Sberbank headquarters on Vavilova street in Moscow, Russia.
Photo: Pavel Solov
| Other Photos |
 |
|
 |
Salvation in Drawing
The world markets’ crisis could not help affecting Russian banks. They had to pay special attention to drawing the population’s funds, which are the most accessible resource now. Banks use the obtained money mostly for giving credits, and practically ignore the stock market, although it used to be popular with them earlier this year.
In the last quarter of 2007, assets of 200 major Russian banks grew by 1.89 trillion rubles. More than fourth of the growth belongs to Sberbank: its assets grew by 490 billion rubles. VTB assets increased by 375 billion rubles, and the bank became second in the rating according to that index. Gazprombank moved down from the second to the third position, for its assets fell by nearly the same 375 billion rubles.
Among other banks, Rosbank made the largest upsurge, having its assets increased by nearly 50 percent, by over 120 billion rubles, which allowed it to go up from the 10th to the eighth position. Raiffeisenbank’s growth is also notable: its assets went up by one third, a little over 100 billion rubles. So, despite the rotation inside the top ten, same banks have remained there since the third quarter of 2007.
Out of the total 1.89-trillion-ruble growth, over 1 trillion rubles belongs to four banks: Sberbank, VTB, Rosbank, and Raiffeisenbank. However, Gazprombank affected the index, and the growth of assets of the entire top ten of major banks is a little below 1 trillion rubles. Meanwhile, nearly 60 percent of the entire asset growth of 200 major Russian banks is due to the top ten.
After the unsuccessful third quarter of 2007, when the 200 major banks’ asset growth made up a little over 5 percent, the fourth quarter’s modest 12 percent seem to be a quite good achievement. In relative terms, assets grew more just in the first quarter of 2007, by almost 13 percent. Consequently, Russian banks’ assets went up by less than 47 percent in 2007, and failed to reach 18-percent growth in the last semester.
Credits make up over two thirds of Russian banks’ assets. As of the year’s end, their amount has closely approached 12 trillion rubles. The amount of credits provided by 200 major banks grew by nearly 1.27 trillion rubles. The growth’s larger part is owing to the top banks: Sberbank and VTB. In the fourth quarter, Sberbank issued credits amounting to over 500 billion rubles, and VTB – to over 200 billion rubles. The remaining eight banks of the top ten gave away a little less than 300 billion rubles of credits in the fourth quarter. So, the top ten banks provided credits growth of over 1 trillion rubles, out of the total 1.27 trillion. That is, the remaining 190 banks gave away less than 250 billion rubles as credits.
Meanwhile, the changes in the top ten in regard to credits are quite insignificant. Rosbank went up from 11th to 9th position, VTB 24 went up from 13th to 10th position. However, it is not due to the immense growth of the amount of credits they issued: it was 43 billion rubles and 44 billion rubles accordingly. Sberbank and VTB are unrivalled, yet it is not their best achievement either. In the same period, Raiffeisenbank issued 65 billion rubles of credits, and Alfa-Bank—49 billion rubles. Rosbank and VTB 24 managed to enter the top ten because Uralsib’s credit portfolio grew by 6.5 billion rubles only, and Uralsib had been #9 as of the third quarter. Russky Standart was #10, and its credit portfolio went down by nearly 30 billion rubles. However, almost the whole of the sum is due to two asset securitization deals for which Russky Standart sold a part of its credits amounting to $1.15 billion in total.
Credits grew by 12.2 percent in the fourth quarter. The growth was stronger just in the third quarter – by 13.4 percent. It was quite good in the second quarter – by 11.4 percent, and below 8.5 percent in the first quarter. Anyway, credits grew faster than assets, and increased by 54 percent during the year. By the way, the growth of the second semester made up exactly one half of the annual growth – 27 percent.
Consumer credits present a similar picture: the unsuccessful first quarter and the growth of a little over 10 percent in others. Unlike the general credit index, consumer credits mostly grew in the second quarter – by 14.4 percent. Then, the growth slowed down: 13.2 percent in the third quarter, and 11 percent in the fourth quarter. So, the consumer credits growth in the second semester was lower that the general credit growth, -- 26 percent. However, consumer credits’ growth outran that of credits at year end, -- 55.5 percent.
