The Central Bank of Russia released yesterday its data on payment balance and foreign debt. The high surplus on trade balance and the amount of current account signal that no transition to ruble depreciation could be expected in 2008 and 2009.
Photo: Ivan Grankin
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CBR Drew Up Balance
The Central Bank of Russia released yesterday its estimate of payment balance and foreign debt. The high surplus on trade balance and the amount of current account signal that no transition to ruble depreciation could be expected in 2008 and 2009. At the same time, the battle against illegal import and cash conversion will probably gain momentum.
The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) released yesterday the adjusted data on payment balance and foreign debt of the country as of January 1, 2007. The current account stood at $78.3 billion past year (vs. $94.4 billion in 2006) and surplus on trade balance was $132 billion (vs. $139.3 billion). Foreign debt widened by $149 billion to $459.6 billion in 2007 and net capital inflow reached $80.7 billion.
The first thing that draws attention is that the surplus on trade balance is still very high with exports significantly surpassing the imports. The reason is skyrocketing prices for Russia’s exports, first of all, for crude oil and metal. The oil price averaged roughly $70/bbl past year and 2008 forecast is around $90/bbl, so the surplus will probably grow again.
Another trend is the drop in the current account. The decline is mostly blamed on the balance of investment revenues, which reflects payment of loan interest and profits repatriation. The de-dollarization of economy continues. Of $80.7-billion net inflow of capital, $15.7 billion is the cash discharge.
One of unpleasant surprises is that the total of non-repaid export revenues and errors/omissions items of the balance stepped up to $44 billion, which is 3.5 fold above 2006 ($12.5 billion), signaling illegal export of capital surged past year.
www.kommersant.com
All the Article in Russian as of Apr. 02, 2008
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