Georgian Democratic Elections
Georgia is a presidential republic, and the parliamentary elections, whatever the outcome, won’t break the vertical of power in the country. Though they can stir it in case the opposition succeeds. This makes Mikhail Saakashvili act rigidly. The pressure on the opposition becomes one of the key tools for his administration during the current campaign.
As many as 26 members of the “Right alliance: Topadze–manufacturers” have been forced to withdraw their candidatures under that pressure. The only opposition TV broadcaster “Kavkasia” ceased its work because its transmitter broke. The company’s head, David Akubardia, noted with irony that the transmitter breaks every time ahead voting. We even needn’t mention that some influential opposition leaders have been virtually ousted from the country. The OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, so negatively treated by Moscow, has already reported a lot of flaws. The opposition says that vote fraud is possible (I’d say, inevitable).
With a fair play, the ruling “National movement – Democrats” would hardly gain the same number of mandates they have now – the government blissfully believes that the people adores it.
Evidently, there is a need for the ruling party to take advantage of the “external factor,” which, in case used properly, can yield extra votes. The external factor is the Abkhazia and South Ossetia challenges in the first place. Mikhail Saakashvili hasn’t succeeded much in resolving the conflicts, and the situation has remained unchanged since the “revolution of roses” – the one where Mikhail Saakashvili was promoted as the leader of the nation.
On the threshold of the voting some information has leaked out in the press that there is some “secret plan” envisaging the settling of the disputes. But why should you believe in wonders happening on New Year’s eve and ahead of elections? It seems like the tensions may even escalate. According to his adherents, Mikhail Saakashvili has recently had a tough talk with Vladimir Putin. And such talks usually bode ill for you. Russia’s peace-keepers have been ordered to act according to the situation (which actually means their readiness to use force).
But the escalation can be beneficial for President Saakashvili, who is seeking to use the external threat as a factor consolidating the Georgian society in support of the party in power. The message Mikhail Saakashvili wants to send is simple: How can you stir the government from the inside when the enemy is stirring it from the outside? So, Moscow helps its adversary to some extent, it is making the same mistake again.
As to the forthcoming Georgian voting, I think that it’ll be rendered democratic or half-democratic against all the odds. But I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of escalation in the aftermath. Because the votes of those dissatisfied will be barely counted. So, those dissatisfied will take to the streets again.
Professor Alexey Malashenko, Expert with Moscow’s Carnegie Center
All the Article in Russian as of May 20, 2008
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