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Serbia Is Short of Democratic Choice
// The President’s party will have to form a coalition
His party will form Serbia’s new government
Notwithstanding prognoses, Boris Tadic’s Democratic party won a decisive victory in the Serbian parliamentary elections. But the Democrats and their main rivals, the nationalists of the Serbian radical party, have equal chances to form a government. Everything depends on the position of the Socialist Party set up by Slobodan Milosevic. Kommersant special correspondent Mikhail Zygar reports from Belgrade.
Unexpected victory
Polling stations in Serbia closed at 8 p.m. Sunday, but at 9 o’clock there were no preliminary results or exit-polls yet. Sociologists simply couldn’t believe the data they were getting. At half past nine Zoran Lucic, head of the reputed CESID sociological service of Serbia, held a briefing for journalists. You could see astonishment on his face.
“The present results are quite unexpected for us. According to the polls we conducted a week ago, the outcome was to be different. But exit-polls show that the coalition “For Democratic Serbia” led by President Boris Tadic gained an outright victory,” Mr Lucic said smiling.
Obviously, the CESID didn’t want to announce the results of exit-polls because they feared that it could have been some bug in the system – according to all previous polls, the Serbian radical party was to win victory. But the exit-polls data was confirmed by the Central Election Committee. The coalition of Boris Tadic received 38.7% of the votes. The Serbian radical party, headed by Voislav Sheshel accused of military crimes by the Hague Tribunal, came second (29.1%). The bloc founded by the Democratic Party of Serbia of Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica gained 11.3%. The alliance of three parties – the Socialist Party that Slobodan Milosevic once headed, the Party of Pensioners and United Serbia – got 7.9% of the votes. Besides, with 5.2% of the votes, the liberal democrats and three parties of national minorities (Hungarian, Muslim and Albanian) will be present in the parliament as well.
Soon Boris Tadic arrived at the headquarters of the Democratic Party. His supporters were shocked to see the unexpectedly good result. He was also a bit amazed, and he was trying to be as serious as he could.
“We are not going to celebrate it now. We have to form a coalition, first of all,” he said as his adherents brought a large Moet & Chandon bottle. They opened the champagne, poured it to the party leaders who came there, and they drank to the future coalition that will actually be really difficult to form.
At the same time cars with the flags of the Democratic Party drove throughout Belgrade. Its supporters began convening in the center, near the party’s Belgrade office, located in a skyscraper in Republic Square. The celebration was at its height as Boris Tadic waved his hand looking out the window of his headquarters. The people waved flags, and he claimed that it was a mutual victory since the majority of Serbs chose the European way of development for Serbia, and he would not allow his rivals from the radical party to form a coalition.
Russian MPs from the State Duma and the Federation Council, who openly supported the radicals, were evidently disappointed at the outcome of the voting. But they stated that they didn’t doubt the results. Nonetheless, Igor Borissov, member of the Russian Central Electoral Committee, told Kommersant that the sudden spurt of the President’s party might have been brought about by the administrative resource. “It’s the first time I see that the “pre-election silence” lasts for two days, not one. Curiously, no political analyst can explain the fact that the rating of the President soared right before the elections. But it’s no surprise if you take account of the fact that the state mass media in regular news blocks continued to agitate for the line of the government on the last two days when agitation was actually forbidden. Such measures can provide another 5% to the party. But it is more of a shortcoming of the Serbian law on elections, which envisages the two-day silence,” Mr Borissov said.
Non-festive pig
At the radical’s headquarters in the outskirts of Belgrade, Zemun, you could feel confusion in the air. The journalists expected either of the party leaders – the chairman Tomislav Nicolic or his deputy Dragan Todorovic – to hold a briefing, but neither would appear. Instead, a fried pig was brought to the journalists, which is a traditional Serbian dish that the radicals usually eat when celebrating victory. They had triumphed in two previous parliamentary campaigns and they reckoned to win an even clearer victory this time. These elections were the first ones after Kosovo’s declaration of independence. The radicals were sure that the popularity of their party, pledging not to put up with the loss of the region and stand up for its retrieval, was to rocket. But the utterly emotional, even hysterical race focusing on the Kosovo issue only must have wearied many voters.
