01.09.2006 Russia, Moscow. Abkhazian President Sergey Bagapsh attends press conference devoted to the Kodori Gorge and the conflict beetwen Georgia and Abkhazia.
Photo: Grigoriy Sobchenko
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Georgian Plan to Be Coordinated
// Abkhazia to get Moscow's approval
Georgia-Abkhazia conflict settlement plan has been taken to Moscow
Tbilisi and Sukhumi have coordinated the outline of the Georgia-Abkhazia conflict settlement plan. According to the information of Kommersant, Abkhazia’s President Sergey Bagapsh, who arrives in Moscow for a visit today, will present this plan trying to get the consent of the Russian government to set to carrying it out. With Moscow mediating, Tbilisi and Sukhumi are planning to conclude a no-use-of-force agreement that envisages the returning of Georgian refugees to Abkhazia and the withdrawing of Georgia’s armed forces from the Kodori Gorge.
Secret plan
Officials with the Abkhazian government told Kommersant that Sergey Bagapsh will spend three days in Moscow. He will visit the Kremlin and the Russian government. Tomorrow he’ll be received by Russia’s Foreign Office Chief Sergey Lavrov. The negotiations will feature Tbilisi’s recent proposals regarding the Georgia-Abkhazia conflict settlement that Georgia’s ambassador to the UN Irakli Alasaniya handed over to Sukhumi last week.
Irakli Alasaniya visited Sukhumi May 12 and conducted negotiations behind closed doors with Sergey Bagapsh and Abkhazia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Shamba. The Georgian diplomat didn’t make his mission official and left the Tbilisi airport without answering a single question of the journalists. Nevertheless there was some information concerning the visit in Georgia’s mass media. For example, Head of the Georgian Parliament Committee for the Restoration of the country’s Territorial Integrity Shota Malashhia said that the emissary of Tbilisi “coordinated the mechanisms of the repatriation of refugees with representatives of the Abkhazian government.” Yesterday Sergey Shamba confirmed to Kommersant that they coordinated “a document about the means of resolving the most disputed matters in the relations” between Georgia and Abkhazia.
Mikhail Saakashvili also mentioned the agreement four days before Irakli Alasaniya’s visit when meeting with Russian journalists in Batumi. As he answered the question of Kommersant whether Georgia was ready to sign an agreement providing for no using of power to settle the Abkhazia conflict, President Saakashvili said that Tbilisi was ready to sign such an agreement at any moment. “I can sign it tomorrow if there are clear guarantees that the Georgian refugees will be able to come back to Abkhazia,” Mikhail Saakashvili stated. Georgia’s President made it the point that Tbilisi could give the population and government of Abkhazia any guarantees of security, including even the withdrawal of Georgian police units from the upper Kodori Gorge. It need be reminded that it was the invasion of Georgia’s units in the Kodori area that caused the suspension of the dialogue between Tbilisi and Sukhumi.
According to the information of Kommersant, the solution that Georgia’s President suggested via Irakli Alasaniya implies signing a legal document stipulating Georgia’s refusal to use any military means of conflict resolution, and the Abkhazian government’s guarantees not to impede Georgian refugees returning to Abkhazia. Yesterday Sergey Shamba didn’t rule out that possibility as he spoke with Kommersant. The Abkhazian Minister said, “We have reached consensus at the bilateral level, but there are still some details to coordinate.”
Evidently, the mechanism of the repatriation of refugees will be one of the most problematic parts of the agreement. So far Tbilisi and Sukhumi have different evaluations even of their numbers. Other problematic “details” may concern Russian peace-keepers. According to officials in the Russian Foreign Ministry, Russia has repeatedly tried to make Tbilisi conclude a no-use-of-force agreement with Abkhazia, but every time the Georgian party objected to the phrase about the positive role of the CIS peace-keepers, and the prolonging of their mandate, which Moscow was pressing for. Sergey Shamba said to Kommersant, “For Abkhazia, the confirmation of the mandate of Russia’s peace-keepers is an essential provision.” It means that this point must be included in the current draft. Sukhumi (and Moscow) may be satisfied with a reference to some document where the role of the peace-keepers is clearly articulated. These documents are the following, for example: The Moscow Agreements of 1994, or the Yalta Statement of 2001.
