Moscow's Back on Middle East Arena
// while Washington is not very successful there
One would think Lebanon’s presidential election is a small issue for Russia’s policy on the Middle East. However, Lebanon is a microcosm of the entire Middle East. It is its wind-blown crossroads, its plexus. There is the international tribunal investigating a ‘Syrian trace’ in the assassination of Rafiq Hariri – former prime minister and father of the Kremlin’s current guest; there is Iran-backed Lebanese Hezbollah that triggered war against Israel, and much more.
A multitude of Middle East issues fell into the focus of big politics: the Palestine-Israel settlement, Syria (in three directions: Israeli, Iraqi, and Lebanese), Iran, and Iraq. Foreign policy of the current ‘multipolar center’ – the U.S. – is stuck in all those issues. Since there is no hope for a considerable improvement in Iraq, the George Bush administration is looking for at least symbolic success somewhere in the Middle East, so as to somehow compensate the Iraqi failure, in the pre-election year.
The times when Moscow provided an equal counterbalance to Washington in the Middle East are over. The Kremlin could not gain victory over the U.S. and its Mid-East allies back then. Yet, Moscow was powerful enough to block Americans in most key directions there. Nowadays, there is neither the U.S.-Russia global opposition, nor unbridgeable ideological barriers. Geopolitical competition between Russians and Americans in the Middle East goes on, but there is much more common ground in their strategic interests now. Regardless of whether it concerns Iran, the Palestinian knot or counteracting Islamic extremism and terrorism. Moscow has little resources, friends and allies left in the region. Yet, when Americans need success so much, but are not very successful, even those scarce resources come in handy.
‘Moscow’s carrot’ might prove more effective than ‘American stick’ in putting pressure on Tehran. Apparently, Washington is about to realize it. With Russia’s support, Palestinians would feel more confident at the Middle East conference in Annapolis. Tough pressure on Damascus did not bring worthy dividends to Americans, while Moscow’s go-between efforts (for instance, creating incentives for Syria to return to the negotiations table with Israel) might be useful for the Israeli and the Iraqi directions of global politics. By the way, for the Lebanese direction as well.
Moscow is coming back to the Middle East owing to Washington’s weakness. However, it is returning not as a rival but as a partner both for the West and for those Arab regimes with which there were no relations before. Thus, Moscow expects Saudi royal prince to visit after the Lebanese guest.
There are no miracles: even if we help solve the specific Lebanese issue – the presidential election, neither the Lebanese not the Middle East knots will untangle right away. Yet, there is hope that a new and a more promising period in the Middle East politics is beginning for Russia.
Boris Makarenko, first deputy director general of the Political Technologies Center.
All the Article in Russian as of Nov. 20, 2007
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