In absolute terms, consumer credits’ indexes are not so impressive. Their total amount, issued by the 200 major banks, reached 2.63 trillion rubles, and quarter growth made up 262 billion rubles. Over the half of it belongs to the top ten of Russian banks. Sberbank provided almost 30 percent of the growth. It lent 79 billion rubles to private customers in the quarter. VTB 24, which is #2 here, issued a twice smaller sum – 39 billion rubles. Raiffeisenbank flew up from 13th to 6th position because it gave away 32 billion rubles in consumer credits in three months, making Alfa-Bank go down from 10th to 11th position. The rest of the top ten stayed unchanged as compared to the third quarter.
Meanwhile, two banks’ credit portfolio decreased. While URSA Bank’s consumer credits’ amount fell by less than 1 billion rubles, Russky Standart’s lost 38 billion rubles. However, Russky Standart lost just one point, moving down from the second to the third position, while URSA Bank fell from the 5th to the 8th position.
Overdue credits should be mentioned separately. Their growth in the 200 major banks was consistently decreasing throughout the year. The breakthrough happened in the year’s last quarter. In the first three quarters of 2007, the amount of overdue credits was growing by around 12-14 percent, that is it corresponded to the growth of credits themselves. Yet, the overdue increased by less than 4 percent in the fourth quarter. Consumer credits present a similar picture, but the spread is even larger in their case. In the first quarter of 2007, overdue grew by over 25 percent, in the second quarter – by 23 percent, in the third quarter – by nearly 20 percent, and in the last quarter – by less than 3.5 percent.
Apparently, it is due to writing off bad credits or selling them to collector agencies, or, perhaps, to a combination of these two measures. Anyway, it is extremely hard to believe that borrowers have suddenly turned conscientious, or that scoring systems have suddenly become more effective. Thus, it is primarily due to bank accounting, and it hardly affects the real state of affairs.
Anyway, crediting is now the main type of banks’ asset transactions. It is proven by the fact that banks’ investing in securities drastically decreased at the same time with credit growth in the second semester. The third quarter was most unsuccessful in this sense: investment in securities reduced by nearly 300 billion rubles in that period. Despite small growth in the fourth quarter, the general result of the second semester turned out negative: banks’ investment in securities reduced by nearly 9 percent in that period. Meanwhile, the first quarter’s investment growth at the stock market reached almost 25 percent, and around 14 percent in the second quarter. So, the 200 major banks showed the annual result of almost 30-percent growth of securities investment. Yet, the situation proved mirror-like for crediting: it sped up significantly by the year’s second half.
Despite the general increase in securities investment by the 200 major banks in the last quarter, even of it was less than 4 percent, the top ten ended up with a negative index – minus 50 billion rubles. VTB (#2 here) had the largest growth – 32 billion rubles. Gazprombank had the deepest fall (over 170 billion rubes), thus giving away its second position to VTB.
Banks undergo most difficulties with asset transactions due to the resource base problems caused by the West’s crisis. Moreover, inner resources ran dry as the West’s money was getting more expensive. So, clearing account surplus grew by 3 percent only in the second semester. The trend is not very promising: companies had a 22-percent clearing account surplus growth in the first quarter, less than 9 percent in the second quarter, just 1.9 percent in the third quarter, and 1.3 percent only in the fourth quarter. Thus, the growth of clearing account surplus in the last quarter made up under 45 billion rubles.
On the whole, the 200 major banks’ obligations in the fourth quarter had their biggest growth in the entire year of 2007, -- 13 percent, which made up over 1.7 trillion rubles. Its considerable part is due to attracting the population’s funds, a strategy of which many banks spoke last year. And the strategy has proved effective, indeed. Increase in citizens’ deposits in the 200 major banks in the fourth quarter made up over 460 billion rubles, which is almost 11 percent more if compared to the third quarter. For the first time in 2007, deposit growth exceeded 10 percent in the fourth quarter. Consequently, the amount of individuals’ deposits grew by 18 percent in the last semester, and by 36 percent in the year. A little less that the half of the 200 major banks’ deposits belongs to Sberbank – 216 billion rubles. Raiffeisenbank was the next to succeed in drawing the population’s funds – 39 billion rubles in the quarter. VTB 24 became #3, lagging far behind the first two banks. It managed to draw by 32.5 billion rubles more.
So, in late 2007, banks were taking money from citizens and giving it back as credits, and there remained enough for crediting companies as well. Thus it is logical that banks are trying by all means to keep up the trend this year, and have already begun raising the deposit rates.
Maxim Builov
All the Article in Russian as of Mar. 24, 2008
|
|
|
