Georgian authorities believe that, by naming a street in Tbilisi after George W. Bush, they have mastered the intricacies of American democracy.
Photo: Dmitry Lebedev
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The Ads Choose Saakashvili
// The United National Movement prepares to win the election
Parliamentary elections will be held today in Georgia. Kommersant’s correspondents look at the likely outcome of the elections and the chances of success for the opposition, which has declared that, if it loses, it will begin civil disobedience.
The elections campaign has been the most costly in the country’s history. One minute of airtime on the country’s leading television channels costs $10,000 and up during the day, topping out at $30,000 in prime time. TV companies were required to provide up to 10 seconds of free airtime per hour and one minute three times a day to each party. During the political ads, a message appeared on the screen saying whether the ad was paid or free. Observers noted that the message “Paid political advertisement” appeared mainly on ads for the ruling United National Movement Party. The opposition, whose modest financial means limited its purchases of airtime, thinks the authorities forced lading businessmen into providing it with financial support. “The National Movement has more media resources, more money and more political technology,” said political scientist Merab Pachulia. “And the opposition has no intellectual resources, no program and no money.”
In its campaigning, the ruling party emphasized its accomplishments and used the slogan “Deeds, not talk.” Coverage of new roads, bridges, schools, hospitals was a constant on television and official appeared on the screen talking about attracting Western investment and creating new jobs. Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili was especially visible on television, which is unsurprising, since, according to the opposition, “The ruling party is trying to take advantage of the resource of the president’s authority, since it does not have enough authority of its own.” Saakashvili was seen meeting with refugees, giving a refugee family living in a barrack the keys to a three-room apartment with a sea view, then he is receiving a military parade on Tbilisi’s Rustaveli Prospect.
The ad has been harshly criticized by the opposition. The United Opposition, made up of nine parties and movements, is considered the most radical wing of the opposition. For quite a while, the opposition refused to advertise on television at all, and for its free ads the message “They won’t let us on these channels” was shown. That message referred to the boycott television stations Rustavi 2 and Mze, controlled by businessmen close to the government, had declared against the United Opposition. After figures from the international community intervened, the president issued an order not to obstruct the opposition and the boycott was called off. Then ad appeared on both channels in place of the protest message.
The ads did not detail the opposition’s plans if it won the election, however. The sense of the opposition ads boiled down to “The Saakashvili regime will end on election day.” That was the whole message behind their entire campaign.
“The ruling party will receive half or a little more of the vote,” says Alexander Rondeli, director of the Center for Strategic and international Research, “and the opposition’s actions helped it. People are tired of the radical opposition’s unconstructive approach. The opposition has so radicalized political life that, if you’re not radical, you don’t count.”
Experts blame the authorities for the opposition’s radicalization. “They were so caught up in the surgery of reform that they forgot they needed social anesthesia,” Rondeli said. “But Saakashvili understood a lot after the presidential election and showed people that he had changed and his ministers had become socially oriented. Of course, many, with characteristic Caucasian stubbornness, don’t see that, but there was a swing in public opinion. People have come to see the pluses of Saakashvili. He has become a national leader. He is someone who has tried many things that no one else would dare to. Like corruption. The country has changed. Today it is a country with an army and a functional police force. One that can defend its citizens. The opposition does nothing but criticize. It doesn’t make suggestions. It looks at the actions of the authorities under a microscope, but only sees the negative. People are tired of that.” Pachulia agreed. “Saakashvili changed from what he was before November 7,” He said. “He learned how to talk to the people.”
But the main reason experts think the success of the National Movement is unavoidable is the non-radicalized opposition parties, which will enter the parliament and with which, many experts think, the authorities have already reached an agreement. Those parties include the former Imedi television journalist Georgy Targamadze’s Christian Democratic Party, which was founded a few months ahead of the elections. The radical opposition has repeatedly accused that party of lobbying the interests of the Interior Ministry. Targamadze denies those rumors. But experts are convinced that he authorities are counting in the party. Considering Targamadze’s former popularity on television, his party may take third place behind the United Opposition. “Even if the National Movement does not get a majority, they will attract to their side the opposition parties and majoritarians who enter the parliament for that purpose,” said Pachulia. “Thus, the National Movement will win any way.”
In spite of the favorable prognosis for the authorities, the situation remains tense in Georgia. That is mainly due to the actions of the United Opposition, which is calling on its supporters to take to the streets on May 21 and “take a stand for your victory.” Worries that the situation will get out of control and result in bloodshed led parliament speaker Nino Burjanadze to appeal to the authorities, opposition and the country’s citizens to “do everything you can to hold democratic and just elections.” At her last briefing before resigning, Burjanadze called the elections “a test of Georgia’s democracy.” In the speaker’s appeal to the authorities and the police, she speaks about the need for free expression of the will of the voters and the punishment of anyone who interferes with it. In her appeal to the Central Elections Commission, the speaker expresses the hope that all complaints from voters will be promptly examined. The speaker called on the opposition to be “peaceful and rational” in the elections and to make its protests according to the rules set out in legislation. “There are always winners and losers, and no matter how unacceptable the results are [to them], everyone has to respect that, if they objectively describe the disposition of the population,” Burjanadze said.
Peter Semneby, European Union representative in the North Caucasus, made a similar statement yesterday. He called “the political parties’ rhetoric” the main problem in the election campaigning. He said it was important that complaints be settled within the law and not through conflict, making it clear that the United Opposition could not count on support from the EU.
More than 3000 international observers will watch the elections. On the eve of the elections, four Georgian NGOs that set up a center for election observation published a report on campaign violations, in which they called attention to the active participation of government officials in the ruling party’s campaign “stirring the voters’ interest through giving material valuables and promises” and “blurring the distinction between the activities of the ruling party and the government.” On the whole, its assessment was positive. “A situation has been created in the country that allows the voters to make a free choice,” it concludes. Experts say that conclusion predetermines the conclusion the observers will make immediately after the election.”
Olga Alenova, Georgy Dvali, Tbilisi
All the Article in Russian as of May 21, 2008
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