Ministry, they say a Georgian-Abkhazian should be a package that, besides the agreement already mentioned, included a document on the demilitarization of Georgia’s Kodori Gorge. Sukhumi full concurs. “Two things can be the bases for the renewal of our negotiations with Georgia: the withdrawal of Georgian armed forces from Kodori Gorge under international monitoring and the signing of an agreement on the non-application of force under an international guarantee. Who the international guarantor will be – Russia or the United States – is not crucial. The main thing is that it be those countries that influence international politics and the Georgian leadership,” stated Kristian Bzhania, press secretary to Abkhazian President Sergey Bagapsh.

While Tbilisi is hoping for a positive outcome from the Saakashvili-Medvedev talks, it is preparing for the worst. Kommersant was told in the state administration that, if the new Russian president does not agree to change Moscow’s policy toward the unrecognized republics, especially Abkhazia, in June Georgian authorities will demand the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from the Georgian-Abkhazian conflict zone. Under the 1994 agreement on a ceasefire and disengagement of forces, peace in Abkhazia is guarded by the peacekeeping forces of the CIS, as represented by the Russia contingent. In 2003, presidents Putin and Shevardnadze, then in office in Russia and Georgia, agreed that the peacekeepers would remain until one side in the conflict called for the end of their operation. Since then, Tbilisi has declared the need to replace the Russian peacekeepers several times, but only within the walls of its own parliament. The head of state, while criticizing the activities of the Russian military, has refrained from making any statements of that sort.

Saakashvili confirmed that Georgia would pose the question directly. He invited specially journalists to one of the last meetings of the Security Council and made a number of important statements in their presence. He made it clear that, if no consensus was reached in the near future on the internationalization of the peacekeeping operation, Tbilisi would demand their withdrawal, since it is being implemented only by the Russian contingent.

Then Saakashvili stages a little show before the press, dramatically turning to State Minister for Reintegration Timur Yakobashvili and asking him if he had noticed the slightest change in the Russian position during recent negotiations in Moscow. Yakobashvili answered negatively. Saakashvili then posed the same question to Security Council Secretary Alexander Lomai and Deputy Foreign Minister Grigol Vashadze.

He was told in response that the international community, including the UN, NATO and European Union, has condemned Russia’s policy and the incident with the downed drones. Saakashvili thus made it clear that grounds for compromise were nearing an end. And the international community will be sympathetic to Georgia’s decision to expel the Russian peacekeepers.

They also admit in Tbilisi that it will not be easy to force Russia into changing the format of the peacekeeping operation. “After the meeting with Shevardnadze in 2003, Putin said, ‘We will leave Georgia in a day, if we become unwanted,’” Gabashvili reminded Kommersant. “But it won’t happen that easily, of course. The best choice would be to accept our proposal to change the format from the military to police and create forces to support peace from Georgian and Abkhazian police. That would be closest of all to a solution.”

To prepare the international community for decisive steps in relation to Russia, Georgian diplomats have unleashed a massive offensive against Moscow in the international organizations. Yesterday, Tbilisi delivered a verbal note to the Russian delegation at the OSCE demanding that Russia acknowledge that the downing of the Georgian unpiloted aircraft over Abkhazia was an “act of aggression.” Making reference to the UN observation mission in Georgia’s report blaming the destruction of the aircraft on Russia, the Georgian Foreign Ministry demanded compensation from Tbilisi. “The Georgian side is demanding an explanation from Russia of the reason and grounds for the Russian side to commit that act, payment of compensation to the Georgian Interior Ministry for the material damage in connection with the destruction of the drone and a stop to provocative acts in the Georgian conflict zone,” it declared. At the same time, Georgian Deputy Foreign Minister Vashadze stated that his country would not give up its attempts to have the aviation incident condemned at a session of the UN Security Council. “The information that the session will not take place is a pure lie,” Vashadze said. “Russia cannot veto this issue.”
Vladimir Solovyev; Georgy Dvali, Tbilisi

All the Article in Russian as of May 30, 2008

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