CFE for Election
// The U.S. made an attractive offer to Russia
The State Duma of Russia is to pass a draft bill “About suspending the CFE Treaty by Russia” today. According to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s plan, withdrawing from the CFE is to become a strong response to the U.S. deployment of missile defense system in Europe. Ahead of the Duma session, the U.S. Department of State announced it is ready to make concessions to the Kremlin, so as to prevent the CFE Treaty termination. Meanwhile, Moscow’s demands concerning the CFE are almost unfeasible for the United States. However, Washington might meet the Kremlin halfway on another issue: it might change its stand on the upcoming Duma election in Russia, by acknowledging it democratic.
Treaty that Nobody Cares about
The State Duma has all chances to unanimously pass the presidential draft bill on Russia’s withdrawal from the CFE Treaty. The chamber’s speaker Boris Gryzlov said on Tuesday that all Duma factions intend to vote for setting the moratorium on the CFE. In fact, the Duma voting will not have any legal consequences, because the withdrawal procedure in the CFE Treaty itself is described quite vaguely. However, international law experts agree that Moscow can terminate the treaty only with notifying its partners 150 days in advance. These 150 days (since the signing of the president’s decree) expire in a month, on December 12, 2007. So, passing the draft bill in the Duma is Russia’s last warning to the West, and a reminder that Moscow is not kidding.
President Putin for the first time mentioned Russia’s withdrawal from the CFE in his address to the Federal Assembly this year. He directly linked that possibility of the demarche with the U.S. deployment of missile defense in Europe. The West did not take Moscow’s threat too much to heart, because the CFE itself is actually an outdated treaty. It limits the number of tanks and heavy armaments which the European countries are allowed to possess. Yet, the number of tanks allowed by the treaty seems excessive when considering the 21st century’s high technologies. Both Russia and the NATO states now have far less armaments than allowed by the CFE quotas, because so much heavy military equipment in Europe is not needed anymore.
Threatening to withdraw from the CFE, Moscow set two demands. First, the NATO states should ratify the treaty (so far, it has been ratified just by Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, and Ukraine). Second, the Baltic states should sign the treaty. However, the West refused at the OSCE summit in Vienna this summer to satisfy Moscow’s demands, and repeated its former position: the treaty will be ratified only after Russia completely withdraws its troops from Georgia and Moldova, that is fulfills its obligations undertaken at the OSCE summit in Istanbul in 1999.
Then, Putin signed the decree on setting the moratorium on the CFE. Russia stopped letting European inspectors into its military bases, and, giving a plausible excuse, declined participation in joint military exercise. At last, during the visit of US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and US Defense Secretary Robert Gates to Moscow a month ago, Putin made it clear that Russia’s withdrawal from the CFE is just a symbolic step and Moscow will do more. The Russian president threatened to withdraw from the US-Soviet treaty on medium- and shorter-range missiles signed 20 years ago.
Concessions Never to be Made
In late October, the U.S., Germany, and France expressed open concern over the position of Russia which is ready to withdraw from the CFE on December 12, and then to exit all other key treaties. A week ago, German and French foreign ministers Frank-Walter Steinmeier and Bernard Kouchner published in Frankfurter Allgemeine and Le Figaro newspapers a letter to the Russian authorities urging them not to withdraw from the CFE. The letter’s central message was that “destroying the CFE might lead to a new arms race and foment new conflicts”.
Nearly at the same time, U.S. and Russian diplomats held talks in Berlin, where they discussed possible mutual concessions. At a press conference after the talks, they announced that the way to compromise had been found, and that a certain big deal was about to happen, which would concern not just the CFE issue, but also Russia’s stand on Kosovo and Iran. US Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Fried for the first time admitted that Washington intends to speed up the CFE ratification by the NATO states, that is to fulfill the first of the two demands of the Kremlin. At a recent meeting with NATO ambassadors, Fried said that during their last visit to Moscow Rice and Gates “put out some new ideas aimed at overcoming the stalemate which is blocking the adapted CFE Treaty’s ratification”. “We hope for active diplomacy and progress before December 12,” said Fried.
Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov as well spoke of a certain big deal, for which Russia and the U.S. are getting ready, after addressing the Federation Council on Tuesday. “Negotiations on a whole number of large and important international issues meet in one point of time. The CFE is one of these issues. There also are missile defense, Kosovo, and Iran. All these situations require only the method of collective and legal actions,” said Lavrov, almost echoing the words of the US diplomats pronounced after the meeting in Berlin.
