Yulia Tymoshenko Blows Off Gas
// Moscow is loyal to its agreements with Viktor Yushchenko
Ukraine’s Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko arrived on her first official visit to Moscow on Wednesday. Her chief goal was to reconsider the gas schemes agreed upon by presidents Vladimir Putin and Viktor Yushchenko last week. However, Tymoshenko’s efforts fell through: her partners in the negotiations said they do not intend to change anything and will adhere to the agreements achieved with Yushchenko. So, the Kremlin has actually staked on the current president in Ukraine’s political struggle.
Not about Gas
When Russia’s Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov and his Ukrainian counterpart Yulia Tymoshenko came out to journalists after their negotiations, it immediately became clear that Tymoshenko had lost in all issues.
“Let me first thank you for a substantive discussion,” Zubkov began reading out the speech prepared in advance. “Our meeting passed in absolutely friendly and positive environment…”
The PM never looked into the audience during the entire speech. He pronounced the word ‘gas’ just once, adding: “We confirmed our mutual adherence to precise fulfillment of our presidents’ agreements in that sphere.” None of what was said during the negotiations changed the pre-written speech.
Tymoshenko was just nodding nervously. She came out to the press conference without a prepared speech, and preferred not to touch upon the gas sphere at all. Yet, she had come to Moscow precisely for reconsidering the gas relations scheme and for recapturing the initiative in gas issues from President Viktor Yushchenko.
Last week, Yushchenko and Vladimir Putin agreed upon a new scheme of gas relations, according to which the current mediators – RosUkrEnergo and Ukrgaz-Energo companies – should be excluded from the bilateral relations and replaced by two new mediators which would be subsidiaries of Gazprom and Naftogaz of Ukraine. Although Tymoshenko publicly called the achieved agreements “the democratic team’s victory”, it was in fact a strong blow against her positions: the president managed to move Tymoshenko aside from the gas talks, thus depriving her of another slogan for the upcoming presidential campaign. Ever since first days after Yushchenko’s visit to Moscow, Ukraine’s Cabinet started a covert struggle against Yushchenko’s gas achievements. Ahead of Tymoshenko’s visit, Ukraine’s First Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Turchinov said that Tymoshenko would have to turn over a new leaf in the gas negotiations in Moscow. “Two weeks ago, the mood after the talks was good, but, unfortunately, there has been signed no agreements yet. We respect our partners, but we demand mutually profitable cooperation. In fact, we will have to start the negotiations all over from the very beginning,” said Turchinov.
Indeed, Gazprom and Naftogaz have so far signed no contracts which would fixate the agreements achieved by the presidents. However, according to some sources, Gazprom prepared a draft agreement with Naftogaz already by last Thursday. The document stipulates signing long-term contracts with Ukraine’s ultimate consumers till 2028, prepayment when buying gas, a possibility that UkrGazEnergo will remain in the mediators’ chain, and creating RosUkrGaz instead of RosUkrEnergo. Gazprom’s chief demands are that Ukraine pay all debts before March 14 and create new organizations before April 1. Otherwise, the Russian monopoly once again threatens to cut off gas supplies since April 7. Naftogaz head Oleg Dubina, subordinate to Tymoshenko, received from Alexei Miller a 17-page treaty, and flied back to Kiev without discussing it.
Gazprom’s draft agreement was edited by Tymoshenko. Kommersant obtained a copy of the agreement’s Ukrainian version. The document has been rid of all demands of Gazprom. There have remained just Naftogaz’ obligations to settle the debt for the gas consumed in 2007 at the price of $130 per 1,000 cubic meters, and at $179.5 in 2008, as well as to create two new joint ventures with parity participation of Russia’s and Ukraine’s gas monopolies. Actually, Russia’s consent to Tymoshenko’s version meant that the negotiations were beginning from a new leaf.
That intention of Tymoshenko has certainly stirred indignation in Yushchenko’s entourage. “It means the Cabinet’s intent to disavow the agreements achieved by Ukraine’s and Russia’s presidents in Moscow. That position is wrong and absolutely unacceptable. The prime minister and other members of the government must act only within the decisions made by the two countries’ leaders,” reads the official statement of Yushchenko’s secretariat, published on Wednesday. Moreover, before Tymoshenko’s flight to Moscow, Yushchenko told her off, demanding not to politicize the Russia-Ukraine gas relations issue, that is not to interfere in them, and accused the Cabinet of sabotage, that is of its reluctance to allocate money for settling the gas debt, on which Yushchenko and Putin had agreed. Unlike the common practice, the president’s press service found it possible to make the wrangle’s content public.
Moscow took Yushchenko’s stand into account. Ahead of the talks, Tymoshenko’s Russian counterpart Zubkov said he was not going to discuss gas affaires with her, because it is not “a matter for prime ministers”. In the evening, Tymoshenko met with Putin in Novo-Ogarevo. The event has eventually proved that Tymoshenko is far from being the chief gas negotiator. Putin just ironically expressed hope that “Russian investors do not find themselves in a situation worse than that of other investors” in Ukraine. Moreover, Putin made it clear he has “no deep differences” with Yushchenko and that “all issues are solvable”.