Security guarantees in the Kodori Gorge can become another bone of contention. The Georgian party is likely to make its counter-claims in exchange for its consent to withdraw police units from the upper Kodori area. Georgia’s Defense Minister David Kezarashvili told Kommersant that Tbilisi is worried by Russia’s including commandos and heavy artillery in the Collective CIS Peacekeeping Forces. The Georgian government opines that only motorized rifle units, not airborne troops, can have a peace-keeping mission in the conflict zone according to the 1994 Moscow Agreements. Yesterday Georgia’s Interior Ministry spokesperson Shota Utiashvili reported to Kommersant, “We have information that there are 1000 commandos in the Tkvarcheli region of Abkhazia.” Tbilisi may regard their withdrawal a sort of compensation for the Kodori Gorge demilitarization.
Friendly help
It’s quite probable that the present agreements between Tbilisi and Sukhumi wouldn’t have been negotiated unless someone (other than Moscow) had helped them. A day before Irakli Alasaniya’s unexpected visit another one was made: Matthew J. Bryza, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State, who is in charge of the South Caucasus and Georgia, arrived in Abkhazia. He was accompanied by John Tefft, U.S. Ambassador to Georgia. Mr Bryza was the first high-ranking American diplomat to visit the capital of the unrecognized republic, that’s why he was received by the Abkhazian President.
The Georgian party made no secret of its expectations from the visit of Matthew J. Bryza. “It’s a very important visit of U.S. high-ranking officials to Abkhazia. Not only Russians may talk to Abkhazians,” Temur Yakobashvili, Minister of State for Reintegration of Georgia, said May 11. “The USA is an unbiassed party which can persuade the Abkhazians to start a bilateral dialogue with Georgia.”
After negotiations behind closed doors with Sergey Bagapsh and Sergey Shamba, Matthew J. Bryza said that he hoped for “conducting a direct dialogue without any mediators” between Tbilisi and Sukhumi. Later it was announced that a possibility of a meeting between Sergey Bagapsh and Condoleezza Rice was discussed during the negotiations. The Washington emissary didn’t deny Russia’s role in the further conflict settlement. “I hope that Tbilisi and Sukhumi together with Moscow will find common ways of reducing tensions in the conflict zone,” the American diplomat concluded his speech. At that time no one could understand what he meant.
Sergey Shamba answered to the proposal of the American guest, “We have repeatedly told our Georgian and American counterparts that the resume of the talks between Tbilisi and Sukhumi is possible only in case Georgia’s troops are withdrawn from the Kodori Gorge and the government signs a no-use-of-power treaty. Other variants are out of the question.” Nonetheless these talks resumed right after Irakli Alasaniya’s visit to Sukhumi. He is one of the few Georgian politicians who enjoys the confidence of the Abkhazian government. It seems like Matthew J. Bryza had negotiated this visit, which means that the Georgian government peace initiatives have been approved of by Washington.
It’s up to Moscow
In case signed, the agreements will become a breakthrough in the Georgia-Abkhazia conflict settlement. But to succeed, this initiative must be endorsed in Moscow. Without Russia’s approval, no agreement between Moscow and Tbilisi will come into force. Officials with the Abkhazian Foreign Ministry dropped a hint to Kommersant that Sergey Bagapsh set off for Moscow to receive the approval. At the same time Sukhumi doesn’t know for sure what to expect from Moscow. “We know nothing yet. We’ll see what they’ll tell us in Moscow,” Sergey Shamba noted.
It’s not easy to predict how Russia will react. It rejected all previous initiatives of Tbilisi regarding the Georgia-Abkhazia conflict settlement, with the latest example being Sergey Lavrov’s violent reaction to a proposal to hold Abkhazia peace conference in Moscow, which was handed over by Temur Yakobashvili.
Abkhazian officials told Kommersant that to enlist Moscow’s support, Tbilisi intends to offer it the status of the guarantor of the agreements between Georgia and Abkhazia. If Moscow approves of concluding the agreement, it can be signed by Mikhail Saakashvili and Sergey Bagapsh on the territory of the Russian Federation with President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin present. The treaty could be concluded during July’s CIS summit in St. Petersburg, which Mikhail Saakashvili is going to attend, according to the information of Kommersant. Sochi could be a suitable venue as well.
For Russia, this outcome, along with the solution to the Transnistria conflict prepared in the Kremlin, could be the manifestation of its peace-keeping effectiveness. Though these matters have a major difference: Unlike Moldova’s President Vladimir Voronin, Georgia’s leader hasn’t claimed ready to abandon his NATO plans. At the same time Mikhail Saakashvili assured Kommersant in Batumi that NATO admission was not Georgia’s end in itself, and in case the territorial integrity is restored, the issue of joining the alliance “could be resumed.”
Alexander Gabuev
All the Article in Russian as of May 19, 2008
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