Russia Aiming for the East
The route of President Medvedev’s first overseas tour (Kazakhstan, and then China) hasn’t been chosen randomly. Some of our experts opine that Russia’s foreign policy in the East needs to be intensified due to several reasons.
There are integration processes throughout the world – in Europe, Eurasia, North America, Asia Pacific. The European Union, CIS, NAFTA and APEC account for a half of earth’s population and almost two thirds of the world GDP. And the Commonwealth of Independent States doesn’t comply with modern challenges at all. You shouldn’t expect unanimity from a body set up for a “civilized divorce” – it’s sometimes more difficult to reach agreement with some of the CIS members than with the EU. And, influenced by the global regionalization, Moscow and Astana might have some ideas regarding the matter. For example, they can create an integration core, succeed in it, and then attract other states using “soft power.” Besides, there are such integration bodies as the EurAsEC (Eurasian Economic Community) and the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization). Moscow and Astana only need to settle all their oil and gas issues, which are sure to be discussed by the presidents.
Kazakhstan seeks leadership in Central Asia – a region where the interests of the high and the mighty intersect. Oil and gas are at stake. It much depends on Astana’s decision whether they’ll be transported through Russia, or omit it. It’s clear that the energy significance of Kazakhstan goes beyond the region proper – Kazakh oil is supplied to Europe and the Far East. There is evidence that in May Moscow and Astana worked out a common approach towards the expansion of the Caspian pipeline consortium from 32 mln to 67 mln tons of oil annually. There is also agreement on Kazakhstan’s taking part in constructing the Burgas–Alexandroupolis oil pipeline.
It need be said that Kazakhstan has quite an influence in Europe. The state aims for the OSCE presidency. Whatever your attitude towards this organization, you shouldn’t disregard the presidency in it. While the OSCE functions, it is a reputation achievement for Kazakhstan. I’ve recently been to a political session of the PACE. Our Russian delegation supported Kazakhstan in its bid to become observer with another Pan-European body – the Council of Europe.
As to Russian President’s visit to China, it’s a natural desire of Russia, which is pushed aside by Europe, to consolidate its position in the Pacific Rim. Experts believe that Russia could become part and parcel of the region – not just oil and gas supplier, but a Western part of the trade space of the Asia Pacific region. Constructing rail roads that omit the unstable lands of Eurasia, APEC goods could be delivered to the European markets through Russia. It extends the economic borders of the APEC and diversifies the exports from the region. Today these exports are America-oriented. And diversification is a perfect means of providing security of the energy, as well as any other markets.
Mikhail Margelov, Federation Council Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee
All the Article in Russian as of May 22, 2008
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