Americans value stability in Azerbaijan above all, and as long as Aliyev Jnr. is able to ensure it, this country should not be afraid of any troubles from the United States, says Gennady Sysoev.
Photo: Vasily Shaposhnikov
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Azerbaijan's Problems Are Now America's Headache
The Price of the Question
The Unites States called on Azeri President Ikham Aliyev to stop persecuting independent media in what came as the first harsh words from America to the Azeri leader. But it does not mean that Washington blacklisted him as another authoritarian former Soviet leader with an eye to oust him. Americans value stability in Azerbaijan above all, and as long as Aliyev Jnr. is able to ensure it, this country should not be afraid of any troubles from the United States.
Azerbaijan holds a special place in Washington’s strategy for the range of former Soviet republics. American companies have invested so much money in Azeri oil in the past few years that this country’s stability has become not Baku’s but Washington’s concern. As an old Jewish joke says, if Abraham owes Moses $10, this is Abraham’s problem, if it is $100,000, this is already Moses’ headache. The only difference with Azerbaijan is that the price of the question in Baku is worth dozens of billion dollars.
Washington does not really care who is going to ensure this stability – Baku’s incumbent authorities or those who dream of replacing them. The formula of the power struggle in Azerbaijan is dead simple and cynical. Ilkham Aliyev will not be threatened of being toppled if he proves to the strategic investor that he will be able to ensure stability in the country. Opposition will have real chances to bid for power only if it convinces the same interested party that it enjoys popular support and, therefore, is the only guarantor of stability.
The United States would obviously prefer stability in Azerbaijan secured by democratic means. When Ikham Aliyev clamped down on his rivals from his father’s old supporters ahead of the parliamentary two years ago arresting many of them, President George Bush immediately assured the Azeri leader of his support. The arrested people were deemed corrupt and notorious personalities, and their prosecution generally fell into the democratic framework. This time around, authorities in Baku started stifling independent media, which badly damaged President Aliyev’s image. So the United States reminded him that he needs to keep within certain limits, but that was it.
Washington uses a similar approach in relations with another South Caucasian ally, Georgia. After giving some sort of blessing for Mikhail Saakashvili to disperse an opposition rally, the United States is now scolding the Georgian leader for emergency rule and shutting down independent TV channels only.
It means that a CIS country with a high position on the American strategy for the post-Soviet space will enjoy a high degree of Washington’s tolerance to violations of democratic rights and freedoms. The crucial thing for the United States is a guarantee of stability from a strategic ally as it will ensure the preservation and multiplication of what has been invested in the country. The price of the guarantees is always negotiable.
Gennady Sysoev, columnist
All the Article in Russian as of Nov. 14, 2007
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