If the Serbian Radical Party, headed by Tomislav Nikolic (in the photo), wins in the parliamentary elections, Serbia may face international isolation.
Photo: AP
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Serbia Tied with St. George's Ribbon
// Russia may receive the majority in the Serbian parliament
Parliamentary elections took place in Serbia yesterday. The nationalistic Serbian Radical Party is favored to win. If the radicals are able to form a ruling coalition, they promise to move Serbia back in the direction of Russia and, in exchange, demand massive economic aid from Moscow. Kommersant special correspondent Mikhail Zygar watches Russian-Serbian friendship in the making from Serbia.
“Patriots” and “Traitors”
Two days before the elections, when campaigning was already no longer allowed, the Serbian government made two important decisions. First, the cabinet unanimously voted to conclude an agreement on oil and gas with Russia to allow Gazprom to acquire Petroleum Industry of Serbia.
“We did not want any party to use that agreement for campaigning,” explained former speaker of the Serbian parliament Dragoljub Micunovic, a member of President Boris Tadic’s Democratic Party. “Now several Serbian parties are competing over who loves Russia more. We are no less friends of Russian than the party of Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica, so we don’t want to give him the chance to take credit for reaching the agreement with Gazprom. President Tadic signed that agreement.”
That is why the Democratic Party intentionally delayed the government’s confirmation of the agreement – so as not to give its political competition campaign points.
The only party that is not trying to show that it loves Russia is Cedomir Jovanovic’s liberal democrats. On Friday, that party held a mass meeting near the government headquarters to protest the sale of the national oil company to Gazprom. Jovanovic holds that the oil company should be sold in an open tender that European buyers can also participate in. The liberal democrats received 7 percent of the vote in last year’s parliamentary elections and they are likely to do as well again this year. Their lack of popularity is not because they do not want to be friends with Russia, but because they think Serbia should let go of Kosovo, face reality and concentrate on entering the European Union.
The second important decision the government made was to confirm an agreement with the EU. Deputy Prime Minister Bozidar Djelic, also a member of Tadic’s Democratic Party, signed that agreement. Kostunica refused to recognize the signing of that agreement, however, and accused the presidential party of betraying national interests. As Dusan Prorokovic, an advisor to the prime minister from the ministry for Kosovo and Metohija, explained, it is stated in the agreement with the EU that it does not apply to the territory of Kosovo. That means, the prime minister’s advisor says, that, by signing the agreement, the Democratic Party in practice agrees to the independence of Kosovo. The president’s camp does not think so.
“In the course of the campaign, many politicians have tried to misuse patriotism,” says Micunovic. “They said, ‘We are patriot, and all the rest are traitors.’ That is, of course, is a decline in the level of the campaign. No one argues about the economy, about combating corruption, [there is only] a burst of emotion over Kosovo.”
Micunovic does not mention patriotism and treason by chance. After the signing of the agreement with the EU, signed appeared in Belgrade calling for the killing of President Tadic “for betraying the homeland.” Micunovic said that they were put up by a group of soccer fans who accused the president of “selling Kosovo for the sake of entering the EU.”
The topic of political killing has come up in the current campaign more than once. A few days before the elections, black posters appeared in the Serbian capital with the inscription “Coalition Prime Minister” and two photographs: one of Kostunica and one of a man pointing a pistol. The poster had a double meaning. First, it said that it was Kostunica who killed the current democratic coalition and, second, it hinted that the head of government was involved in the most notorious political killing in the modern history of Serbia – the death of Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic in 2003.
In Kostunica’s party, they say supporters of the president put up the posters.
“Does that mean there can be no coalition between you and the president’s party?” I asked Jovan Palalic, chairman of the executive committee of Kostunica’s party.
“Yes, it would be hard after all that has happened between us, very hard,” he answered.
“So it will be easier for you to reach an agreement with the radicals?”
“With them? Maybe, but everything will be determined after the elections.”
The current elections are different from all that have come before not only because the radical party has a real chance for the first time of winning and forming the government, but also because it is being held on the territory of Kosovo as well. For the last ten years, the UN mission has organized the elections in Kosovo, and the Albanians took part in them, while the Serbs boycotted them. Now the Kosovo Serbs voted only not for the Serbian parliament, they voted for local authorities as well. But the UN, OSCE and Kosovo government do not recognize those elections. Belgrade decided to hold the elections any way to form Serbian government authorities to counterbalance the Albanian ones.
“So Serbian has followed the example of Georgia?” I ask a member of the Russian observers’ delegation. “Mikheil Saakashvili created the government of Dmitry Sanakoev in South Ossetia to counterbalance the government of Eduard Kokoity. Belgrade is forming its government authority in Kosovo to counterbalance Prishtina in exactly the same way, isn’t it?”
“Yes, that’s right. That’s just what’s happening,” he replied. “But I didn’t say that.”
