America to Name Odd-Person-Out
// U.S. presidential campaign nears its interim finish
This Tuesday, 24 U.S. states are to hold primary elections of U.S. presidential candidates from the Democratic and the Republican parties. Super Tuesday is the key stage of the 2008 campaign: it will elicit the most likely candidates from both parties to reach the final of the presidential race. While Senator John McCain is the most likely Republican candidate, the Democrats have two candidates with equal chances for nomination -- Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. So, the competition for the Democratic nomination will be extremely tough.
Time to Gather States
The U.S. primaries started after the Christmas holidays in Iowa, and today the presidential race has reached its interim finish. As always, the Democrats and the Republicans will nominate their candidates at the parties’ national conventions (D: August, Denver; R: September, Minneapolis). This Tuesday, both parties vote for the ‘most deserving’ delegates.
Super Tuesday’s key meaning is in the number of party delegates’ votes that will become the chief award for those who win the struggle covering half of the country today. Democrats have at stake 50 percent of the total number of votes of the national convention’s delegates (1687 votes), while Republicans have at stake over 40 percent (1029 votes). The zest of the situation is in the fact that the number of electoral delegates greatly varies from state to state, depending on a state’s size and the number of voters. This complicated math predetermined the campaign efforts of chief characters of the 2008 election. Teams of leading Democratic and Republican candidates had to focus on those states where they could hit the jackpot before the decisive national conventions in Denver and Minneapolis.
Polls on the eve of Super Tuesday showed the Democratic race scenario is very different from the Republican one, at the interim finish stage.
Initially, former New York City Mayor Rudi Giuliani was considered the Republican favorite. Last week, however, he retired from the race, and now it is the run of the three and a clown, as an observer in Washington aptly said. The three competitors for the Republican nomination are Arizona Senator John McCain, Massachusetts Former Governor Mitt Romney, and Arkansas Former Governor Mike Huckabee. Texas Congressman Ron Paul acts as the ‘clown’ who makes the run more cheerful.
However, the polls showed that McCain, who gathered 93 votes (against Romney’s 59, and Huckabee’s 40) at the previous primaries, has all chances to become the only Republican leading candidate after Super Tuesday. Today, not waiting for the formal nomination at the party convention, it might become clear who is to win the Republican nomination for the upcoming November 4 election.
Meanwhile, the Democratic race has turned into a fight of heavyweight players, after North Carolina Former Senator John Edwards (number three) has left it recently. The remaining runners have very different political backgrounds, views and support groups, but are more or less equal in force. New York Senator and wife of U.S. ex-president Hillary Clinton is juxtaposed to African-American Senator from Illinois Barack Obama. Big politics’ recent new-comer, Obama made a tremendous dash and managed to secure the backing from a considerable part of the powerful U.S. political and business elite.
New Democratic Bifurcation
Ahead of Super Tuesday, observers in Washington agreed that the struggle for the Democratic nomination in the 2008 campaign is growing nearly the toughest and the least predictable one in the entire history of U.S. presidential elections. Clinton, who was far ahead by early 2008, nearly twice ahead of her chief rival, according to nation-wide polls, has now lost her advantage, letting Obama practically equal her. Thus, Clinton was ahead of Obama by 15 percent just a week ago, while the distance reduced to 7 percent by Super Tuesday (according to the last poll by Gallup Poll, Clinton has 48 percent of support, while Obama has 41 percent).
Outlining the general trend in the Democratic race, the observers no longer hurried to prefer former favorite Clinton. Moreover, some of them speculated that Super Tuesday might become a great day for Obama, who has been running faster so far, if the trend persists. One of the most disturbing news for Clinton’s campaign headquarters was the data of recent polls in California, where Obama suddenly dashed forward (before the voting, Obama had 46 percent of support, while Clinton had 40 percent). Meanwhile, California is one of the key states for U.S. primaries (370 votes of electoral delegates). According to polls, Obama is also leading in Missouri and Georgia, while Clinton is ahead in New York and New Jersey. In most other states, polls show equality or slight advantage of one or another within the margin of error.
Obama owes his new dash to his victory in the debates in Los Angeles last week, during which Clinton failed to clearly explain the motives of her voting in the Congress for the war in Iraq, and failed to specify what part her husband and ex-president Bill Clinton plays in her campaign. Besides, Obama has won one more image victory recently: three members of the powerful political dynasty, the Kennedy dynasty, joined his support group, late president John Kennedy’s daughter among them. The Kennedy family preferred an alternative to the first U.S. female president prospect: they chose the possible coming of the first African-American president to the White House.
Ahead of Super Tuesday, Clinton tried resorting to her chief argument that she has undeniable advantage over Obama – her vast political experience and ability to withstand against Republicans – crucially important qualities for the future U.S. president. “I underwent Republicans’ attacks over and over again, and I think I showed, to their horror, that I can not only survive, but also prosper,” said Clinton on Sunday in This Week program on ABC television.
In his turn, Obama stressed that regardless of her political experience, Clinton is a politician who splits and not unites America. “I believe I will win the votes which Senator Clinton will not obtain,” said Obama in Face The Nation program on CBS channel. Moreover, he added that only he can “expand the political map” of America.
In the situation when the Democratic camp has actually split in halves, observers think the intrigue of the Democratic nomination struggle might remain till the party convention scheduled for August 25-28 in Denver, Colorado. It promises to become one of the tensest events in the entire history of the Democratic party.
New Republican Consolidation
The split in the Democratic camp might play into the hands of their opponents, the Republican party. Unsuccessful ruling of the current president, Republican George Bush, forced the voter support pendulum swing towards a Democrat as the potential next president.
However, John McCain’s unexpected early leadership in the Republican nomination race, against the backdrop of whirling in the Democratic camp, might give him a certain chance at the November 4 presidential election. After McCain’s victory in today’s primaries, the Republicans will have enough time to try to unite their party around the 71-year-old Senator from Arizona. McCain has already said he is ready to become the national leader able to stand above the in-party preferences of both camps. By the way, McCain’s nearest competitor Mitt Romney once again accused McCain of “liberalism” ahead of Super Tuesday. Such accusations might involuntarily contribute to raising McCain’s image for some Democrats.
Moreover, McCain’s chances will grow if Obama gets nominated by the Democrats. In that situation, the Republican candidate will involuntarily get the votes of those Democratic supporters who do not want an African-American as president.
So, it is too early yet to say the epoch of a new Democratic president of the U.S. is inevitable, be it first woman or first African-American in the White House.
Dmitry Sidorov, Washington; Sergei Strokan
All the Article in Russian as of Feb. 05, 2008
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