Agreeing with Whom to Disagree?
// The price of the question
One peculiarity of Ukrainian politics is that its participants have a keen sense for when cold war may turn hot and they know how to give in and compromise. They realize that a forceful confrontation could burn up all the material resources they have built up over the years and which are present on all sides. But when the abyss if no longer in sight, they lose the ability to come to an agreement as well and go back to their death grip. That is what just occurred now.
It is very hard for the external players in this situation, such as Russia, to reach an agreement with the Ukrainian politicians, whose relationships are always in motion like a swing. It is more-or-less clear what coalitions are operating right now, but very hard to guess what will be left of them in a few months. At first sight, it seems that the blockage of the work of the Supreme Rada carried out by the Party of the Regions and Communist Party is connected mostly with ideological factors – the negative attitude those parties have to Ukraine's Atlantic integration. But in reality, it is a regrouping of political powers on a completely pragmatic basis.
Orange President Yushchenko is entering into a situational coalition with Donetsk magnate Rinat Akhmetov, who is one of the key figures in the Party of the Regions. So it is unsurprising that Akhmetov's protege Raisa Bogatyreva, until recently one of the president's most active critics, became the secretary of the National Security and Defense Council. Orange Prime Minister Timoshenko has formed an alliance with another influential Eastern business figure, Akhmetov's competitor Vitaly Gaiduk, whose candidacy for deputy prime minister was supposed to be considered by the Rada.
They are trying to change the leadership in the State Property Fund in the same way, to open the way for Timoshenko's second try at reprivatization. The first attempt failed in 2005, not east of all because of the conflict between Yushchenko and Timoshenko then. Until they see fit to come to an agreement, the Rada will probably remain at a halt.
What is Russia to do in this situation? It is interested in stable relations with its neighbor, which transports its gas. Ukrainian pluralism makes it unclear whether any decision will last until the ink dries on the document and what politico-economic coalition will reap the benefits of an agreement, when (if) one is reached.
Tsar Alexey Mikhailovich tried to solve the same riddles in the 17th century, when he tried to decide which hetmans and candidates for hetman, Russia's Ukrainian partners, it would be logical to back. No optimal answer was found. What is going on now also looks like temporary tactical agreements, and not strategic decisions, which require, at the minimum, internal political certainty.
Alexey Makarkin, vice president, Center for Political Technology
All the Article in Russian as of Feb. 12, 2008
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