Russian President Vladimir Putin was prime minister in 1999 (in photo) and now his career path has taken him full circle.
Photo: Dmitry Dukhanin
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The President Shows His Prime Behavior
Russian President Vladimir Putin met with the leaders of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry yesterday. Kommersant special correspondent Andrey Kolesnikov thinks the president was acting like a prime minister at the meeting. He explains why.
“How young you all are!” Chamber of Commerce member Shamil Ageev exclaimed looking at his colleagues. “Straight out of the Komsomol.”
His colleagues, the youngest of whom was well over 50, looked at the table. When everyone was assembled, the youngest among them was clearly presidential aide Igor Shuvalov. The president was still in the next room accepting credentials from new ambassadors. First Deputy Prime Minister made an announcement that, if he is nominated for president of Russia, he will ask Putin to become prime minister.
That news sunk into the journalists' minds as they waited for the president. Their conversation revolved around what tone the president would take in his refusal of the office, and what position the Chamber of Commerce would nominate Deputy Prime Minister Sergey Ivanov for today. Would he be another presidential candidate? Prime Minister? He was due to arrive any minute. I had already heard a rumor that Ivanov did not want to be prime minister.
And then I realized whose ambitions would be served by a premiership. And everything fell into place. That is Putin's place. Without any redivision of authorities. He will work as prime minister and that's all that's needed. When he chose a successor, he chose his boss. And he will work in the position where he could not find anyone who satisfied him to work in. That is why, as he said, the Duma elections were a vote of confidence for him. It's the surprise we've all been waiting for, except no one thought he could do it without rewriting the Constitution to make Russia a parliamentary republic.
He will become prime minister to convince himself that, after so many years as president, there is more of the human left in him than people think, maybe than he thinks too.
When the meeting with the Chamber of Commerce members began, I was thinking that before me sat not the president, but the future prime minister, and his words took on greater interest.
Putin had the text of his opening speech in front of him and he rarely strayed from it. He spoke about how those who generate new ides in science should be paid like never before.” And the Chamber of Commerce should help reduce unproductive competition. The text was written for a president, not for a prime minister, and Putin was not interested as he read it.
The head of the Chamber of Commerce Evgeny Primakov spoke. He considered the “course Russia took under President Putin” to be “optimal.” He continued, “That doesn't means we don't see tactical shortcomings. But we will defend that course in the strategic plan.” He also said that the GDP should be doubled, even though it seems that the “government economic bloc” intends to concentrate on other things.
Primakov hailed “the end of the young liberals' dilemma – that the market will decide everything and the state should not interfere in anything.” He did not explain what the dilemma was.
The state, Primakov thought, has turned toward realistic economics with state control of the macroeconomics. He emphasized the importance of “state holding companies” working effectively, “because if they work badly, they won't vote in their favor, and that should not be.”
He returned to the young liberals (calling them that with a pitying tone of voice). “They assumed that competition would lead to increasing investment in R&D. But that didn't happen.”
Primakov reminded the president that he recommended a year ago that import duties on hi-tech equipment not made in Russia be cancelled. Now, he said, it is time to cancel VAT on it as well.
“The litmus test of your course is where the money from raw materials sales is spent. Until a certain moment, everything went into a pot. Then there were changes, the stabilization fund was divided into the reserve fund and the development fund. Now I want to ask, isn't there too much money in the reserve fund?”
And then back to the young liberals. He obviously had taken all he intended to form them and wanted his revenge served warm. He spoke with alarm of two dangers still threatening the country. “They are young liberals coalescing with the oligarchs and parts of the government apparatus coalescing with business. They want to build an administrative-market society!”
With that he closed and Putin responded. He was writing his response in pencil in a notebook as Primakov spoke. That was the speech of the future prime minister, a speech that we would have heard in a year and a half, if Putin werent in such a hurry now.
He considers the slackening GDP an unavoidable evil “before the debates in the State Duma. It is a well-known trick. That way they can't be accused of excessive optimism.”
“I agree,” he said, “that the state should focus more attention on the sector of the real economic, but we will refrain from intervening in it directly. We should concentrate on creating infrastructure – the development bank, special economic zones… that is the direction we will move in.”
I would not say that the members of the Chamber of Commerce listened particularly attentively, least of all Primakov, who apparently considered the topic closed after his speech.
“The same with taxes,” Putin said. “I know that you know that the government took steps to correct tax policy to create better conditions for the real sector of the economy to work in at the expense of the oil industry. Sergey Mikhailovich [Bogdanchikov, president of Rosneft] won't let us lie about it…”
Bogdanchikov theatrically and gave a weary smile.
Looking at him, Putin added, “But we should not kill the goose that lays the golden eggs.”
The president said what the thought about canceling VAT on hi-tech. “That's all fine,” he conceded. “But be careful. If you cancel the VAT, we will never begin producing that equipment here.”
He said what he thought about state holdings, sounding as though he plans to work closely on them. “I think we were right to concentrate our resources on certain area of activity – aviation construction, ship building… But we have to fine tune that activity as well. We do not intend to keep those state corporations in that form forever. Sooner or later, they will be working on transparent market conditions that the average citizen can understand… But today certain spheres of activity simply cannot be restored without state involvement.”
At that moment, Putin looked like the same young liberal that the Chamber of Commerce head had just heap wrath upon, the same young liberal he was when he came to the Kremlin eight years ago.
“We do not intend to create state capitalism,” he said. “That is not our way.”
He explained why money would continue to collect in the reserve fund. “Part of the resources we really are putting away for a rainy day. In spite of any oil price dynamics, we cannot let the public be robbed if those dynamics suddenly change. We cannot lower people's pensions and salaries. It is better to have reserves.”
And with that the head of state concluded the head of government's speech.
Andrey Kolesnikov
All the Article in Russian as of Dec. 12, 2007
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