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Vladimir Putin Rallied for War against Syria
// Lebanon’s ruling coalition asks Russia’s help
Moscow is to host talks between Lebanon’s parliament majority leader Saad Hariri and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday. The son of late former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri arrived to Moscow to ask the Russian leader to put pressure on Syria. This Wednesday, Lebanon’s parliament is to elect the country’s new president. However, pro-Syria and anti-Syria forces cannot reach compromise on the candidate. Almost hopeless of the conflict’s peaceful resolution, Saad Hariri will try using long-standing relations between Moscow and Damascus.
Two Camps
Lebanon’s capital Beirut has been a pilgrimage site for many European and Arab diplomats lately. Italian Foreign Minister Massimo D’Alema came there on Saturday, his French counterpart Bernard Kouchner arrived on Monday, and Arab League Secretary General Amr Musa is to visit soon. US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice did not come to Lebanon, but she telephones the country’s key politicians almost daily.
Each of the foreign diplomats is trying to help the two antagonistic Lebanese political groupings agree on a consensus nominee for president and prevent the country’s split into two warring camps. Yet, mediators’ efforts have been fruitless so far.
February 14, 2005, is the starting point in the current conflict of the two Lebanese antagonistic camps. It is when former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri was assassinated in Beirut. In the last months of his life, Hariri became one of the most ardent fighters against Syria’s influence on Lebanese politics. Hariri’s funeral grew into a bloodless Cedar Revolution. A tent camp, similar to one in Kiev, was built on Beirut’s main square, which forced the pro-Syria government to resign and to announce early parliamentary election. At the same time, Syria withdrew its troops from Lebanon, under the international community’s pressure.
Supporters of late Rafiq Hariri (mostly Sunni Muslims, Druze, and a large part of Lebanese Christians) won the election and formed a pro-West government. Former financier of the Hariri family Fouad Siniora became its leader, while Saad Hariri, son of the late former PM and the most influential figure in the camp, had to be content with the position of parliamentary majority leader. Temporary stability set in in Lebanon, and even the pro-Syria forces like Hezbollah and Amal Shiite movements joined the coalition government.
However, the pendulum swung to the other side a year later. The international investigative commission that probed into Rafiq Hariri’s assassination, laid the blame on Syrian special services, and a hostile struggle between Lebanon’s pro-Syria and anti-Syria forces began. Hezbollah radical movement withdrew from the coalition, and then entered war against Israel. In consequence of the military campaign in summer 2006, the popularity of pro-West forces fell drastically, while the influence of Hezbollah and its leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah considerably grew. Yet, Sheikh Nasrallah could not achieve the government’s resignation back then. Meanwhile, now is a suitable moment for Syrian revenge.
Lebanese President Emil Lahoud’s term expires on November 24. Lahoud was elected back when Damascus completely controlled the political situation in Lebanon, and is Syria’s dedicated supporter. The ruling coalition has been pushing for his resignation and for electing a pro-West politician to replace him since long ago. However, it cannot be done without the Shiite opposition’s agreement, although the Lebanese Constitution reserved the presidential post for a Christian candidate. Traditionally, the parliament’s speaker is a Shiite, and the prime minister is a Sunni.
The presidential election procedure is outlined rather generally in the Constitution. It does not say whether the president should be elected by the simple majority or by the absolute one. However, all previous presidents were elected by a two-thirds vote. Amal and Hezbollah Shiite movements insist that the two thirds should support the president this time as well. Yet, the ruling coalition does not have two thirds: the parliamentary majority has only 68 out of 127 votes.
Hezbollah’s design is simple: the parliament will be unable to elect any president by two thirds, which will lead to a political crisis and trigger early parliamentary election. Meanwhile, Hezbollah and other pro-Syria forces have more chances to win it than late Rafiq Hariri’s pro-West supporters who united into the March 14 Movement (the Cedar Revolution day).
