Super Tuesday a Tie for Democrats
// Either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton will face John McCain
The Super Tuesday results were made known in the United States yesterday, after intra-party primary elections were held in 24 states simultaneously. Hopes were dashed of finding out the name of the next president ten months ahead of the election. Super Tuesday was a tie for Democrats Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. The Illinois senator won in 13 small states, and the former first lady won in eight states, but they were the biggest and most significant. The Republicans' battle is nearly over, however. The Republican candidate will most likely be John McCain, who stated yesterday that he could consolidate independent voters and overcome any Democrat.
Everything Decided at Party Conventions
Under American custom, the right to nominate a Republican or Democratic presidential candidate belongs to those parties' conventions, which are held a few months before the election. The Republicans will hold theirs in Minneapolis in September, and the Democrats will in Denver in August. However, it is clear far ahead of time who will be chosen by the conventions. During the primaries, which take place in all the states of the Union, voters vote for candidates, but they are really choosing delegates to the party conventions. Then the delegates vote for the candidate their electorate favored.
The states are weighted differently, of course. A large state, like California, for example, sends 441 delegates to the Democratic convention, which has a total of 4049 delegates. The Republican convention is smaller, with 2380 delegates. California sends 173 delegates to the Republican convention. Other states have smaller shares. New York sends 281 and 101 delegates to the Democratic and Republican conventions, respectively. Tiny Delaware sends just 23 and 18.
That is why Super Tuesday is so important. The Democrats decide 1681 delegates and the Republicans 1020.
Best to Have a Few Good Ones
Democratic primaries were held yesterday in 22 states. In order to become the party's official presidential candidate, Clinton or Obama will need a simple majority at the upcoming party convention. That means a minimum of 2025 votes. More than half of those votes are decided on Super Tuesday.
Before the vote, many analysts said that there was a surprise waiting for America. That was a way of predicting a victory for Obama. Clinton was the favorite for a long time, then her lead shortened at the last minute and it seemed that the senator from Illinois would deliver the last blow to the former first lady on Super Tuesday. The unusually high turnout would help. Obama's slogans about the need for change in the country had already brought out record numbers of young people and apolitical voters who usually do not participate in elections.
Obama really was quite successful. He won in 13 of 22 states. The most impressive result was in his home state of Illinois, where he had a 30-percent lead over Clinton. The Southern states of Alabama and Georgia also supported him, naturally, since they have a high percentage of African American voters. He also won in Alaska, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Idaho, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota and Utah. The vote was still too close to call in New Mexico last night. With 92 percent of the vote counted, Obama led 49 percent to 48 percent. But his success should not be overestimated, since his competitor Clinton won in a smaller number of states – eight – but in the largest. In spite of the support from many Hollywood stars for Obama, the former first lady won in California. In addition, she won Massachusetts, in spite of the endorsements of that state's governor and both senators, Ted Kennedy and John Kerry, of Obama. She won in her native state of New York (although only by 15 percent) and in Arkansas, where her husband was governor for ten years. She also took Arizona, Oklahoma, New Jersey, Tennessee and American Samoa – that archipelago in the Pacific Ocean holds primaries like the mainland, although its support is only moral; it has no delegates. Thanks to the support of the large states, Clinton gained at least 582 delegates, by preliminary count, to Obama's 562.
Clinton was satisfied as she waited for the results in New York. “Tonight we are hearing the voices of people across America,” she told her supporters happily. “After seven years of a president who listens only to the special interests, you're ready for a president who brings your voice, your values and your dreams to your White House.”
Carl Rove, the former advisor to U.S. President George W. Bush who now works for the Fox television network, chalked the victory up to Clinton, noting that most of the states Obama triumphed in are pro-Republican, and a Democrat as little chance of carrying them in the presidential election.
Counting earlier primaries, the 60-year-old former first lady has 823 delegates to the 48-year-old African American senator's 731. Thus, they are both far from the 2025 needed. They will fight for the remaining votes in the coming days. Louisiana, Washington and Nebraska will hold their primaries on Saturday. Maine's primaries will be on Sunday and Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia hold theirs next Tuesday.
John McCain Comes Out Ahead
The rules for selecting delegates for the Republican convention are a little different from those of the Democrats. After the primaries, the votes are distributed proportionately among the Democratic contenders who get at least 15 percent of the primary vote. In the Republican Party, the winner takes all. The candidate who takes first place in a state gets al of that state's votes. That rule benefited Arizona Senator John McCain. Even before Super Tuesday, McCain was leading the Republicans, but he won in nine states (out of 21) on February 5. He won in his native Arizona, as well as California, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Missouri, New Jersey, New York and Oklahoma, creating a tremendous gap between him and the following candidate. McCain has 559 delegates at the future convention, while his main opponent, Mitt Romney, has just 265.
The main disagreement between McCain and Romney before Super Tuesday was mutual suspicion of insufficient conservatism. Many hardcore Republicans criticize McCain for being liberal. He believes in giving citizenship to illegal immigrants, for instance. But McCain was able to beat conservative Romney at his own game recently. McCain dug up video tapes from 1992, in which a young Romney spoke unflatteringly of Ronald Reagan. That may be a fateful find for Romney – Republicans now hold Reagan up as an icon of conservatism.
Super Tuesday showed that many conservatives switched allegiance from Romney to former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, who unexpectedly won in the five most religious states of the so-called Bible Belt: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee and West Virginia. Romney was successful only in seven states: his native Massachusetts, Alaska, Colorado, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota and the Mormon-predominate Utah.
Romney looked shaken as he addressed supporters Tuesday evening, saying it is not important who wins, but who can change the party. Sources in his staff are already talking about the possibility of his quitting the race. That may be decided next week. Romney spend a lot of energy and money on the California race, where he came in behind McCain by almost 10 percent. In addition, he was blindsided by Huckabee, who served as a spoiler, taking away votes from Romney and thus helping McCain. A Republican informant opined that McCain needs to choose a conservative, religious running mate for the vice presidency in order to rally the party around him, although the confident Arizona senator most likely does not feel that need acutely. While giving his victory speech after the Tuesday primaries, McCain called himself the leader of the Republican campaign who can beat any Democrat by bringing the independent voters out to support him.
Mikhail Zygar; Dmitry Sidorov, Washington
All the Article in Russian as of Feb. 07, 2008
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