Tomislav Nicolic came to the journalists late when all the leaders of the other parties had held briefings at their headquarters. He was very pale and confessed that he deliberately postponed his briefing because first he wanted to hear what his opponents would say.
Tomislav Nicolic was most irritated by President Tadic’s phrase said to his excited adherents that he would not allow the radicals to form a coalition.
“Is it an appeal to civil war? We came first in the two previous elections, and had we once claimed that we would not allow for a coalition without our participation, civil war would have broken out in the country, for sure,” Mr Nicolic stated impassively.
It’s true that the radicals have quite a chance to form a government, even regardless of their second place in the elections.
The Prime Minister of the failed coalition Vojislav Kostunica said that this time he would be no partner of President Tadic’s coalition. Rather, he would form a coalition with the radicals. And Tomislav Nicolic claimed yesterday for the first time that he was eager to form a coalition with Mr Kostunica even if it was needed to waive his ambitions. It virtually means that the radicals may give Mr Kostunica the post of the PM in the new government.
According to the source of Kommersant familiar with the leading officials of the radical party, even Voislav Sheshel (now in prison in the Hague) agreed to give Mr Kostunica PM after tough negotiations.
All the same, the radicals and the party of Prime Minister Kostunica have only 107 seats in the parliament, whereas they need 125 to have the majority. The seats they lack can be provided by the adherents of Slobodan Milosevic – they have exactly 20 mandates.
The Party of Pensioners will determine it
“No coalition is possible without our party,” Ivica Dacic, leader of the Socialist party said before the voting. He turned out right: Now it is his decision that will determine the composition of the future coalition in Serbia. Seven year later after the collapse of the Slobodan Milosevic regime his party has the opportunity to choose which of the parties that once toppled his government will win this time.
Unlike Vojislav Kostunica, who has already decided to be ally of the radicals, Ivica Dacic hasn’t made such statements yet. The program of the socialists very much resembles that of Mr Kostunica. On the threshold of the elections Chairman of the Socialist Party Central Committee Deyan Batskovic told Kommersant that the socialists didn’t mind Eurointegration, but only in case the EU admitted Serbia within its internationally recognized border, that is including Kosovo. But there is much to resemble the program of the Boris Tadic party. Besides, the former adherents of Milosevic didn’t say that a coalition with the President was out of the question. On the contrary, the leaders of the party said that they would consider any variants.
So now is the time for big horse-trading. Without the Socialist Party, the democrats of Boris Tadic won’t be able to form a government coalition. Even if the liberal democrats and the parties of national minorities join them, the coalition will have only 123 mandates, whereas 126 is needed. So Boris Tadic has to win over the socialists. If the Socialist Party forms a coalition with the Democrats and the national minorities parties, the alliance will have exactly 130 seats. For the bloc the Socialist Party – the Party of Pensioners –United Serbia, this coalition can be even more beneficial. They will get more posts in the government, compared with an alliance with the Vojislav Kostunica party, since they will range second, not third, in terms of the number of the mandates. More to the point, the socialists have been trying to improve their image getting rid of the reputation of Milosevic’s former team and appearing a renewed left-centrist party. An alliance with the democrats will help them to achieve it. According to the information of Kommersant, in case the democrats, socialists and ethnic minorities manage to form a coalition, Bozidar Djelic, who is Deputy PM now, will have every chance to become Prime Minister. He has recently signed an agreement between Serbia and the EU on behalf of the government.
The decision of the socialists about the direction of Serbia’s development can be influenced by external forces, Russia, for instance. First, the Serbian Socialist Party has always had close ties with Moscow. Besides, last month Ivica Dacic came to Moscow as the honored guest of the “Fair Russia” party congress and delivered a speech there along with a representative of China’s Communist Party. High-raking diplomats in Belgrade told Kommersant that Moscow’s stance is enough to prompt Ivica Dacic to make the right choice. Moreover, Russia’s Foreign Ministry Chief Sergey Lavrov approved of the agreement between Serbia and the EU.
Yesterday all political banners and posters were taken down in Belgrade. Their place is now taken by Eurovision bills – the contest will be held in the Serbian capital in two weeks. A year ago Serbia’s victory in the Eurovision was a good sign for the democrats – they managed to form a government coalition on the same day.
Mikhail Zygar
All the Article in Russian as of May 13, 2008
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