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Presidential Nominee Election
// Hillary Clinton beats Barack Obama in Pennsylvania
Yesterday the results of Pennsylvania Democratic primary were officially announced. With her hard-won victory over the leader of the race, Barack Obama, Senator Clinton got a chance to keep on struggling to become the Democratic nominee. At the same time, Ms Clinton’s reluctance to quit threatens with a fissure within the Democratic Party, which can make a number of voters cast their ballots for John McCain.
Numbers matter
With its nerve-strain, the Pennsylvania primary, where 158 delegates of the 2008 Democratic National Convention were at stake, resembled the final stage of the presidential race. The U.S. ex-First Lady and Senator from New York Hillary Clinton, and Senator from Illinois Barack Obama have really challenged each other. Thousands of adherents of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, who rushed to the polling stations Tuesday, appeared politically engaged and enthusiastic as they shouted out the names of their idols and waved banners, posters and other agitation staff.
Before the Pennsylvania battle, Barack Obama was more than 100 points ahead of the U.S. ex-First Lady, with the gap between them ranging from 129 to 171 votes (depending on the system of count used). But the polls suggested that Pennsylvania, with its high proportion of whites and blue collars, traditionally supporting Ms Clinton, might be the straw she could catch to stay afloat even though her campaign hasn’t been much success. Besides, Hillary Rodham Clinton’s family comes from the State of Pennsylvania, which was another factor to inspire the ex-First Lady.
Account taken of the voters’ sentiments, Barack Obama knew he would not be able to defeat Ms Clinton. So his goal was to minimize the gap, namely to 10%. “I do not expect victory. I expect that the gap will be marginal and we’ll do better than you think,” Senator Obama stated in his interview to a Pittsburgh radio-station Monday. With the complex system of vote counting in the Democratic “all-round competitions”, such a “defeat of honour” would actually mean Barack Obama’s victory, because Hillary Clinton wouldn’t be able to gain the required number of delegates’ votes she needs badly.
As a result, the Pennsylvania intrigue boiled down to the question how much the ex-First Lady would receive in real terms. This question, however, brought up another one: Whether Ms Clinton would keep her struggle for the Democratic nomination after April 22, or whether it would get clear this week that the November presidential election will be a duel between Barack Obama of the Democratic Party and John McCain of the Republican one.
The strong Hillary
Hillary Clinton understood that the Pennsylvania primary could become her last primary, and on its eve she did her best to arrive at the desired two-digit percent. All effective means were applied. On the day of voting the ABC channel broadcast an interview with Ms Clinton where she sensationally confessed that if elected President of the United States, she wouldn’t rule out the possibility of striking a staggering blow against Iran. “In the next 10 years, during which they might foolishly consider launching an attack on Israel, we would be able to totally obliterate them,” Clinton said, adding, “I want the Iranians to know that.” Curiously, neither any President of the USA nor any high-ranking military official has ever been that tough on Iran (including George Bush’s neo-conservatives fostering the use of military force addressing global challenges).
“We must overcome everything. The decisive day is here and now, the whole world is watching us,” appealed Ms Clinton to blue collars during a rally in Screnton. Her latest TV ad that was broadcast on election eve motivated the voters as well. A voice that accompanied footage showing the images of terrorist #1 Osama bin Laden and the views of the areas destroyed by Hurricane Katrina, reminded of “the two wars, soaring oil prices and economic crisis.” “If you can’t bear the heat, leave the kitchen,” the voice went on. The main idea of the ad came down to the following: only the one eager to take up “the most challenging job on Earth” – that of the President of the United States – would be able to solve the whole lot of problems. And of course, Hillary Clinton is the one to do it.
As preliminary results of the Pennsylvania primary were published Tuesday night, it got obvious that Ms Clinton’s victory was not the Pyrrhic one – she was 10% ahead of Barack Obama. After the final outcome is announced and complex calculations are carried out, it will be clear how many delegates Hillary Clinton won over in Pennsylvania. Observers point out that unable to catch up with Barack Obama, the ex-First lady managed to narrow the gap separating her from the leader of the Democratic race, which rendered the appeals to her to quit at the current stage irrelevant.
“I’m in this race for you, to fight for everyone who’s ever been counted out. The American people don’t quit, and they deserve a president that doesn’t quit, either.” Clinton told her supporters in Philadelphia Tuesday night. “I can stumble and even fall, but as long as you are with me, I’ll rise again,” Ms Clinton assured her voters. “It’s a long road to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, and it runs right through the heart of Pennsylvania,” she told the cheering crowd.
A Republican wins in the Democratic struggle
Avoiding the outcome that would mark the end of her election campaign, Hillary Clinton prolonged the struggle against her competitor for two weeks at least – till the next primaries in Indiana and North Carolina, scheduled May 6. Interestingly, Mr Obama left for Indiana before the Pennsylvania polling stations closed, with Ms Clinton following him a few hours later. The battle over Indiana and North Carolina is expected to be harsh and straight-out as well, but Hillary Clinton, having to catch up with her contender, will find herself in a far more disadvantageous position. New stunning victories of Barack Obama can annihilate the result the ex-First Lady managed to achieve in Pennsylvania.
After Indiana and North Carolina, Democratic primaries will be held in Oregon, Kentucky, West Virginia, Montana, South Dakota and Puerto-Rico, with a caucus convening in Guam as well. The primaries season ends June 3, and unless Hillary Clinton gives up at the final stage of the primaries, the Democratic nomination will be decided on at the 2008 Democratic National Convention in Denver, CO. In this case besides the delegates, the so-called superdelegates – former Presidents, governors, party activists able to vote the way they want – will have the right to pass judgement.
According to polls, the bitter struggle within the Democratic Party, abundant in mutual attacks and accusations, makes the images of the Democratic challengers less attractive. Polls conducted before the Pennsylvania primary suggest that the lack of a single leader of Democrats raises the chances of the Senator from Arizona, John McCain. More than a quarter those supporting Hillary Clinton said that in case she lost to Barack Obama, they would cast their ballots for John McCain of the Republican Party. Two respondents out of ten confessed that in case it came to the Obama vs. McCain duel, they would not go to the polling stations at all. Only 68% of Barack Obama’s adherents would vote for Hillary Clinton if she got the nomination.
This said, the struggle for the post of the President has become tenser, and the prospect of the almost inevitable victory of a Democratic candidate to succeed the unpopular Republican George Bush seems vague.
Sergey Strokan
All the Article in Russian as of Apr. 24, 2008
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