The Strange Compromise
The information from the Russia-Georgia relations front has been almost the same for years. Mutual accusations of hostile activities, spy hunting and economic conflicts have become routine. Curiously, Abkhazia has a special role in this situation. Thanks to the unrecognized republic, the relations between Moscow and Tbilisi have reached the international level. First, Abkhazia is a good reason to reproach Moscow for its policy of double standards, which is manifested in backing breakaway movements on the post-Soviet territories. Second, the frozen Georgia-Abkhazia conflict can resume in theory, which would be highly undesirable for the region as well as the international community.
Taking account of the current state of affairs in the relations between Russia and Georgia, the announcement of agreements between Mikhail Saakashvili and Sergey Bagapsh seems surprising. The positions of the two leaders don’t appear irreconcilable any more, allowing for dialogue and even consensus in some way. Besides, Tbilisi and Sukhumi are conducting direct talks without mediators. Moscow can confine itself to the role of the guarantor of the agreements, which is simultaneously the reduction and confirmation of its role. On the one hand, Russia doesn’t participate in the agreements. On the other hand, it is Russia, rather than the UN, – a country that sanctioned the presence of the peace-keeping mission in Abkhazia – that is the guarantor of the agreements. And third, Russia doesn’t seem to mind the role though it has recently threatened to apply the Kosovo precedent to Abkhazia.
Can all the parties in the Abkhazian conflict settlement have abandoned their positions? If it’s true, what caused the change? At the present stage it’s actually too early to talk about achievements and changes. It will take the counterparts much time and effort to carry out the agreements, and either party may even quit. This can be expected from Tbilisi as well as from Sukhumi. In this case Russia’s guarantees won’t be of much help. Its opportunity to influence the situation in Abkhazia using any means other than peace-keeping ones will be restricted unless its role is extended when concluding the Georgia-Abkhazia agreement. And even in this case you can doubt the eagerness of Sukhumi and Tbilisi to endow Moscow with the right to force them to fulfil the agreements. More to the point, it’s hard to imagine what this coercion would look like. So both agreements between Tbilisi and Sukhumi and Russia’s guarantees are too vague to launch an irreversible process of Georgia-Abkhazia peace settlement.
Nonetheless you can anticipate change that these agreements bear. Why then would the parties claim ready to reach compromise? Perhaps, Tbilisi intends to make another step towards NATO, and Sukhumi is planning to eliminate what it views as Georgia’s imminent threat, and define its international status. And Moscow may want to pursue a foreign policy complying with the image of the new “liberal” President.
Peter Topychkanov, Expert with the Carnegie Moscow Center
All the Article in Russian as of May 19, 2008
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