Moscow: Betting on the Serbs
Many people tend to regard the current Serbian elections as referendum that is to answer the question which way Belgrade will go – in the EU or Russia direction? Allegedly, if the democrats, headed by President Tadic win, Serbia will turn its back on Moscow, favoring Brussels more; in case radicals together with Vojislav Kostunica, who joined them, triumph, everything will be just the other way round.
In reality, this dilemma is false. First, no powerful party in the Serbian arena doubts the development of normal relations with Russia. Second, 75% of Serbs support Serbia entering the EU. So, whoever comes to power in Belgrade, these facts are to be taken into consideration.
Nonetheless, Moscow allowed involving itself in this false dilemma, deciding to play up to the moderate nationalist Vojislav Kostunica. A week before the elections, the outgoing Serbian Prime Minister proudly declared to the nation that he had received “a personal message” from Vladimir Putin. On the final day of the campaign agitation, the Duma International Affairs Committee Chairman Konstantin Kosachev flew to Belgrade to take part in a rally of Kostunica’s party.
It seems that Moscow proceeded from the assumption that none of the Serbian top politicians would manage to form a government, and this time Vojislav Kostunica will have “the golden share” as has been the case for years. So, in Moscow’s view, the ties with him were to be made closer. But this was its first mistake. After these elections Mr Kostunica is unlikely to stay afloat for a long time: The democrats have squabbled with him, and the radicals will need him only within a short period of time.
Another mistake lies in the belief that Vojislav Kostunica embodies some sort of a mid-way – both with the EU and Russia. But he has actually turned into a mere appendage of the radicals. As things stand now, Moscow can only choose between two camps – the democrats of Boris Tadic and the radicals of Tomislav Nikolic. Regarding Moscow’s long-term interests in the Balkans, there is no use struggling for Mr Nikolic: He has already pledged to allocate a Russian military base in the country. But it is vital to develop good relations with Mr Tadic. Not only because he will remain President for 5 years, but also because he represents the forces advocating Serbia’s good relations with Russia, as well as the West.
As the history of the country witnesses, Serbia has no other way to go. At least in the long run. The Kingdom of Yugoslavia swung between Austria-Hungary and the Russian Empire, and the socialist Yugoslavia under Tito – between the USSR and the West.
Boris Tadic, by the way, stuck to the promise he gave Vladimir Putin: Two days before the elections the ministers of his government provided for the adoption of an oil and gas agreement with Russia by the Serbian government. The agreement will allow Gazprom to purchase Serbia’s largest oil and gas company and consolidate its position in the Balkans. So Moscow won’t lose whatever the outcome of the Serbian elections.
Gennady Sysoev, columnist
All the Article in Russian as of May 12, 2008
|
