|
|
 |
Russia Armed with Rebel Republics
// For the NATO summit next month
Russia issues Georgia a tough ultimatum
The gradual recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia is being prepared in Moscow. Last week, the Kremlin took the first step by reversing the decision of the CIS council of heads of state prohibiting economic contacts with Abkhazia on a government level. That plan may be further developed soon.
Kommersant has learned that the administration of Russian President Vladimir Putin received a joint communiquй from the presidents of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in recent days in which they express their concern that Georgia may become a NATO member. The presidents claim that that would threaten the security of the unrecognized republics because Georgia, they say, intends to use the military potential of NATO to regain jurisdiction over Sukhumi and Tskhinvali. A Kommersant source in the Abkhazian government said that the presidents of the unrecognized republics appealed to Putin on the basis of the fact that the majority of the population of Abkhazia and South Ossetia have Russian citizenship, and so they should be able to count on the protection of Russian officials.
Apparently that document is only a safeguard for the Kremlin against NATO action in relation to Georgia. If it becomes known by the beginning of the April NATO summit in Bucharest that Georgia will receive an invitation to join the NATO Membership Action Plan, Moscow will undoubtedly use that document and take other steps toward the recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as subjects of international law.
Last week, Russia officially announced the lifting of economic sanctions against Abkhazia as a Georgian subject and the restoration of economic relations with Sukhumi on a government level. That was the first step in a series of measures in relation to Georgia that the Security Council of the Russian Federation had adopted in December 2007 as countermeasures to the possible recognition of Kosovo. According to information obtained by Kommersant, the next step may be the establishment of Russian diplomatic representation in Abkhazia and the introduction of a political advisor into the command of the mixed peacekeeping forces in South Ossetia.
Sukhumi is not commenting on Russia's intentions. But Russia's renunciation of the restrictions on Abkhazia was characterized there as “opening broad opportunities for Russian-Abkhazian intergovernmental relations.” Abkhazian Foreign Minister Sergey Shamba told Kommersant that Essentially, only the last step is left before Russia recognizes the independence of Abkhazia.”
Russia may not take that last step, however. It is completely obvious that all of the preliminary measure are intended to make Georgia think twice about joining NATO. In essence, Moscow is giving it a tough ultimatum: either territorial integrity or NATO membership. It is also obvious that Moldova was given the same choice and decided to decline NATO membership in exchange for Transdniestria. Georgian officials, however, that the country's NATO membership is not subject to bargaining, all the more since the January referendum showed that the majority of the country's citizens favor NATO membership.
Georgian authorities are certain that they will be received into the NATO Membership Action Plan, which will be the final step toward membership. “In three weeks, the question of giving Georgia the status of a candidate country for accession to NATO will be decided,” Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili announced on television channel Rustavi 2 just days ago. “We are very close to receiving that status. It will mean the beginning of accession to the strongest military-political alliance in the history of humanity.” Saakashvili called Russia's actions in relation to Abkhazia “dangerous” and “a provocation.” He called on Georgian society, including opposition forces, to consolidate to withstand the “serious external threat.”
Officially, Tbilisi has not taken any decisive measures in response to Russia's announcement of renewed economic ties with Abkhazia on the government level. It did not even make the traditional statements about Georgia's withdrawal from the CIS or the replacement of Russian peacekeepers in the conflict zones. Speaker of the Georgian parliament Nino Burjanadze, juts returning from a trip to Brussels, told journalists that Georgia must not make hasty moves before the Bucharest NATO summit. She said Georgian authorities and society have to show restraint, since “someone wants very much to destabilize the situation in Georgia before the summit, where, we hope, the question of our country's entry into a new stage of cooperation with NATO will be decided positively.”
Thus, Russia's expectations that Georgia may decline NATO membership are most likely unjustified. Its ultimatum may have an affect on NATO, however. They understand very well in Brussels that, by making Georgia a candidate for NATO membership, the international community is forcing Russia's hand toward the recognition of the two self-proclaimed republics, and that might have more serious consequences than the recognition of Kosovo. That is why no consensus has been reached among NATO members on the future status of Tbilisi. Last week, NATO General Secretary Jaap de Hoop Scheffer stated that no decision on Georgia had been made yet. He said that the decision could be made before the end of the month.
Olga Allenova
All the Article in Russian as of Mar. 11, 2008
|
|
|