The US administration’s Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe held hearings in Washington on Monday. Fried’s deputy David Kramer fully described possible US concessions. “If Russia is prepared to commit to move on its remaining Istanbul commitments, some NATO Allies are open to beginning the ratification process while Russia is still in the process of completing them,” said Kramer. It actually means that some NATO states might start ratifying the CFE if Russia promises once again that it will eventually withdraw troops from Transdniestria. Meanwhile, a source in the US Department of State said that the U.S. is prepared not to insist on Russian troops’ withdrawal from Abkhazia yet. The troops can stay there as part of the OSCE peacekeeping force. However, Russia will have to take away weapons and peacekeepers from Transdniestria.
Kramer also made an important reservation, saying that the US administration “is not seeking to prejudge either the calendar for Senate action on CFE, or the outcome”. “We would, however, consult with the Senate about ratification if we and Russia are able to reach a deal that prevents Russia from suspending and moves the ball forward on the Istanbul commitments,” added the US official.
The reminder that it is up to the Senate to make the final decision on CFE ratification completely clarifies the matter. In the same way, Russia and the U.S. have been in talks on lifting the Jackson-Vanik amendment off Russia for many years. George Bush regularly promises to Vladimir Putin to do everything to liquidate the amendment, but it always gets stuck in the Senate’s reluctance. Considering the huge differences between the Congress and the White House now, the promise to ratify the CFE is bluff: the US administration is definitely unable to get the required outcome of the voting in the Senate.
European countries do not hurry to ratify the CFE either. For instance, the letter of the German and French foreign ministers said nothing at all on the issue. The Baltic states, which should sign the CFE according to Russia’s demand, have already explained their position. They are ready to sign the treaty, but only when it is ratified by all its participants and when it becomes open for including new countries. So, the chief concession offered by the U.S. to Russia is predeterminedly unfeasible.
Deal which is Not Discussed
Reactivation of US diplomats ahead of December 12 certainly should persuade the Kremlin not to hurry exiting the CFE. Today’s voting in the Duma will definitely become an extra trump card in Putin’s hands. However, it does not oblige him to withdraw from the treaty. That delay is important for the Bush administration in the pre-election year. It allows avoiding the traditional accusation that Bush “lost Russia” and did not prevent the CFE collapse. If the White House manages to put off the treaty’s dissolution, it will later be able to shift all responsibility on the Democrats-controlled Congress.
However, US diplomats hardly conceal that they became so active not jut due to the upcoming December 12, but also to another date, December 10. That is the deadline for the UN Security Council to adopt a decision on the final status of Kosovo. So far, Russia has remained the major obstacle for adopting a resolution which proclaims Kosovo’s independence. Thus, the US Department of State is ready to do everything to make Moscow abstain. Washington has already worked out a strategy of concessions which the U.S. can make to achieve the necessary Kosovo resolution’s adoption. Certainly, Washington is not going to concede on key issues like the missile defense in Europe. That is why the CFE issue comes to the forefront.
Russian diplomats and officials surely understand how unfeasible the US promises are. Yet, they actively engage in discussing the “big deal” anyway. The matter is, the dates of December 10 and 12, so important for the U.S., are outshined by December 2 – a date much more significant for the Russian authorities. Russia is to have State Duma election that day, and it is the Kremlin’s chief interest now.
The U.S. is also pointedly watching the beginning Duma campaign. Last week for instance, US Under Secretary of State Nicholas Burns said that Washington is concerned over the fact that Russia delays inviting foreign observers to the election. However, the statement was made when all invitations to Western observers had already been sent out.
According to Kramer, the talks on the “big deal” will be carried on soon, and the final decision will be made before December 12. That result can be achieved only if the West’s stand on the Duma election becomes one of the bargain elements.
By the way, George Bush is to meet with German Chancellor Angela Merkel at the upcoming weekend. Sources say they are to discuss Kosovo, Iran, missile defense, the CFE, and relations with Russia. The talks are to take place at Bush’ ranch in Crawford, Texas, where the US president invites only his closest partners (the ranch was visited by Vladimir Putin, Tony Blair, and Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah). A bit earlier, Bush is to meet with French President Nicolas Sarkozy in Kennebunkport. Apparently, the “big deal” involving Kosovo, the CFE, and the Duma election cannot really take place without consulting Merkel and Sarkozy.
Mikhail Zygar, Suzanna Farizova
All the Article in Russian as of Nov. 07, 2007
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