It was unclear till late on Wednesday, whether Tymoshenko’s meeting with Gazprom head Alexei Miller is still in the agenda. Eventually, their meeting has been planned for today. Gazprom confirmed it is going to take place, but within the Putin-Yushchenko agreements only.
Hard Way to Moscow
Tymoshenko arrived to Moscow despite her severe sore throat. Before the visit, she did not appear in public for a week, and still spoke through her nose yesterday.
Tymoshenko’s current visit to Moscow is her first one in the capacity of Ukraine’s prime minister. Upon becoming the PM in 2006 -- for the first time, Tymoshenko was trying for eight months to organize a visit to Moscow, but in vain. Her coming was prevented by a criminal case initiated by Russia’s Chief Military Prosecutor’s Office. It was closed in autumn 2006, but it was after President Yushchenko dismissed Tymoshenko from premiership.
Having formed its current Cabinet, Tymoshenko once again tried to come to Moscow. Yet, it proved not so simple as well. This time, her opposition to Yushchenko was the chief obstacle. The first attempt at scheduling her visit for January fell through: Yushchenko’s secretariat insisted that the president should be the first to visit the Kremlin. Tymoshenko decided not to disagree, but promised to come to Moscow on February 21.
However, as the appointed day was coming closer, the PM once again received complications. During his visit to Moscow on February 12-13, Yushchenko announced he will take part in the CIS summit on September 22. The president’s secretariat openly declared that Ukraine’s two first persons cannot be present in Moscow at the same time. Moreover, Viktor Baloga, head of the president’s secretariat, addressed an official letter to the PM demanding her to give up the idea to visit Moscow. Yet, Tymoshenko insisted.
The conflict is just a small part of the large-scale confrontation between the PM and the president. The president periodically cancels the PM’s orders, while the latter refuses to carry out presidential decrees. Meanwhile, former orange movement associates openly exchange reproaches and accusations in mass media. Moreover, Kiev’s political elite has been recently spreading rumors that the present-day orange coalition is about to collapse, which will trigger the collapse of Tymoshenko’s Cabinet.
According to Ukrainian press, the Yushchenko-Tymoshenko ill feeling arose due to a recent closed poll, according to which Tymoshenko is the most popular politician, and would have easily won over Yanukovych in the second round if the presidential election had been held now. Meanwhile, the current president would not even reach the second round.
Her rating grew due to the payment of compensations to depositors of former Soviet Sberbank. Thus, she has actually fulfilled her populist campaign promise, buying voters’ support. So, Yushchenko’s team is now in panic, and is trying to work out a new plan for counteracting Tymoshenko’s ambitions for presidency.
First measure is blocking the Tymoshenko government’s attempts to privatize a number of enterprises. If her plans are implemented, she will acquire the means for carrying on her populist politics.
Second measure is moving Tymoshenko aside from the gas relations with Russia. The control over that sphere might become a significant source of profits. Moreover, the one who negotiates on gas has constant access into the Kremlin. That is what Yushchenko’s team is afraid of: what if Tymoshenko establishes good relations with Russia’s authorities and they grant her the support they were earlier giving to Yanukovych? All the more because Tymoshenko can make the statements precisely wanted to be heard by her partners in a conversation. For instance, ahead of coming to Moscow, she said that Ukraine’s accession to NATO is impossible without a referendum on the issue, which means she showed more flexibility than Yushchenko.
However, Russia has so far demonstrated it is easier and more pleasant for it to discuss gas affairs with inexperienced Yushchenko than with Tymoshenko who began her political career with gas.
Besides, Tymoshenko’s meeting with Sberbank head German Gref is scheduled for today. There is intrigue there. Many Ukrainian politicians have often said recently that Russia must pay compensations to Ukraine’s citizens – former depositors of Soviet Sberbank, and not Ukraine’s government, because Russia is the USSR’s heir, while Russia’s Sberbank is USSR Sberbank’s heir. The Our Ukraine – People’s Self-Defense pro-president faction suggested adopting a Supreme Rada enactment on recognizing USSR Sberbank’s obligations to Ukraine’s citizens as Russia’s state debt. However, Russia’s Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said on Wednesday that Russia is not going to pay any compensation to Ukrainians. So, Tymoshenko’s talks with Gref have become pointless without even starting.
In fact, the Russian authorities receive Tymoshenko so coldly to show once again that they are quite satisfied with Yushchenko as a more comfortable partner in Ukraine. So, the Kremlin is not going to help Tymoshenko in her struggle against him.
Mustafa Naiem, Mikhail Zygar, Natalia Grib
All the Article in Russian as of Feb. 21, 2008
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