President of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs Alexander Shokhin
Photo: Êèðèëë Òóëèí
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Economics Ministry Predicts Fall in Competitiveness
Ministry of Economic Development and Trade officials intend to use the so-called innovational scenario as the basis of the long-term strategy for the development of the country. It is the most optimistic of three scenarios worked out. The “Conception for Long-Term Socio-Economic Development through 2020” will be submitted to the government on October 25, considered by it on November 8 and discussed by the State Council on December 19.
The innovative scenario assumes a medium pace of growth of the GDP from 2011 to 2015 at 6.3 percent, and 6.6 percent between 2016 and 2020. The “energy raw materials” scenario posits 5.7 and 5 percent growth in those respective periods, and the “inertial” scenario suggests an even lower, 3.2 percent, growth rate from 2011 to 2020. In short, the government cannot even hope for any quickening of economic growth.
It is unsurprising that businessmen were not dissatisfied with the conception when it was discussed at the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs. RUIE president Alexander Shokhin was dubious of the claim of Deputy Economics Minister Andrey Belousov that the basic scenario will allow the maximum opportunities for the use of human capital. Nor did he like it that the participation of the business community was not included in any of the scenarios.
The businessmen would have been even more amazed had they calculated the annual growth of real income and the productive of labor as cumulative figures, for they would have seen that, even in the most optimistic scenario, the growth of salaries far exceeds the growth of productivity. In other words, the Economics Ministry is already planning for a long-range drop in competitiveness.
www.kommersant.com
All the Article in Russian as of Oct. 23, 2007
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