The United States Stays the Course
// The Secretary of State and Secretary of Defense check out Moscow's foreign policy leanings
The U.S. doesn't lose hope of an agreement with Russia
U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Pentagon chief Robert Gates arrived in Moscow yesterday with several goals in mind. First, they wanted to become closer acquainted with President Elect Dmitry Medvedev. And they made preparations for the meeting between U.S. President George W. Bush and Russian President Vladimir Putin at the NATO summit in Bucharest. Finally, they were seeking a settlement to the U.S.-Russia conflict over the missile defense system – to prevent the next administration from reversing the Bush policy.
The Kremlin Has Two Leaders
Rice and Gates were last in Moscow to talk about the missile defense system last October. Negotiations were a complete failure then. The U.S. officials say Putin made them wait for 40 minutes, which they took as a sign the Kremlin was unwilling to compromise. This time, Rice and Gates agreed with their Russian partners Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov to meet in Washington next time. Then they thought again and decided to come to Moscow again. Gates admitted that was because they understood that an agreement could only be reached with Putin or Medvedev and their was little sense in negotiating two-on-two with the Russian officials in Washington.
After deciding that, the Americans insisted on meeting with Medvedev and Putin separately and in that order – the future president first. Rice was especially waiting to meet Medvedev. She told journalists on the flight to Moscow that she was interested in hearing what he thought about the future of U.S.-Russian relations and that she had heard he wanted to see Russia as a more open country, which she hoped was true. She noted that she has been personally acquainted with him for along time. Clearly, however, she is not as well acquainted with him as she is with Lavrov, with whom she has a direct partner in negotiations while he has been secretary of the Security Council and minister of defense.
A Kommersant source in the State Department said that, in spite of doubts about the pro-Western inclinations of the future Russian president, she seriously intended to test his determination to follow Putin's Munich course.
Missile Defense behind Them
Before his departure, the defense secretary said that he was bringing new proposals to Moscow about the placement of a missile defense system in Europe. His tone was decisive. "At some point the Russians are going to have to decide whether they want to be true partners, which we're offering, or whether this is all just a sham game on their part," Gates said. The essence of the Pentagon chief's proposals was that the U.S. would not complete installation of the facilities in Poland and the Czech Republic until U.S. intelligence received reliable proof that Iran has ballistic missiles capable of reaching Europe. Gates considered that evidence that the U.S. missile defense system was not aimed at Russia and did not present a threat to it.
Lavrov stated on radio station Echo of Moscow last December that the Americans had made proposals of that type in negotiations. Moreover, Washington had promised to allow Russian specialists access to the installations to observe them permanently. The minister said the suggestions met with Moscow's approval, but had yet to be made in writing, and Washington's written proposals significantly differed from what was spoken. But, if Gates is to be believed, Washington is ready to repeat all the suggestions that might have suited Moscow.
Washington's press for talks on the missile defense system is due to the approach of the election season and the administration's preparations to leave the White House. American authorities want to reach any acceptable compromise with the Kremlin and reinforce the agreements already in place to be sure the next administration will not reverse them. The missile defense system after the elections is questionable. Only in the camp of Republican John McCain is there no doubt about the system. Most of his political advisors are in favor of a military strike against Iran and the missile defense system in Europe is seen as a necessary preparation for war. The Democratic candidates have more complex attitudes toward the question, even though it was candidate Hilary Clinton's husband, former president Bill Clinton, who gave the idea its start. Former secretary of state Madeline Albright, Hillary Clinton's main foreign policy advisor, states openly that the missile defense system is ill-conceived and should be reconsidered. Barack Obama's advisors talks about shelving the project completely.
Thus, it is in the interests of the current negotiators to make progress toward agreements with Russia that the next administration will be unable to back out of. In Washington, the idea is circulating that the two outgoing president should sign a symbolic document summing up their accomplishments in eight years of work together. And the White House wants the missile defense system to receive its due attention there.
John Bolton, until recently undersecretary of state and U.S. ambassador to the UN, stated not long ago that the Russians understand very well that the missile defense system presents no threat to Russia, but are using the problem to pressure concessions out of the U.S.
Bucharest Ahead of Them
The meeting in Moscow became especially necessary for both sides after Putin agreed to attend the NATO summit in Bucharest April 2-4. The two presidents had long discussed meeting at the beginning of April, but had not set an exact date. First Putin invited Bush to come to Sochi on April 5, but Bush decided to visit Croatia on that date. Finally the long-awaited meeting was set to take place in Bucharest.
The Polish Gazeta Wyborcha reported that, during recent talks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Putin set the price of his visit to Bucharest as the alliance's not giving Ukraine and Georgia membership action plans, one of the last steps to membership in NATO. After that, the Kremlin stated that there was no trading behind Putin's visit.
Sources close to the U.S. State Department say that the issue of action plans for Ukraine and Georgia has still not been decided. Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, who is now on a visit to the U.S., stated on Sunday that the toughest fight for his country's membership in that organization was going on then. Putin's agreement to go to Bucharest may mean that the U.S. has decided to heed the Russian position. “The countries of the alliance, and not Russia, should decide membership issues,” a high-placed source told Kommersant in Washington. “Nor can Russia pretend to the right to a veto in the process. But Washington cannot ignore that only those countries that are ready should be admitted.”
Meetings between Russian and American officials have been noticeably more frequent in recent days. Last week, Putin and Bush spoke by telephone and, the Russian president revealed, Bush sent him a letter. Before that, Putin had received U.S. Ambassador William Burns, with whom he discussed the details of his upcoming meeting with Bush.
Such intense negotiations a month before the important NATO Bucharest summit cannot but bring results. Judging from Putin's statement yesterday that “final bilateral agreement has been reached on a number of questions,” some of those negotiations were successful.
Rice and Gates continue their negotiations in Moscow today with a different pair, this time, Lavrov and Serdyukov.
Mikhail Zygar, Washington – Moscow
All the Article in Russian as of Mar. 18, 2008
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