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Time Games
// Viktor Yushchenko is trying to cut PM’s powers before Yulia Timoshenko is appointed
Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko on Thursday nominated Yulia Timoshenko for prime minister. The only thing that can hinder her endorsement is Mr. Yushchenko’s fear that Ms. Timoshenko may strip him of power as she heads the government. That is why the president wants the parliament to pass a new law to cut the government’s powers before voting for the premier.
Baloga vs Timoshenko
The Supreme Rada’s new Speaker Arseny Yatsenyuk opened the Thursday session with an announcement that he had sent the prime minister nomination of Yulia Timoshenkoto President Viktor Yushchenko. An hour later the president’s office said that Viktor Yushchenko officially nominated Yulia Timoshenko. But the voting did not happen on Thursday.
Leaders of the Orange coalition, Yulia Timoshenko, Yury Lutsenko, Vyacheslav Kirilenko and Alexander Turchinov spent almost the whole day asking Viktor Yushchenko not to be afraid. They were trying to convince him that Yulia Timoshenko should be endorsed as soon as possible, and preferably on Friday. But Viktor Yushchenko was unsure.
The president told his allies about his doubts on Wednesday. He said that the first thing that the Rada needs to do is pass a package of cornerstone legislation which underlie the coalition agreement. The prime minister could be elected later when all the laws are adopted, he said. The head of the president’s office, Viktor Baloga, came up with similar initiatives on Thursday.
Mr. Baloga, who is reputed to be Viktor Yushchenko’s power broker, came up with the idea to put off the vote on the prime minister but hurry with passing new laws. One of the bills endorsed by the coalition is of particular importance. The law on the government cuts powers of the government and prime minister. Viktor Yushchenko and Viktor Baloga want to scrap the existing law and put a new one in place so that Yulia Timoshenko at the helm of the government would be not as uncontrollable as Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich in the last twelve months.
Apart from the government Mr. Yushchenko is pushing laws that would strip MPs of benefits and immunity but would introduce an imperative mandate meaning that a deputy will lose his mandate if he leaves his faction.
The head of the president’s office Viktor Baloga has never been a great fan of Yulia Timoshenko. He has recently been pushing for creating a “broad coalition” with the Party of Regions. After President Yushchenko finally decided to create a coalition with Yulia Timoshenko, Viktor Baloga devised a plan to play her influence down. The Yulia Timoshenko Bloc (YuTB) leader would become prime minister only after a law on the government is adopted. She would take up the long-awaited position but lose a large part of the powers. But as Taras Chornovil, MP from the Party of Regions, said jokingly, if the coalition wants to pass all the laws and then pick up the prime minister, Ukraine will be waiting for the head of the government till March since each of the bills needs to pass the first, second and third readings.
Kommersant sources report that Yulia Timoshenko assured the president on Thursday that he could trust he, and she would make sure the law is passed. But neither of the parties can be sure that the other one is not cheating. Yulia Timoshenko spent the past week suspecting that not all members of pro-presidential bloc Our Ukraine-People’s Self-Defense would vote for her. Even the absence of two MPs of the coalition would be enough for her to fail. Just in case, Ms. Timoshenko is now in talks with businessman Konstantin Grigorishin who is believed to be bankrolling the Communist Party. She is thus trying to secure some Communist vote in case some of the Orange lets her down.
Coalition vs Opposition
Viktor Yanukovich and his allies, formerly known as an anti-crisis coalition, are still campaigning even though the major battle is now between Yulia Timoshenko and Viktor Baloga’s camps. MP from the Party of Regions Mikhail Chechetov said that factions of his party, the Communist party and the Litvin Bloc signed a deal to set up the so-called people’s opposition. They will be opposing Yulia Timoshenko’s nomination as well as any initiatives of the Orange coalition. But Vladimir Litvin has not confirmed this report.
Battle against the Orange, however, does not prevent all of these factions from negotiations with the YuTB and Our Ukraine-People’s Self-Defense. The talks focus on candidates for two deputy speakers of Parliament. According to regulations, they are to be elected before the prime minister is endorsed. One of the posts is likely to go to the YuTB’s Nikolay Tomenko. As for the position of the first deputy speaker, Yulia Timoshenko offered it to Communist Adam Martynyuk. The Communist Party first agreed to support Arseny Yatsentyuk and Yulia Timoshenko for speaker and prime minister but backed down under the pressure of the Party of Regions. Now the main candidate for first deputy speaker is Raisa Bogatyreva from the Regions Party and Vladimir Litvin from his own faction. But Mr. Litvin’s chances are not high. His faction is the smallest in the parliament but he thinks he has got a golden stake. He said on Thursday he would agree to vote for Yulia Timoshenko only if “they take our program to implement iy to the full”.
President vs Prime Minister
If the Orange coalition secures support from one opposition faction for Yulia Timoshenko in return for the seat of deputy speaker, the prime minister can be endorsed on Friday. But the vote is more likely to be held on Tuesday as the Rada is to consider the prime minister nomination within five days, according to Ukrainian law.
Yury Lutsenko made a prediction on Thursday that Yulia Timoshenko would be endorsed without any problems as at least 227 out of 228 MPs from the coalition would give their votes in her favor. The one person he meant is Ivan Plyushch who refused to sign the coalition deal with the YuTB and even didn’t come to a recent Parliament session. It turned out later that he went to Donetsk to watch a match of Shakhtar FC with Viktor Yanukovich and Rinat Akhmetov. “Well, Ivan Stepanovich [Plyushch] may want to go to watch football, hockey or even go and play gorodki – that’s up to him. He’s not an ordinary MP. All others are going to vote,” Yury Lutsenko told Yulia Timoshenko.
But even if all agreements between Yulia Timoshenko and Viktor Yushchenko’s camps are fulfilled and she will become a prime minister with truncated powers, tensions will not wane. Viktor Yushchenko’s allies are afraid that Yulia Timoshenko will run for presidency in 2009, and as Mr. Yushchenko’s entourage are campaigning the government bill they are also pushing her to consider presidency. Therefore, the approval of Yulia Timoshenko, which is nearly a foregone conclusion, will not put an end to the long-standing battle but will open its new stage which will be more evident as 2009 is approaching.
Mikhail Zygar
All the Article in Russian as of Dec. 07, 2007
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