Analysts from PricewaterhouseCoopers have revised their forecast for developing countries through 2050, first issued in March 2006.
Photo: Vasily Shaposhnikov
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PwC Overestimated Developing Markets
Analysts from PricewaterhouseCoopers have revised their forecast for developing countries through 2050, first issued in March 2006. Prognoses for China and India were most strongly altered and the estimates of their development potential have been significantly lowered. The analysis, the only one of that scope undertaken by a large company, measures the relative weight of national economies. The analysis caused a sensation two years ago when it predicted that the economies of Brazil, Russia, India, China, Mexico, Turkey and Indonesia would outweigh those of the G7 by 50 percent by 2050.
They corrections made this year do not change that prediction. While the 2007 U.S. mortgage crisis hardly left a mark on the forecast, the prediction that the Chinese GDP would grow to 143 percent of that of the United States in purchasing power parity has been lowered to 129 percent, and India's 100 percent growth by the same criteria was lowered to 88 percent. The changes are due to new methods for calculating GDP and new demographic forecasts for China.
In spite of changes in the calculation method, the forecast for Russia remains unchanged. Its economic weight is expected to rise from 8 percent to 17 percent of that of the U.S. The GDP per capita in Russia in 2050 should be $58,300, compared to $93,300 in the U.S., $39,000 in Brazil, $70,000 in Italy and $34,500 in China. The authors of the report note that its main value is in identifying long-term world economic tendencies, rather than predicting the future.
www.kommersant.com
All the Article in Russian as of Mar. 05, 2008
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