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Cuba Set Adrift
// El Comandante has resigned all posts in order to become a blogger
The website of Granma, the official organ of the Cuban Communist Party, published a letter yesterday from Fidel Castro, Cuba's eternal leader, in which he announced that he was leaving all his state posts. On Sunday, at the first meeting of the parliament, his brother Raul will be elected. But more important is the makeup of the new cabinet. Cuba's future depends in a large degree on whom Raul picks – elderly technocrat reformers or the younger and more radical politicians known as the “tropical Taliban.”
Political Heritage
Castro's sensational letter appeared on the Granma website in the dead of night, just after the latest issue had been put to bed. That was far from the typical practice of the voice of the Cuban communist party. The site is usual rarely updated in a timely manner. The letter was the latest in the cycle “Thoughts of the Supreme High Commander,” which Castro had been publishing since July 2006, when he announced that he was temporarily stepping down from his state obligations.
His previous letters had been long and verbose. He had essentially converted the site into his own blog, in which he could meditate at length on any topic that came into his head. Usually it was news he got from the Internet or sporting events he watched on television. This time, Fidel was uncharacteristically laconic. At the very beginning of the letter, he writes that it is dedicated to the first session of the new parliament of Cuba, elected last month. It will meet on Sunday and choose the new leadership of the country, the state council, the chairman of which is the head of state. “To my dear compatriots, who gave me the immense honor in recent days of electing me a member of parliament ... I communicate to you that I will not aspire to or accept – I repeat not aspire to or accept – the positions of President of Council of State and Commander in Chief,” he wrote to the parliament.
The letter further contains hints about how the leadership of the Isle of Freedom may change after Castro is no longer even its nominal leader. Castro continues by recalling his previous missives in which he had hinted at his approaching departure. For example, he recalls writing to the popular television host Randy Alonso on December 17 of last year, “My elementary duty is not to cling to my post and even more not to block the way for younger people, but to provide experience and ideas, the modest significance of which comes from the exceptional era in which I chanced to live.” In the conclusion of the letter, he draws a collective portrait of his successors, saying that he can count on the old guard and on the young people who are already well known in the country and around the world. They have successfully fulfilled their international missions and they will make worthy replacements of him. Castro did not mention anyone by name, surprisingly, not even his brother Raul. That does not mean that Raul Castro's position has weakened. He will succeed his brother in all posts. The priority is to fill the second-ranked position. That is, the battle is over who will replace Raul Castro.
From Chief Commander to Comrade
Castro admits that previous statements that his withdrawal from affairs of state was temporary were a tactical move. He hints that he knew he would never again be able fulfill the requirements of the head of state, but he wanted to prepare his compatriots psychologically for his departure, so that it would not come as a shock.
When he withdrew from the daily running of the country two years ago, Castro spread his duties among six close advisors. The first among equals was his brother Raul, but along with him six more figures were appointed to key positions in Cuban politics. Thus he hoped to prevent a political struggle from breaking out. Fidel was used to having his finger on the political pulse, and he intended to keep it their even as he lie in his hospital bed. He clearly overestimated his capabilities, however.
The Cuban leader's illness was much more serious than he had at first thought. In the last year, Cuban government sources had even stopped denying the rumors that Fidel has advanced cancer, with no hope of recovery, and the immense efforts of doctors going simply to manage the pain. Castro has not been seen on Cuban television since April of last year, nor has his picture been published in the press.
Castro's letters give some idea of his current interests and show that he no longer controls the political situation on the island. But they also show that he is still alive and in control of his faculties.
Last week, before writing his resignation, Castro issued a series of communiqués on the presidential elections in the United States. The five letters, published under the common headline of “The Republican Candidate,” were a response to the statement by Sen. John McCain that he was tortured by Cuban military personnel while a prisoner of war in Vietnam. Castro responded with several hundred pages of refutations of that claim, with his usual eloquence. He also writes in that epic that a recession is beginning in the U.S. and the fall of the American empire is imminent. He quotes passages from websites he has read in abundance and concludes that the only candidate he likes has not been nominated this time. He refers to Albert Gore, who caught his attention after he began to pay attention to climate change from his hospital bed. He is a fan of Gore's work on that topic.
In yesterday's letter, Castro states that he will continue to write, but now his letters will be called “Thoughts of Comrade Fidel.”
Chinese vs. the Taliban
As Fidel has been studying the Internet and watching television, a political conflict has broken out among his advisors, it seems. Castro practically even admits it in his letters, which regularly mention an old guard and a group of young politicians.
Paradoxically, in Cuba, it is the old veterans who have a reputation as liberals, or at least moderates. They are considered supporters of economic reform on the Chinese model. They are even called “the Chinese” behind their backs. Carlos Laje, deputy chairman of the State Council and third-ranking figure in the Cuban state after the Castro brothers, is considered the leader of the Chinese. His main base of influence is that he is responsible for the country's electrical power and is a link between Cuban authorities and Cuba's main sponsor, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.
Facing off against the old technocrats are a group of young Cuban communists that Castro has promoted in the last ten years. They were al active in the Communist Youth Union until recently and are considered more radical than their elders. This has earned them the nickname of the “tropical Taliban.” The charismatic leader of the Taliban is Cuban Foreign Minister Felipe Perez Roque, Castro's former head of staff. It is thought that Castro was grooming him as his successor, but did not transfer power to him because of his youth. (Perez Roque is 42.) He is clearly the one whom Castro was talking about when he said that a good replacement for him who be a young person who has accomplished several international missions.
As the Chinese and Taliban have been fighting it out, a third group has also raised it heads. They are the “doctors,” headed by the former and current ministers of health, Jose Ramon Machado Ventura and Jose Ramon Balaguer. In the last two years, they have the closes t Castro, as he lied in the hospital. Also, the development of medicine has always been an important national project in Cuba, and it has become almost comparable to national security since Castro's hospitalization. The doctors are attempting to play the role of mediators.
Cuba's future will be clearer after the weekend, when the parliament elects the new State Council. Raul Castro will remain the head of state, but it is not know whom he will pick for his cabinet and which of his brother's favorites he will hold off at a distance. Advancement of the Taliban may mean that Cuban authorities, who have been rather quiet and moderate in recent years, will join the ranks of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Chavez in their anti-American rhetoric. Raul Castro does not have particularly good personal relations with Perez Roque. That may be to the benefit of the technocrats, and in that case, Cuba will not make any dramatic shifts, at least until after the U.S. presidential election. Democratic candidate Barack Obama made a big impression on Cuban leaders when he said that, if elected, he would come to Cuba and meet with Fidel Castro, that is, if he is still alive.
Mikhail Zygar
All the Article in Russian as of Feb. 20, 2008
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