U.S. Presidential Election: Prospects
In spite of his defeat in Pennsylvania, Obama is likely to be nominated. First, much more delegates have sided with him rather than with Ms Clinton, second he’s far more better-off than his competitor. According to Associated Press, by early April Obama had raised $42 mln, whereas Clinton had been deep in debt.
Nonetheless no one can offer a 100% guarantee that Obama will get the Democratic nomination. His chances to defeat John McCain are not much higher than those of Ms Clinton. So, even from a practical point of view, you can’t decide on either of the candidates. As an advisor with the Democratic Party put it, “Either can win the presidential election, but those who believed that the Democrats would easily win the White House, turned out mistaken.” It need be added that either can lose the forthcoming election, too.
There is a widespread assumption that while the Democrats squabble, McCain scores points. But this can be argued as well. Those critical of the viewpoint believe that the rivalry between Clinton and Obama has mobilized the Democratic voters as never before, and the high turnout will be the essential, though not the only, key to success. Another argument: Despite the fact that McCain’s competitors have been absorbed in the infighting, his rating hasn’t grown that much, and his fund is far poorer than that of the Democrats. Counter-argument: Now that the rival hasn’t been determined yet, Republicans prefer not to waste effort in vain. When it comes to the final battle, the Republicans will launch their destruction machine, which repeatedly proved effective (recall the Al Gore case, for instance). They will take advantage of a minor weakness suddenly striking an unexpected blow.
Both Democrats have Achilles’ heels, but every drawback can appear benefit, and vice versa. Hillary is a real fighter, tempered in the struggle against the Republicans during her husband’s terms as President. Now she will be able to confront their pressure as well. But some of the voters denied her support considering her a little too aggressive. Obama lacks experience, and unlike Clinton, can’t ward off blows. But he is the symbol of change, which helped him attract a number of new voters.
When the Democratic nominee is finally determined, the party’s ability to quickly and effectively concentrate all efforts on a decisive blow will be the major factor. More to the point, the loser will have to curb his/her ambitions and remember the party’s interests. Today Obama and Clinton are the worst enemies, but the one to be defeated will have to give support to the former rival. At the same time the Republicans will resort to the tricks the Democrats used against each other.
Maria Lipman, expert with the Carnegie Moscow Center
All the Article in Russian as of Apr. 24, 2008
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