17.10.2006 Georgia, Tbilisi. Georgian Parliament Speaker Nino Burjanadze gives an interview.
Photo: Dmitry Lebedev
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The Abkhazia Factor
In the case of the unmanned spy plane shot down over the territory of Abkhazia it is the flying path of the MiG-29 jet fighter that is the most curious thing to consider, rather than Russia’s arms “showing up” in the zone of the conflict again. According to the Georgian party, the jet took off from a military base in Gudaut. The existence of this military base has irritated Tbilisi for quite a long time. Georgian military repeatedly assured me that on the territory of this base there is a real Russian military arsenal, and it is underground. Allegedly, there has been a secret military object there since the Soviet times. That is why the UN experts who managed to get the permission to inspect the sight, couldn’t find anything there.
The mentioning of the Gudaut military base in the recent reports of the Georgian Ministry of Defense was the last straw for Mikhail Saakashvili. But the incident in the sky of Abkhazia was not the reason for his calling President Putin.
The recent orders Vladimir Putin gave to the Russian government are a sign of the final fusion of Abkhazia into the economics of Russia. Getting the opportunity to openly use Russian investments, build sanatoriums, open branch offices of Russian banks and receive Russian tourists, there is no way for Abkhazia back in Georgia. Whatever benefits it offers, it will always be better to stay with Sochi. Sochi is, perhaps, more luring than the rest of Russia, and Abkhazians will try to make the most of their neighborhood position.
Many Georgian politicians are aware of the fact that Abkhazia is lost for ever. I think even Georgia’s Speaker Nino Burjanadze understood it. The reason for her leave was not the lack of her adherents on the party ballot. This iron lady hardly reacted as opposition went on hunger-strike in her waiting room, or as Mikhail Saakashvili appointed his people to the top posts overriding his companion’s viewpoint. Nino Burjanadze least wishes to be one of the leaders of the country when it is doomed to lose Abkhazia, and share responsibility for the national tragedy with Saakashvili. It hardly need be explained what awaits the government under which the Georgian people will learn that Sukhumi has become a city abroad for them. There will be such an uprising that even the revolution of Roses will seem the lesser of the two evils. In particular, the Kremlin reckons with this scenario, conducting its policy of the gradual integration of Abkhazia.
In his turn, Mikhail Saakashvili pretty well understands what awaits him personally unless he arrives at a turning point now. He will appear a failed politician. He will have nothing to deliver to his people – even the prospect of a NATO admission. With the breakaway Abkhazia, Georgia will never receive the NATO membership action plan, neither in December nor in the near future. As a result Saakashvili can lose his post before his mandate expires. So he has to raise the alarm, phone Putin and Bush, and seek a UN Security Council session. But to say the least, there is not much chance that the international community will somehow influence Moscow.
Olga Allenova, Kommersant special correspondent
All the Article in Russian as of Apr. 23, 2008
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