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Kremlin Sends Message to Ukraine
Tbilisi reacted stormily to Vladimir Putin’s instructions to the Russian government aimed at building ties with Abkhazia and South Ossetia as if they were Russia’s regions. Tbilisi accused Russia of annexation. The West got involved as well, expressing concern over the Kremlin’s decision and backing Georgia’s territorial integrity. However, Moscow is going neither to recognize nor to annex Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Moreover, Vladimir Putin’s notorious instructions were addressed not to Tbilisi only.
The Kremlin never concealed that Russia would alter its relations with the CIS unrecognized republics after the declaration of Kosovo’s independence and its speedy recognition by the West’s leading countries. However, Moscow did not hurry to implement these plans, waiting for the NATO summit in Bucharest to end and to decide upon the issue of Georgia’s and Ukraine’s future membership in the alliance. When the United States eventually pushed through NATO’s obligation to accept Tbilisi and Kiev, Moscow honestly confessed: we’ll do our best to prevent both Georgia and Ukraine from joining NATO. Vladimir Putin’s instructions are aimed at confirming the Kremlin’s determination to prove these words by deeds.
The instructions given to the Russian government actually have other addressees. First, it is Georgia, certainly. Tbilisi is made to face an unpleasant dilemma: either to ‘swallow’ Sukhumi’s and Tskhinvali’s actual re-subordination to Moscow, or to undertake tough measures and exacerbate the situation. Obviously, both will not make Georgia closer to NATO membership, for NATO hardly needs a member with a part of its territory lacking, or in the state of smoldering war with a neighbor.
Putin’s second addressee is Western Europe. To be more precise, those countries that blocked issuing the NATO Membership Action Plan to Georgia and Ukraine already in Bucharest,--under the pretext that the West shouldn’t irritate Russia too much. They will now have a new reason in the dispute with the United States, the country eager to see Kiev and Tbilisi in NATO at any cost. They’ll say: NATO undertook obligation to accept Ukraine and Georgia – and the Kremlin made a move towards exacerbation, so we shouldn’t hurry accepting those states. Especially since it is difficult to apply any response measures to Russia. Even to implement Tbilisi’s old threat to replace Russian peacekeepers in the conflict zones, a decision by the UN Security Council is required, and Russia has veto right there.
Yet, Putin’s chief addressee must be very close to Moscow. It is Ukraine. At the same time with demonstrative crackdown on Tbilisi in the self-proclaimed republics issue, the Kremlin boosts reconciliation with Moldova, which implies Transdniestria’s return to Moldova’s orbit and Chisinau’s waiver of NATO-membership ambitions. That is the message for Kiev. Its meaning is absolutely clear. Waiver of NATO membership plans will solve many difficulties of Ukraine. On the contrary, Kiev’s boosted march towards the alliance might cause new instructions by the Russian president to the government, and they might concern, for instance, the Russian-speaking people of the Crimea or Donbass.
Gennady Sysoev, observer
All the Article in Russian as of Apr. 18, 2008
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