Economic Growth No Miracle
If maximal rates of economic growth attained in the last decade (10 percent annually) are maintained in Russia, it will take 17 years for it to catch up to the average level of GDP per capita of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) member states. China would require 23 years, Venezuela 13 years and Indonesia 181 years. Those calculations were published yesterday by the Commission on Growth and Development, an independent expert organization supported by the World Bank and various governments and NGOs.
The authors of the report warn that their calculations are speculative, since the average rate of growth in the rapidly developing countries is far from maximal. For Russia, it is 5.r percent. For China, it is 8.3 percent, and for Venezuela 1.1 percent. Since the OECD countries of the will not be standing still either (their GDP has been growing by 2.04 percent annual for the last ten years), it may not be possible to catch up to some of the countries. To catch up to the OECD countries by 2050, Russia will have to have an average GDP growth rate of 4.6 percent per capita. Considering that the rate is not 8 percent, that seems realistic. China needs only 5.7 percent, half its current rate.
One of the main conclusions of the report is that long and fast growth of an economy is not a miracle; it is fully obtainable. In the second half of the 20th century, 13 countries were able to maintain GDP growth of 7 percent for no less than 25 years. Among them are not only Japan and Korea, but Botswana, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and Brazil. Of course, many of those countries started out at a very low level, which made it simpler to do. Nonetheless, the results of the economic policies of their neighbors were worse: the Philippines and Zimbabwe are not notable for their economic growth.
www.kommersant.com
All the Article in Russian as of May 27, 2008
|
