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More Carrots from Russia to Iran
// Russia is trying to shield Iran from UN sanctions
Iran’s newly-appointed top nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili came to Moscow Monday night for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Russian leader is going to persuade the Iranian Secretary of Supreme Security Council to at least pretend that his country is ready to meet the international community halfway. The UN Security Council may come forward with a new resolution this week with another series of sanctions against Tehran. Moscow is going to try to block them but it will not succeed in these efforts if Iran's stance is still unbending
Saeed Jalili is visiting Moscow for the first time in this capacity after he took over from Ali Larijani as Iran’s top nuclear negotiator. Mr. Jalili is reputed to be one of the closest allies of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. He is also bring with hime a personal message from the Iranian president to his Russian counterpart Vladimir Puti.
The West has viewed Saeed Jalili’s appointment as a sign for the toughening of Iran’s policies. His predecessor Ali Larijani was known for distancing himself from the most notorious statements of Mr. Ahmadinejad while Saeed Jalili has always been a follower of the president’s hard-line policies. Mr. Jalili has previously been known for his service in the Guards of the Islamic Revolution. He also defended a thesis in political science on “The Paradigm of the Political Thought of Islam in the Sacred Quran” and wrote a book “Foreign Policies of The Islam Prophet”.
Prior to the Moscow visit Saeed Jalili held talks with the EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana. The two men left negotiations 5 hours later with completely different positions. Javier Solana said he was disappointed with the results of the meeting. The Iranian negotiator, however, played down these remarks saying that the talks were fruitful, and the parties would continue discussing the Iranian nuclear program in December. Once again Mr. Jalili stressed Iran’s right for uranium enrichment saying that these works cannot be stopped. He added that Iran would not give up its nuclear research whatever sanctions the UN Security Council chooses to impose.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely to come up with the same agenda for Moscow talks. Russia is playing a traditional role of Iran’s defender against the West but it is becoming increasingly difficult for Moscow to shield Tehran which refuses to compromise. Moscow in its turn is going to try to persuade Tehran that even a little backdown from its position will be considered a positive sign by the international community and will help Russia defending Iran’s right for its nuclear program more effectively.
Mutual Benefits
The Kremlin believes that at least a temporary halt of uranium enrichment would be the best option for Iranian leadership. To make the option even more convincing the Russian president may offer Iran a few arguments. The bilateral dialogue between Moscow and Tehran rests on the construction of a nuclear plant in Bushehr. The Russian leader may pledge Russia’s commitment to prepare the station for operation. The plant’s commissioning is being postponed all the time, and it is now slated for the fourth quarter of 2008.
Russia has recently allowed experts from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to Novosibirsk Plant Chemical Concentrates which is the storage site for nuclear fuel for the first block of the Bushehr nuclear power station. As soon as inspectors seal the barrels with the fuel it will be ready to be shipped to Iran. But according to unofficial Iranian sources, Moscow says that it will ship the fuel as soon as it secures written guarantees from Tehran that the fuel will be used for the Bushehr plant only and will be under the IAEA’s guarantees until it is taken out of the reactor and returned to Russia.
Iranian media reported that the country’s Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki is going to come to Moscow with an official visit right after IAEA inspectors finish their work in Iran. Mr. Mottaki’s visit has been put off to wait until IAEA inspectors leave the plant in Novosibirsk. The Iranian Foreign Ministry is planning to send Mr. Mottaki to Moscow late next week. It would be logical if the Iranian foreign policy chief brought to Moscow written guarantees that Russian leadership is seeking. In this case, nuclear fuel could finally be dispatched from Russia to Iran.
The Iranian minister’s visit has to be timed to a session of the intergovernmental Russian-Iranian trade and economic cooperation commission where Russia is represented by the head of the Federal Atomic Energy Agency Sergey Kirienko. Tehran hopes that the session will sign several agreements on trade, economic, industrial and technical cooperation as well as business contracts. Apparently, these deals are going to become the carrot to make Iranian leadership more willing to compromise with the West and stop putting Moscow in a vulnerable position. Another carrot that Tehran expects is likely to come with a session of the intergovernmental commission on military and technical cooperation to be held in the Iranian capital late December. Vladimir Putin and Saeed Jalili are going to discuss the agenda for the meeting. The Russian president may promise Iran to increase the supply of modern Russian armaments.
The Time Has Come
Talks between Vladimir Putin and Saeed Jalili were the first in a series of Russian-Iranian meetings this month. Iran is facing another deadline by the UN Security Council in December to stop uranium enrichment. As Tehran is not going to comply with this request, the Security Council will have to pass another resolution with harsher sanctions on Iran. Two drafts on the Iranian nuclear program have been drawn up by the EU and the IAEA saying that Iran is shunning cooperation with the international community.
The United States demands the sanctions to be as strong as possible while other interested parties have not come with the final position. Russia and China will be satisfied only with a resolution that will not impede their economic and military and technical cooperation with Iran. Until the final stance is worked out Moscow and Beijing prefer not to discuss the Iranian issue with their Western partners. Russian envoy Sergey Kislyak did not come to the latest session of deputy foreign ministers of the Iranian Six (UN Security Council members and Germany) to Paris on Saturday citing problems with a flight from Canada. The Chinese delegation did not come to the previous summit. None of the Chinese officials came also citing transport problems.
However, Russian diplomats will not be able to continue avoiding further serious talks as well as condemnation of Iran. Moscow is going to have to decide by Tuesday’s meeting with the Iranian official whether it is worth shielding Iran and keeping a row with the West going and what benefits this line could bring.
Mikhail Zygar
All the Article in Russian as of Dec. 04, 2007
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