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Economic Development Ministry Forecasts the Rising Trend
Russia’s Economic Development Ministry has upgraded the industrial growth outlook for 2008 through 2010, the ministry’s chief Elvira Nabiullina reported to president yesterday. The industry is forecasted to accelerate on engineering and chemistry. The analysts don’t contest the outlook, specifying, however, that the growth in manufacturers’ prices could hinder its implementation.
Economic Development Minister Elvira Nabiullina presented to President Vladimir Putin yesterday the revised macroeconomic outlook for 2008 through 2010, which had been submitted to the government past week.
The outlook “has the rising dynamics,” the minister reported to begin with. Indeed, compared with September edition, the forecast for GDP growth went up from 6.4 percent to 6.6 percent for 2008, from 6 percent to 6.3 percent for 2009 and from 6.3 percent to 6.4 percent for 2010.
“The figures reflect positive dynamics manifested in 2007 and root in more optimistic appraisal of foreign economic conditions,” the minister explained. The outlook is based on higher Urals prices, which are forecasted to reach $60/bbl by late 2010.
This year’s growth in GDP is estimated at 7.3 percent to 7.4 percent. The GDP stepped up 7.8 percent on year in January to September, according to official statistics promulgated yesterday. The amount was 23 trillion rubles if taken in nominal value.
The outlook for industrial growth was improved as well, Nabiullina pointed out. The forecast went up from 5.2 percent to 5.7 percent for 2008, from 4.9 percent to 5.5 percent for 2009 and from 5.2 percent to 5.6 percent for 2010. “We have evaluated efficiency generated by investment growth from 2005 to 2007. This growth contributes to the growth in industry’s competitive ability and creates potential for import replacement in 2009 to 2011,” the minister said, emphasizing positive forecast for engineering and chemical industries. The engineering, for instance, is expected to step up 13 percent in 2008 vs. the previous forecast of 8.2 percent and soar 11.8 percent vs. 7 percent in 2009 and 13 percent vs. 6.7 percent in 2010.
www.kommersant.com
All the Article in Russian as of Dec. 11, 2007
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