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Liquidity Crisis Falls Due in 2008
World Bank has recently released its Global Economy Prospects 2008 outlook dedicated to the pace of global economy in the nearest two years. The first official survey of the bank’s analysts made out in view of impact of 2007 events, mostly the mortgage crisis, on the macroeconomic parameters forecasts that the aftereffects for developed and emerging economies will differ materially.
The growth in GDP will slow down in the G8 and OECD states in 2008 but the effect will wear itself out by 2009 and acceleration will reach the pre-crisis level.
But the slowdown won’t end in 2008 in emerging economies, including Russia but excluding Mexico and South Asia. China’s GDP is predicted to step up only 10.8 percent in 2008 and 10.5 percent in 2009, while the 2007 growth has been preliminary estimated at 11.3 percent.
Similar to quite a number of states, a certain decline in the GDP growth had been planned in Russia even prior to the summer of 2007. So, the scheduled drop blamed on the natural slowdown after the boom has overlapped with post-crisis effects.
Therefore, the World Bank forecast manifests that its analysts regard the adjustment capacity of developed nations higher than the one showed by emerging economies. There, the quality of control both in private and government’s sectors apparently suffices to make up for the relatively low rates of the GDP advance.
www.kommersant.com
All the Article in Russian as of Jan. 14, 2008
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