United States Saves the Best for Last
// Georgia will enter NATO later
Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili completed his three-day trip to the United States yesterday. His main purpose there was to receive Washington's support for Tbilisi's plan to begin the procedure for NATO accession at the April summit of the alliance in Bucharest. That goal was only partially realized. U.S. President George W. Bush supported Georgia's desire to join NATO, but did not guarantee that it would receive an invitation in April. As a source in Washington explained, “Bush wants to show support for Georgia without risking a fight with [Russian President Vladimir] Putin.”
The Sweetest Later
The main point in Saakashvili's visit was his meeting with Bush in the Oval Office. Saakashvili flew to Washington from New York, where, according to information obtained by Kommersant, he was trying to convince UN General Secretary Ban Ki-moon of the need for greater UN involvement in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Based on Saakashvili's statement in Washington “The UN doesn't want to solve those problems,” experts have concluded that his meeting with the general secretary did not produce the desired results.
The conversation with Bush was more pleasant. The day before their meeting, a Kommersant source in the U.S. Congress said that :Georgia under Saakashvili can get anything it wants.” That statement received only partial confirmation, however.'
The Georgian delegation was so large that it barely fit in the Oval Office. Bush spent a long time making his way through it, shaking Saakashvili's hand, then the hands of the ministers of defense, foreign affairs and economics, then the prosecutor general, then Saakashvili's aides…
Bush began the conversation with a nostalgic recollection of his visit to Georgia in May 2005 and “the unbelievably good food.” While journalists were present, the leaders also recalled how Bush danced after dinner in old Tbilisi. “You will dance Georgia dance much better than I do,” Saakashvili assured him. He also praised Bush “exporting idealism to the rest of the world.”
The main topic of the meeting was the chances of Georgia joining NATO. That was discussed behind closed doors. Bush announced after the talks that “I believe that NATO benefits with a Georgian membership. I believe Georgia benefits from being a part of NATO. And I told the President it's a message I'll be taking to Bucharest soon.” Here, Saakashvili thanked Bush for his “your unwavering support for our freedom, for our democracy, for our territorial sovereignty, and for protecting Georgia's borders, and for Georgia's NATO aspirations.”
The Georgian leader was a little ahead of himself, however. He did not receive a guarantee from the U.S. that Georgian would receive a NATO Membership Action Plan, as Saakashvili had petitioned alliance leader Jaap de Hoop Scheffer for. Those close to Bush have made it clear that that decision has not been made yet.
Not only do many key allies of the U.S. in Europe oppose beginning the membership procedure for Georgia (and Ukraine) in April, the U.S. itself understands that presenting Georgia with an action plan now would damage relations between Washington and Moscow. It seems that the Bush administration does not want to do that, especially after Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Defense Secretary Robert Gates brought back from Moscow the first real progress in the disagreement over the missile defense system.
Therefore, as an informed source in Washington explained, “Bush wants to show support for Georgia without risking a fight with Putin.” Andrew Kutchins from the influential Center for Strategic and International Studies agreed. “Bush has no desire to provoke Putin right now. But he wants to something sweet for himself to eat later,” the expert said.
Unseen Trading
To soften the blow of the U.S. refusal to guarantee Georgia a NATO action plan, informed sources say, Bush has supported Georgia in its conflict with Moscow. Saakashvili confirmed this for Kommersant, saying “Bush told me that Russia goes after Georgia every time it is mad at the U.S. The U.S. president plans that and other topics with Putin when they meet next time.”
Saakashvili repeated that theme when at a meeting of the think tank the Atlantic Council immediately after his negotiations with Bush. Georgian-Russian relations was the main topic at that meeting. Saakashvili spoke harshly. He reminded the audience that “The expulsion of 500,000 citizens of various ethnicity from Abkhazia 14 years ago was the work of Russian forces,” which is “the most forgotten ethnic cleansing of the 20th century.” He also assured the Americans that he was ready to forget those events to find a joint solution with Russia to the problems that have piled up. But Moscow, according to Saakashvili, would like to legalize the situation as it stands or suggest options that do not suit Georgia.
Among those options, Saakashvili said, was a neutral Georgia, that is, its renouncement of NATO accession, which, the Georgian leader said, “Moscow has repeatedly suggested to Tbilisi in exchange for a solution of the Abkhazian and South Ossetian problems.” Georgia, however, will never agree to that, its president stated, for “compromise is impossible in questions of values and lifestyle.” Nonetheless, Saakashvili concluded more temperately, expressing hope that he will have good relations with Russian President Elect Dmitry Medvedev. “We are nearly the same age and he, just like me, got educated after the Soviet Union collapsed. It's a totally different experience,” Saakashvili said. “I think he will be a good partner.”
“Saakashvili's rhetoric over Moscow leaves no doubt that it is a consequence of his conversation with Bush,” a source close to the U.S. State Department commented.
Waiting for Victory
Although Saakashvili was only partially successful in meeting the goals he set for his U.S. visit, Tbilisi is openly pleased with the results of the trip. “The fact that a superpower, the main player in NATO, supports granting Georgia the status of candidate guarantees that support at the Bucharest summit will be strong,” chairman of the Georgian Parliament Foreign Relations Committee Konstantin Gabashvili told Kommersant. “The U.S. position means a lot in intra-NATO discussions. We knew that before, but the results of the meeting of Bush and Saakashvili exceeded all of our expectations. The Americans, it seems, have already made their decision.”
Gigi Tsereteli, one of the leaders of the ruling United National Movement party of Georgia, agrees. “The question, of course, is not conclusively decided,” he said, “but that support for our program is very important by itself. In Bucharest, everything may end with a serious victory for Georgia.”
The Georgian opposition is resentful of the support Saakashvili received from Bush. While the Georgian president was meeting with him in the White House, several hundred United Opposition supporters held a meeting in front of the U.S. Embassy in Tbilisi and called for the U.S. to “support the Georgian people and not Saakashvili.” Opposition leader Levan Gachechiladze stated that “U.S. support for Saakashvili is pushing Georgians to hate the U.S. and the West.”
The Georgians are not concerned about Russia's reaction to Georgia's integration into NATO (in April or later). “I am convinced that Russia will not recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia under any circumstances, simply because it is not in its interests,” said Georgian State Minister for Reintegration Timur Iakobashvili yesterday.
Dmitry Sidorov, Washington; Vladimir Novikov, Tbilisi; Gennady Sysoev
All the Article in Russian as of Mar. 21, 2008
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