Certainly, the March 14 Movement does not want early election. So, it insists the president should be elected by the simple majority of votes. Yet, Shiite movements promise not to recognize the president then, and to form their own alternative government, which will split the country into two parts: pro-Syria Shiite-Christian and pro-West Sunni-Christian.
The decisive parliamentary voting for the new Lebanese president is scheduled for Wednesday.
Two Benefits
Coming to Moscow on the eve of his country’s key voting, Lebanon’s parliament majority leader Saad Hariri is trying to prevent a catastrophe. He has no levers of pressure on Syria. So, he hopes that Vladimir Putin might have them. Hariri had already met the Russian leader in Sochi once, and hopes that Putin helps him, in memory of the old acquaintance.
Apparently, the Lebanese coalition leader will try to persuade Putin to telephone Syria’s President Bashar Assad so as to persuade him not to interfere in Lebanon’s domestic affairs. However, Saad Hariri has little hope for it. His second purpose is to secure the Kremlin’s support if the events in Lebanon develop along the worst scenario. That is, if the front clash between the March 14 Movement and Hezbollah takes place, Hariri wants Russia to recognize Fouad Siniora’s government as the lawful one.
Everyone in Lebanon remembers well how Israel, during the 2006 summer war, accused Russia that its weapons supplied to Syria fall into Hezbollah’s hands and get used in military actions. Apparently, Hariri might ask Putin to prevent Russian weapons from getting to Hezbollah this time, if a civil war begins in Lebanon.
The last but not the least, the visit has a psychological propaganda purpose. Many voters dislike the Lebanese ruling coalition’s pro-West image. So, by meeting with Putin in this decisive moment, Hariri wants to show he does not only look towards the West, but is also backed by Russia, while pro-Syria political forces, including Hezbollah, cannot boast such support.
Putin can hardly promise any specific help to Hariri, but he might gain a certain benefit from the Lebanese politician’s visit. Last week, trial of Russian citizen Sergei Vysotsky began in Lebanon. He is accused of having been a member of the Fatah Al-Islam terrorist grouping, taking part in its military actions against the Lebanese army for three months in Nahr al-Barid camp of Palestinian refugees. However, the Russian’s attorney Jalal al-Jurdi said the young man was involved into the terrorist organization by deceit and was nearly a hostage there. If Vysotsky is found guilty, he faces death penalty. However, Putin can ask Hariri to help extradite the Russian back home. Regardless of whether Vysotsky is guilty or not, it might have quite a strong propagandistic effect inside Russia.
Two Scenarios
While Saad Hariri is in last-hope talks in Moscow, his supporters and opponents will be trying to reach consensus in Beirut. Lebanon's Christian Maronite Patriarch Mar-Nasrallah Boutros Sfeir has already been invited to join the dialogue. At mediators’ request, he compiled his own list of probable presidential candidates and yesterday submitted it to Saad Hariri and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, a Shiite, who is the official representative of the pro-Syria camp in all negotiations.
The list was not published, but the candidates mentioned there can be conjectured. Fist, these are two Christian politicians nominated by the ruling coalition: Nasib Lahoud and Boutros Harb. Also, it is one of the pro-Syria camp’s leaders and head of the Free Patriotic Movement Christian party Michel Aoun. Beside the partisan figures, the list has a few compromise candidates: parliament deputy Robert Ganem, former ministers Damianos Kattar and Michel Edde, bankers Joseph Tarabai, Michel Khoury and Riad Salame, former army commander Michel Suleiman.
However, there is little chance that any compromise will be reached on Tuesday. Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah is obviously displeased that all negotiators discuss the presidential candidate not with him, the most popular politician in Lebanon, but with more moderate Nabih Berri. So, in his last public statement, he actually urged to give up looking for consensus. He said that Emil Lahoud should remain president even after his term expires, so that “thieves and murderers do not overtake the presidential position”. Thus, Sheikh Nasrallah is very determined now, and is not afraid of the country’s likely split and a new civil war.
Mikhail Zygar
All the Article in Russian as of Nov. 20, 2007
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