Nashi in Belgrade
There was a feeling of slight psychosis in Belgrade the day before the elections. Although campaigning was officially prohibited, the emotions had not run out. On Knez Milos St., near the Hotel Moscow, and old man climbed a fountain and began shouting that Serbia must not give up Kosovo no matter how much the Europeans pressured them. Many passersby were ready to argue with him but no one seemed to have thought he had gone crazy and no one tried to get him out of the fountain.
Not far from there, on Knez Mihailova St., the youth movement Serbian Gates handed out booklets and St. George’s ribbons.
“What’s that ribbon?” asked passing girls, mystified.
“It’s the ribbon of St. George. In Russia, it’s the symbol of victory. You know, May 9 is Victory Day in Russia. Did you see the parade they had?”
They nodded. Everybody saw the parade on Red Square on the television news. And almost everybody in Belgrade was just crazy about it.
“We have had many wars lately and not one victory. So it is very pleasant to see the Russians celebrate Victory Day, very pleasant,” Dragan, a Belgrade student told me.
“Where did you get the St. George’s ribbon?” I asked the Serbian activists.
“Komsomol members sent it to us from Russia,” they said.
“Komsomol members?”
“Well, yes. Or are they called something else now?”
I found out on the official website of Nashi that they sent the ribbon to the Serbian Gates.
“Why are you giving out ribbon when campaigning is prohibited now?” I asked.
“We’re not campaigning for anyone. Today is Europe Day and that is what we are observing. We are trying to answer the question what is the European Union, and what concessions do we have to make to become a member of it, and why don’t they give us any alternative except joining it.”
“Well, an alternative to joining the EU might be joining the CIS,” I suggested. “Do you want Serbia to be part of the CIS?”
“We know what the CIS is. But we would like Serbia to begin a public discussion about what the European Union is and whatthey demand from us to become a member of it. We want to be part of Europe, but we should know the price.”
Realists and Idealists
The Serbian politicians who met with the election observers from the Russian State Duma and Federation Council the same day sounded rather more convincing in their love for Russia. Dragoljub Micunovic from President Tadic’s “pro-Western” Democratic Party told a long story about how he fought the Fascists when he was 14 years old and how happy he was to see the military parade in Moscow. And he said that it would be good for Russia if Serbia joined the EU. Then it would have a loyal ally and lobbyist inside it.
The legislators looked at him seriously but not hostilely.
“If they tell you that Russia is against Serbia becoming closer to the European Union, don’t believe it. That’s not true,” Vasily Likhachev, senator from Ingushetia, told him soothingly.
It is true, though, that the Russian parliamentarians were somewhat friendlier to the leaders of the Serbian Radical Party. Dragan Todorovic, one of the party’s leaders, told the Russians that Serbia should not look to the West, but very soon it will turn to the East and trade and cooperate exclusively with Russia.
“If we are able to form a coalition,” he said, “it will be very hard for us for three or four months at least. The West will increase its pressure on us. They will devaluate the dinar and all Western investment will be cut off. Without Russian help, we won’t be able to make it. In recent years, we have survived and understood that Russia has its own problems. But now, when Russia has become strong and gotten off its knees, and held a military parade again on May 9, we are waiting for it to help us finally. But if seem suddenly that Russia doesn’t need Serbia, we won’t be able to do it ourselves.”
The Russian parliamentarians wished the Serbian radicals luck and Duma member from the LDPR Irina Gorkova gave them a letter from the leaders of her party and a gift bottle of Zhirinovsky-brand vodka.
Then the Russians met with members of Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica’s party. They complained that the supporters of President Tadic were trying to buy votes by giving out groceries.
“Don’t worry, we’re with you,” the Russian parliamentarians assured them. “Sleep calmly.”
“What politicians seemed the most convincing to you?” I asked the Russians after their meetings.
“Probably Micunovic from Tadic’s party,” Irina Gorkova from the LDPR confessed unexpectedly. “He’s a realist, and all of the others are idealists.”
“But he’s completely anti-Russian!” Mikhail Emelyanov from Just Russia objected.
“And so we didn’t smile at him. But he isn’t really anti-Russian, he’s a just a realist,” Gorkova insisted.
“All the same, I think the most convincing ones are the radicals,” Emelyanov insisted. “What the democrats are trying to convince of is an illusion. They can’t be friends with Russia and the West at the same time. It won’t work. The West will make them make a choice.”
“Is Russia ready to take responsibility for Serbia?” I asked.
“There’s only 9 million in Serbia,” answered Emelyanov. “I have more than 4 million living in Rostov Region. For Russia, 9 million isn’t so many. We could feed them easily. Moreover, there’s a lot to take here. It’s a good market, we need to buy the airport and JAT airlines. Then the copper-smelting plant. Deripaska tr4ied to buy it three times, but they wouldn’t give it to him because the West pressured them. Now everything will work out for us.”
Mikhail Zygar, Belgrade
All the Article in Russian as of May 12, 2008
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