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Iranian Elections Bode No Changes
Parliamentary elections will be held in Iran today. Conservatives will take the majority of places in the Majlis – advocates of reform were not allowed to participate. The traditional opposition of conservative and reformer is of secondary importance. The real battle promises a new turn in Iranian politics. Among the conservatives, the old guard is facing mounting pressure from the young radicals.
One Conservative Unveiled
The big scandal as they were preparing for the elections had little to do with politics, but it caused the political situation to heat up. During a police raid on a brothel, Teheran police chief Reza Zarei was arrested. When the police arrived, he was surrounded by six naked women. In Iran, prostitution and using the services of a prostitute (or six) is a very serious crime. Zarei had a spotless reputation until that point and was known as a guardian of the city's morals. Several months ago, he began the Lift Society's Moral Level campaign, which resulted in the detainment of thousands of women for inappropriate dress and the closing of dozens of beauty parlors that gave their clients Western-style hairstyles, Internet clubs and underground music clubs.
Zarei was one of the best known conservatives and he had a promising political future before him. Analysts say his arrest was a sign of the increasingly tense battle within the conservative camp.
Two faces of Islam
The reform-conservative dichotomy formed in the 1990s. The former favor moderate economic and political reforms, without violating Islamic law, and closer ties with the rest of the world. The latter favor the preservation of traditional values, which they understand as refusing any reform at all. Former Iranian president Mohammad Khatami, first elected in 1997, was biggest reformer. The parliament elected during his term was the most liberal, by Iranian standards, that the Islamic Republic has seen.
The tide turned in 2004, when a conservative parliament was elected and then current radical president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was elected in 2005. Then, as now, reform supporters had a hard time. The main obstacle for them was the supervisory council, an a body of Shia theologians and clerics subordinate to Iran's chief spiritual leader Ali Khamenei that has the final say on a candidate's admission to the elections. They check the records on a potential candidate and question his neighbors to determine if he has any unacceptable habits such as drinking, smoking or shaving. No more than 40 percent of potential candidates make it past the council, and most of them are conservative. In addition, the voting age was raised from 15 to 18, since youth were most supportive of reform.
More Conservative than Thou
With the reform movement effectively out of the way, unity has broken down among the conservatives, with the old guard, in power since 1979, facing off against young radicals, most of whom have come through the Army of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution. Tensions are high. At the end of last month, the website Nosazi, with close ties to the Islamic Guard, published an article criticizing Hasan Khomeini, grandson of the Ayatollah Khomeini, father of the Iranian Revolution, and religious leaders, saying that they live in luxury and have forgotten the people. The editor of the website was arrested and the site was closed down.
Observers say that the religious orthodoxy controls the most successful segments of the Iranian economy and the increasing activeness of the youth is an attempt to claim their share of prosperity. The youth also favor a different political course, as seen in the actions of Ahmadinejad, who has steered Iran into deteriorating relations with the world community.
The number of Islamic Guard militants in the new parliament is expected to increase, which may lead to further radicalization of Iranian policies. These elections are a form of vote of confidence for Ahmadinejad. If his supporters form a majority in the new Majlis, the result of the 2009 presidential election can be considered decided, observers say.
The policy of excluding opposition candidates may have long-term consequences in Iran. Sociologists say that Iranian society is tired of the ruling elite and wants changes. Inflation in the country is in excess of 20 percent, and unemployment is a serious problem, reaching 30 percent in some regions. Without a legal outlet for its protests, societal dissatisfaction will sooner or later reach a boiling point.
Grigory Plakhotnikov
All the Article in Russian as of Mar. 14, 2008
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