A Special Anniversary Gift for the Alliance
// The price of the question
In the fight to receive NATO membership, Mikheil Saakashvili has received the consolation prize – a warm meeting at the White House with the U.S. president. George W. Bush said the right things and confirmed his support for the idea of Georgia joining the alliance. But when asked if Georgia would receive a NATO Membership Action Plan, it seems the gave a negative answer. The country does not meet the criteria for accession to NATO. It has too many domestic political problems, as least.
But the intrigue is not over yet, since nothing is known about the case of Ukraine, which has been following along with Georgia everywhere in recent years. Most NATO member states, including the United States, have been favorably inclined toward its desire for change the quality of its relationship with the alliance. Preparations for membership began under first Ukrainian president Kravchuk. There is just one problem, of course. Should they take Moscow's position into account? Those in favor of Georgia and Ukraine's membership say they must be decisive, otherwise the Kremlin will practically have veto power. Others, a minority, warn against hastiness and recommend concentrating on more pressing matters – Afghanistan, for example, where NATO is meeting with increasing difficulties and needs Moscow's cooperation, among other things.
Germany has jumped into the thick of it with a public statement opposing a Membership Action Plan for Ukraine this year. France is not making its position public, although it shares Germany's views in principle. Paris is conducting complicated negotiations with the U.S. on the conditions for its return to the alliance. Nicolas Sarkozy cherishes the idea for a Mediterranean Union, which, thanks to Germany, has been cut down to a single, meatless declaration, and Paris is mad at the Germans.
Germany is in a weak position. The allies are criticizing it for its ironclad unwillingness to move its troops from the north of Afghanistan, where they are engaged in “peaceful construction,” to the conflict zone with the Taliban in the south. Even for a heavyweight like Germany, insisting on two unpopular positions in isolation is a burden. All the more so since the new part of NATO is attacking it for its accommodation of the Kremlin.
Judging by the beneficent atmosphere at the Kremlin talks with Condoleezza Rice and Robert Gates, no one is interested in escalating conflict right now, all the more so since a formal declaration of membership action plans at the summit while Putin is in attendance would be a slap in the face to him. The Bush's upcoming visit to Kiev is clearly meant to make up for the lack of movement in Bucharest.
But it is too soon for Moscow to let its guard down. The next NATO summit will be held in April 2009, probably in Germany, and will mark the organization's 60th anniversary. There will be a big temptation to do something memorable for the occasion.
Fedor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of Russian in Global Affairs
All the Article in Russian as of Mar. 21, 2008
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