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Poland Ready to Give Green Light to Russia-EU Treaty Talks
// Donald Tusk will try to make amends with Vladimir Putin
Poland’s new Prime Minister Donald Tusk is meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Thursday. This visit is supposed to show reconciliation of the two nations after a bitter row that lasted two years. But despite the amicability the two countries won’t back down on key issues. Donald Tusk is not going to give in to Vladimir Putin’s admonitions not to host U.S. missiles while the Russian president is not going to give up his Nord Stream project. The biggest thing where Donald Tusk and Vladimir Putin can reach agreement is the long-awaited decision to lift Poland’s veto on Russia-EU treaty talks.
Unavoidable Missile Defense
Moscow was jubilant several months ago when Poland elected Donald Tusk prime minister to oust nationalist Jaroslaw Kaczynski. The Kremlin expected the new prime minister to drastically change an approach to Russia on key issues. Russia got even more convinced of it after Poland’s new Foreign Minister Radoslav Sikorski visited Moscow. Poland’s new government looked quite reasonable and pragmatic. The country’s foreign minister attentively listened to Russia’s concerns about the proposed deployment of U.S. missiles in Poland and an unavoidable negative impact on the security in the region. But Mr. Sikorski’s visit to Washington showed that Moscow’s expectations were futile. What makes Donald Tusk’s government different from Jaroslaw Kaczynski’s cabinet is complaisance and good manners, but the new people still share Mr. Kaczynski’s intention to host American interceptor missiles. It was clear before Donald Tusk’s visit to Moscow that the new Polish prime minister is ready to discuss with Russian counterparts all of their concerns and listen to their complaints, but it will have no effect on the decision. What is more, Donald Tusk is restricted by Polish laws. The country’s constitution empowers the president with a priority in shaping foreign policies. The presidential position is still occupied by Lech Kaczynski, the Kremlin’s traditional adversary. Spokesman for the Polish Foreign Ministry Piotr Paszkowski told Kommersant one day before Prime Minister’s Tusk visit that the parties will discuss all thorny issues because “there are no taboos in Russian-Polish relations”. He said none of the earlier statements from Russian or Polish officials should be considered hostile and they cannot spoil friendly relations between Moscow and Warsaw.
However, the upcoming discussion may turn into an unpleasant exchange of reproaches, according to Kommersant sources. The talks will surely touch about military and technical cooperation between Russia and Poland. Back in the 1940s, the Soviet Union handed to Poland a license to produce armaments and military hardware, some of which are still used. The Polish Air Force is not going to give up MiG-29 jets but is use them after modernization to match NATO standards. Russia would not mind helping Poland with the project. In 2003, Moscow drew up a draft agreement to ban production of armaments and hardware in Poland under Soviet licenses. The document still has not been signed, and Moscow is getting more active in its demands for Warsaw to stop using the Soviet legacy as Poland is moving closer to NATO. Moscow also suspects that Poland hopes to receive a big boost to its arsenal and military technologies from the United States in return of hosting American missiles.
Unbending Pipeline
Energy policy is likely to become a not very popular subject with either of the parties. Warsaw has long been opposing the Nord Stream project, a brainchild of Vladimir Putin and Germany’s former Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder. Poland’s new Prime Minister Donald Tusk is going to try to convince Vladimir Putin in Moscow that the project is useless and unprofitable. Poland has always been saying that the construction is too expensive. The planned bill for Nord Stream has recently soared from ˆ4 or 5 billion to ˆ12 billion. Poland also refers to unpredictable consequences the construction can have on the environment of the Baltic Sea.
In return Donald Tusk can offer to Vladimir Putin a second branch of the Yamal-Europe pipeline that could run through Belarus and Poland or the old project of the Amber pipeline which can go through Baltic nations and Poland. Poland has recently been busy drafting the latter option with a new name of Baltic Pipe. According to Poland’s Dziennik daily, Amber could cost some ˆ2.4 billion. Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said before the prime minister’s visit that “the Amber pipeline would be cheaper and more profitable for that part of Europe”. “I think there is something to talk about,” he said.
Donald Tusk has recently discussed the project with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and suggested some sort of a Russian-Polish-German consortium.
However, Vladimir Putin’s agreement to give up Nord Stream is impossible as Donald Tusk’s refusal to host American missiles in the country. The two parties have gone too far in the implementation of their plans to make any U-turns possible. The fact that both of them come up with these demands is surprising. Sergey Prikhodko, advisor to the Russian president, said Thursday that the Kremlin were not considering the Poland-sponsored Amber project as a valid alternative to Nord Stream and do not expect a big discussion of it. “Their project is far more expensive than Nord Stream,” he said. “Also, it increases the number of transit counties, which is not advantageous to us as such.”
Unnecessary Veto
An issue that both Vladimir Putin and Donald Tusk may find pleasing is lifting Poland’s veto talks between Russia and the EU. Jaroslaw Kaczynski’s government in late 2006 barred the way for Moscow and Brussels to start talks over a new strategic partnership and cooperation treaty. Russian authorities considered the signing of a new deal very important. The previous agreement between Russia and the EU expired in 2007, and the parties could not seal a new one because of Poland’s intransigence. Warsaw’s main motive to veto the talks was a ban that Russia imposed on Polish food imports.
Since Donald Tusk’s government came to power tensions have started to ease. Last year Moscow scrapped all restrictions from Polish meat imports. Polish Agriculture Minister Marek Sawicki said earlier this week that the issue of Polish vegetable and fruit imports to Russian would be solved within a few days. It looks like Russian sanitary officials are now ready to give up their conviction that Polish food contains too many pesticides.
Obviously, the fruit issue is going to depend on Donald Tusk’s willingness to give the green light to the EU-Russia treaty talks. Moscow hopes that Mr. Tusk will promise Vladimir Putin to put the question of lifting the veto on the agenda of the Council of Europe’s session on February 18. Drafting a new treaty was a matter of principle for Vladimir Putin a year and a half ago, so he will do his best to launch talks before his term in office is over.
Mikhail Zygar
All the Article in Russian as of Feb. 08, 2008
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