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Operation Anti-Successor
// Washington prepares for Medvedev's election
A conference was held at the influential Heritage Foundation in Washington called “The Russian Presidential Transition: From Putin… To Putin.” American experts do not expect any liberalization of the Russian regime from Dmitry Medvedev. In that case, the future administration in Washington will have to choose whether to take tougher stand on the Kremlin or continue the Bush administration's policy of cooperating wit Moscow on individual problems that Washington has an interest in. RIA Novosti commentator Nargiz Asadova has the details in a special report for Kommersant.
Moscow in Washington
As the presidential election approaches in Russia, there is a massive brainstorm going on in Washington about relations with the future Kremlin administration. Trenchant statements on Russia by the major contenders for the Oval Office – Republican John McCain and Democrats Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama – only added to the heat of the discussions at the conference. One of the liveliest exchanges took place yesterday at the right-wing foundation and concerned what to expect from Russia after Dmitry Medvedev becomes president there.
Washington's official view on the events in Russia was expressed by director of the State Department's Office of Russian Affairs Ian Kelly. He said that the State Department is aware that Russia lacks the system of checks and balances necessary for democracy and that the principle of division of powers does not function there. The U.S. foreign policy agency was especially worried about three laws passed by the State Duma in 2006. Those are the law on elections, which raised the electoral barrier to 7 percent; the law on combating extremist activities and the law on noncommercial organizations.
Touching on freedom of speech in Russia, a sensitive issue in bilateral relations, Kelly spoke cautiously. “I was in Russia a few weeks ago, and I was struck by the level of freedom of speech on the Internet and in printed publications. In the House of Books [a large bookstore] on the Arbat, you can find any literature. Even the works of Anna Politkovskaya. But when I returned to my hotel and switched on Channel One at 9:00, there was the [news] program Vremya – the same Vremya I watched in the Soviet Union, but with better graphics,” he recounted.
Continuing his comparison with the USSR, Kelly found positive changes in modern Russia. Russian citizens have full freedom of movement. He said that 18 million Russians traveled abroad last year alone. Beside that, Kelly noted the growth of business activity n Russia. “No Russian politician can fundamentally change the situation and go back,” he said.
“We understand that Russia is an important player in the international arena. We have common views on many questions. And we can accomplish much, if we work together. We prefer to express our concern over individual issues in private. That works best in relation to Russia,” the diplomat concluded.
It is notable that U.S. President expressed a similar view on the next day when he spoke of the importance of constructive relations with Russia and the need for close and confident relations between the leaders of the two countries. He praised Russian President Vladimir Putin for his “straightforward, pretty tough character when it comes to his interests,” and emphasized that they “still have got a cordial enough relationship to be able to deal with common threats and opportunities.” Bush expressed hope that “that's going to be important for the next president to maintain.”
Andrey Illarionov against the Kremlin and the State Department
Kelly's words caused a hot reaction in another participant in the discussion, former economic advisor to the Russian president, currently senior fellow at the Cato Institute Andrey Illarionov. “You speak of freedom of movement in Russia. Ask those who wanted to go from Moscow to St. Petersburg to participate in the March of the Dissenters last autumn. They were arrested on the spot. Ask Garri Kasparov if he could move freely from Moscow to Samara during the Russia-EU summit in May of last year. Unfortunately, we can't ask Anna Politkovskaya about her freedom of speech, nor any of the other 21 journalists who have been killed in Russia in the last eight years. Let's ask Khodorkovsky and Lebedev how their right to private property is being observed. And the American holders of YUKOS stock, who invested $7-8 billion in the company and whose money disappeared without compensation,” he fumed.
Illarionov called the March 2 xxx in Russia not am election, but a special operation to transfer power to Putin's handpicked successor. He said there was hope for positive change in Russia only under the following circumstances. First, the freeing of all 72 of the political prisoners in Russia. (The list of them was drawn up by human rights organizations and can be seen at http://a-center-iin.livejournal.com.) Second, stopping arrests of people for their political convictions, restoration of all civil rights in Russia, including freedom of speech, freedom of assembly and freedom of political activity. Third, annulment of the Duma elections in December 2007 and presidential election in March 2008 for illegitimacy and falsification.
A Call for the New Administration to Be Strict
Further discussion showed that most of the participants shared Illarionov's outlook. Heritage Foundation senior research fellow Ariel Cohen and senior advisor in the European program of the Center for Strategic and International Studies Simon Serfaty gave negative assessments to the political system that has formed in Russia, Serfaty suggested that The U.S. and EU should choose a single policy in regards to Russia on the issues that concern the West most. “We can do it, like we acted on independence for Kosovo,” Serfaty said.
Radio Liberty director of research and analysis Donald Jensen was the most straightforward. “Instead of following the results of the March 2 election in Russia, I suggest that you watch the film The Godfather and pay attention to the hero Michael Corleone,” Jensen told the audience. “Ask yourself if Michael Corleone is a liberal. Is he a patriot? Yes and yes again. But does that matter in an extremely criminalized regime?”
After listing their numerous charges against Russia, the participants in the discussion at the Heritage Foundation agreed that the Bush administration has not paid enough attention to democracy in Russia. Cohen expressed confidence that, after a new administration moves into the White House, Russia's observation of democratic norms will have an important place on its agenda, whether it is the administration of John McCain, Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama.
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U.S. disquieted by Growth of Russian Military Might
U.S. Director of National Intelligence Michael McConnell gave his “Annual Threat Assessment” report at hearings of the Senate Committee on Armed Services on Wednesday. Part of the report was devoted to Russia. McConnell reported that a big event is awaiting Russia in March: the first planned transfer of power since communist times. That “milestone” has been “clouded” by Putin's announcement that he is prepared to become prime minister, which “raises questions about who will be in charge of Russia after Putin's presidential term expires in May,” McConnell said, adding that it creates questions about the future of the country in general. McConnell expects the negative tendencies seen in Russia today, such as weak institutions of civic society, corruption and growing authoritarianism will remain under the new president. McConnell also thought it likely that power would be redistributed between the president and prime minister in favor of the latter.
“We judge the Russian economy will continue to expand under a new leadership, although at a slower rate than over the last eight years,” McConnell noted. Other “elements of Russian national power” are set for an upswing as well. “Aggressive Russian efforts to control, restrict or block the transit of hydrocarbons from the Caspian to the Westand to ensure that East-West energy corridors remain subject to Russian controlunderscore the potential power and influence of Russia's energy policy,” McConnell said.
The U.S. national intelligence director noted about the Russian Army that “The Russian military has begun to reverse a long, deep deterioration in its capabilities that started before the collapse of the Soviet Union,” thanks to budgeting, and today Moscow is making efforts to increase its military power. At the same time, “the military still faces significant challenges” connected mainly with demographic tendencies and health problems. Russia's military is also suffering from a “loss of skilled and
experienced personnel,” according to McConnell.
Grigory Plakhotnikov
Nargiz Asadova
All the Article in Russian as of Feb. 29, 2008
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